** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 25.0N 119.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 17.7N 140.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 136.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 22.1N 133.3E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 24.5N 131.0E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 25.0N 119.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 28.0N 115.1E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 25.4N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 27.5N 115.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0513 TALIM (0513) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 25.4N 119.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 27.5N 115.6E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTIN20 DEMS 010700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 01-09-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT 28.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) --- ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 17.7N 140.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 19.5N 137.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 030600UTC 22.2N 134.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 040600UTC 25.3N 132.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 17.7N 140.7E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 19.5N 137.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 22.2N 134.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 25.3N 132.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 18 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTER HAS SEPARAT ED FROM LOW LEVEL CIRCURATION CENTER AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0514 NABI (0514) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0514 NABI ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 17.7N 140.7E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 19.8N 137.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 22.0N 134.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT 72HR POSITION 040600UTC 25.1N 132.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 010700 UTC 00HR 25.3N 119.1E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT73 KNHC 010831 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN SEP 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.4N 51.6W 59 X X X 59 BURGEO NFLD X X X 2 2 34.6N 51.6W 25 1 1 X 27 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 3 3 35.8N 51.6W 14 4 2 1 21 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 4 4 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 2 2 SYDNEY NS X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 010831 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005 ...DISORGANIZED LEE RE-LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 790 MILES...1270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1435 MILES...2310 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF LEE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 010831 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005 0900Z THU SEP 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 51.3W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 51.3W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.7N 51.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 33.4N 51.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.6N 51.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.8N 51.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.0N 51.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 51.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 010832 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 A REVIEW OF MICROWAVE DATA STARTING AT ABOUT 31/1720Z SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LEE MOVED NORTHWARD BETWEEN 31/1800Z- 01/0000Z AND NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THEN...AND DID NOT FOLLOW THE CONVECTION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS 50W. AT THE MOMENT...A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXISTS ABOUT 90 N MI W OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...AND WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A CONSIDERABLE RE-LOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A 29 KT WIND REPORTED BY SHIP ELTZ7. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE CENTER OF LEE APPEARS TO HAVE MADE A PARTIAL LOOP AS IT MERGES WITH A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS FORMING TO ITS NORTH. MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAD A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE CENTER TOO FAR EAST AND A FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AND DRIFTS LEE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR AND THEN TURN LEE NORTHWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION... CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ERRATIC LOOPING MOTION DURING THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS LEE AND THE OTHER LOW FINISH THEIR MERGER. THE MERGER OF LEE AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW TROPICAL LEE ACTUALLY IS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. NEITHER THE GFDL OR SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 96 HR...AND THE CANADIAN BREAKS THE CIRCULATION OPEN INTO A TROUGH AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION COULD RE-FORM FOR A TIME NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...LEE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW OR TO EXTRATROPCIAL STATUS WITH 24 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 31.9N 51.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 32.7N 51.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 33.4N 51.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 34.6N 51.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 35.8N 51.6W 25 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 38.0N 51.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 010800 UTC 00HR 25.4N 118.9E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 140.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 140.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.5N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.3N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.2N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.2N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 25.4N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 27.6N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 140.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL-DEVELOPED 25 NM EYE. MAX- IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 25.1N 119.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 119.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 26.0N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.5N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 119.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL SIGNIFICANT DISTRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 25.1N 119.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 119.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 26.0N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.5N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 119.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL SIGNIFICANT DISTRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.5N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 119.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL SIGNIFICANT DISTRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 25.1N 119.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 119.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 26.0N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 140.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 140.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.5N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.3N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.2N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 RRD *** 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 25.4N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 27.6N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 140.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL-DEVELOPED 25 NM EYE. MAX- IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 RRC *** 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.2N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 140.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 140.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.5N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.3N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.2N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.2N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 25.4N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 27.6N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 140.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL-DEVELOPED 25 NM EYE. MAX- IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 010900 UTC 00HR 25.5N 118.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 28.8N 114.4E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 980 HPA AT 25.7N 119.1E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 27.6N 115.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 25.7N 119.1E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 27.6N 115.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 0513 TALIM (0513) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL ON STS 0513 TALIM (0513) AT 010600 UTC IS VALID TILL 48 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 17.8N 140.2E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 19.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 17.8N 140.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 19.9N 136.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 030600UTC 22.2N 134.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 040600UTC 25.3N 132.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON TALIM (0513) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON TALIM (0513) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 011100 UTC 00HR 25.3N 118.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 25KM/H=