** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 930 HPA AT 18.3N 139.8E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 20.3N 136.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 22.9N 133.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 25.7N 131.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 18.3N 139.8E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 325NM FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 20.3N 136.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 031200UTC 22.9N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 041200UTC 25.7N 131.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 011252 RRA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NABI (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13 800 PM GUAM LST THU SEP 1 2005 ...TYPHOON NABI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NABI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 435 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TYPHOON NABI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON NABI IS A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. NABI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...17.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 140.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE ON TYPHOON NABI. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 25.5N 118.0E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 29.2N 113.6E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 18.3N 139.8E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 136.0E 925HPA 55M/S P+48HR 22.5N 132.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 25.3N 130.5E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 985 HPA AT 25.6N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 27.6N 115.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 25.6N 118.2E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 27.6N 115.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011300 UTC 00HR 25.6N 117.9E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 139.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 139.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.2N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.0N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.9N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.0N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.1N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 28.4N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 139.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 40 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 026 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 25.9N 118.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 118.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 26.8N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 117.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 011432 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005 1500Z THU SEP 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 51.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 51.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.3N 51.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.5N 52.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.1N 52.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 011432 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES...1255 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1445 MILES...2325 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEWHOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...LATER TODAY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LEE BECOMES A WEAK LOW LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 51.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 011434 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BASED PRIMARILY ON A 31-KNOT WIND OBSERVATION FORM THE SHIP ELTZ7 AT 12Z. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR AN UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE OCEAN IS NOT COOL. THEREFORE...SOME CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.9N 51.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 32.3N 51.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.1N 52.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 011434 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN SEP 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.5N 52.0W 53 X X X 53 36.1N 52.0W 13 4 2 X 19 34.5N 52.0W 26 1 1 X 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 011434 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BASED PRIMARILY ON A 31-KNOT WIND OBSERVATION FORM THE SHIP ELTZ7 AT 12Z. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR AN UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE OCEAN IS NOT COOL. THEREFORE...SOME CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.9N 51.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 32.3N 51.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.1N 52.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 011434 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN SEP 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.5N 52.0W 53 X X X 53 36.1N 52.0W 13 4 2 X 19 34.5N 52.0W 26 1 1 X 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 011441 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 LATEST SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST AND SEPARATE ITSELF FROM THE SYSTEM...THEREBY REDUCING THE SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING STEADY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE SLOW STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER SHEAR AND WARMER WATER SHOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...TAKING THE SYSTEM TO 55 KT AT 120 HOURS WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE 86 KT SHIPS IS FORECASTING AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS MODEL BEYOND 48 HOURS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.0N 46.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.6N 48.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.4N 50.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.2N 52.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.1N 54.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.0N 60.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 011441 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005 1500Z THU SEP 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.1W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.1W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.2N 52.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 26.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 31.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 46.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 011441 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN SEP 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.4N 50.4W 54 X X X 54 22.1N 54.0W X 17 13 1 31 21.2N 52.3W 6 33 X X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011400 UTC 00HR 25.8N 117.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT34 KNHC 011444 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...1795 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 46.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 011451 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL LEE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 01 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL LEE APARENTA ESTAR PERDIENDO SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL LEE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.5 OESTE O COMO A 780 MILLAS...1255 KM...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1445 MILLAS...2325 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. LA DEPRESION SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO POCO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS PERO DEBE COMENZAR A MOVERSE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE QUE LEE SE CONVIERTA EN UN CENTRO DE BAJA PRESION DEBIL HOY O EL VIERNES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MB...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...31.9 NORTE... 51.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 139.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 139.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.2N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.0N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.9N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 026 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 25.9N 118.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 118.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 26.8N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 117.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 RRC *** 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.0N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 139.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 139.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.2N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.0N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.9N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.0N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.1N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 28.4N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 139.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 40 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 RRD *** 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.1N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 28.4N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 139.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 40 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 011512 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CATORCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...SE FORMA UNA NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA NUEVA FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL CATORCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.1 OESTE O COMO A 1115 MILLAS... 1795 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH... 26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...19.0 NORTE... 46.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR MOLLEDA/AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011500 UTC 00HR 25.9N 117.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011500 UTC 00HR 25.9N 117.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 930 HPA AT 18.6N 139.3E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 20.6N 135.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 18.6N 139.3E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 325NM FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 20.6N 135.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 031200UTC 22.9N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 041200UTC 25.7N 131.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 25.8N 117.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 27.6N 114.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP32 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 985 HPA AT 25.8N 117.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 27.6N 114.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011600 UTC 00HR 26.0N 117.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 0513 TALIM (0513) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL ON STS 0513 TALIM (0513) AT 011200 UTC IS VALID TILL 36 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 011743 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 45.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2005 18.8N 45.6W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2005 19.4N 48.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2005 19.8N 50.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2005 21.0N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2005 22.7N 53.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2005 24.5N 54.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2005 32.0N 51.8W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2005 32.2N 52.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2005 32.2N 53.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2005 33.0N 53.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2005 33.9N 53.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.0N 29.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2005 8.0N 29.6W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2005 8.1N 33.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2005 8.6N 35.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2005 9.5N 36.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2005 10.5N 38.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2005 11.4N 41.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2005 12.3N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2005 13.1N 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2005 13.8N 49.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2005 14.4N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2005 15.2N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2005 15.9N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2005 16.5N 62.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011743 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011700 UTC 00HR 26.1N 117.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H=