** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 19.2N 137.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 260KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.5N 134.1E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 24.1N 131.4E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 26.8N 130.0E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 930 HPA AT 19.2N 137.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 21.5N 133.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 24.2N 131.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.0N 129.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 19.2N 137.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 21.5N 133.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 040000UTC 24.2N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 050000UTC 27.0N 129.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 996 HPA AT 26.6N 115.5E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 27.8N 113.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 26.6N 115.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 27.8N 113.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 020000UTC 19.2N 137.5E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030000UTC 21.6N 134.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 101KT 48HR POSITION 040000UTC 24.0N 131.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 101KT 72HR POSITION 050000UTC 26.6N 130.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 12 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUO USLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TS 0513 TALIM ANALYSIS POSITION 020000UTC 26.6N 115.5E MOVEMENT WNW 14KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 41KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 021200UTC 27.4N 113.8E WITHIN 45NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.3N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.3N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.4N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.7N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.7N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 27.6N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.6N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 137.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 020225 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES...1175 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1475 MILES...2375 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 30 MPH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 52.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 020227 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005 0300Z FRI SEP 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 52.3W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 52.3W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.1N 53.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.0N 53.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.0N 53.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 53.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 52.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 020239 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEE HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE DEPRESSION NOW CONSISTS ONLY OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON LEE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE DEGENERATION OF THE CONVECTION. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25 KT WINDS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT LOW CENTER THROUGH 48 HOURS. LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE 12 HOUR MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/06. NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 32.4N 52.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 33.1N 53.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 53.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/1200Z 35.0N 53.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 53.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 020240 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN SEP 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.0N 53.6W 53 X X X 53 37.0N 53.6W 8 7 3 X 18 35.0N 53.7W 28 1 X X 29 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 2 X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 020241 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 0300Z FRI SEP 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 47.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 47.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.2N 48.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.4N 50.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.9N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 020241 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1035 MILES...1665 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...20.4 N... 47.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 020242 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN SEP 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.4N 50.2W 41 X X X 41 25.5N 53.0W 1 12 7 2 22 23.9N 51.5W 17 10 X 1 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 020249 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CATORCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST JUEVES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CATORCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.4 OESTE O COMO A 1035 MILLAS... 1665 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...20.4 NORTE... 47.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 020301 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION... WITH JUST A VERY LIMITED AREA OF -70C CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NO GREATER THAN 2.0... AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPOSE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS IMPEDING ANY STRENGTHENING... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR...ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THE PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE THEREFORE LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THE GFS EVEN FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE... THE SHIPS FORECASTS WEAK SHEAR AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10... A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST THAN EARLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM...AND A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERHIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 20.4N 47.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.2N 48.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 22.4N 50.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 23.9N 51.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 53.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 55.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 930 HPA AT 19.4N 137.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 21.7N 133.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 19.4N 137.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 21.7N 133.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 040000UTC 24.2N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 050000UTC 27.0N 129.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 27N 115E MOVE NW 10KT PRES 998HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 020300 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TD 0513 TALIM ANALYSIS POSITION 020300UTC 27.5N 115.2E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 020535 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 47.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2005 19.7N 47.0W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2005 21.2N 48.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2005 22.0N 49.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2005 25.2N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2005 26.9N 52.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2005 28.1N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2005 29.3N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2005 30.3N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2005 31.7N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.7N 51.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2005 32.7N 51.9W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2005 33.1N 53.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2005 33.9N 54.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2005 36.5N 55.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.1N 33.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2005 8.1N 33.3W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2005 9.2N 35.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2005 9.8N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2005 10.8N 38.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2005 11.2N 40.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2005 12.2N 42.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2005 12.5N 45.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2005 13.7N 47.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2005 14.6N 50.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2005 15.5N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2005 16.5N 55.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 17.7N 57.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2005 18.5N 59.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020535