** WTPQ20 BABJ 311800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 311800 UTC 00HR 24.0N 121.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 210KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 118.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 28.8N 116.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 31.2N 115.1E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NABI 0514 (0514) INITIAL TIME 311800 UTC 00HR 16.7N 142.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.6N 138.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 20.6N 135.0E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 23.3N 132.8E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 311835 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NABI (14W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A 500 AM GUAM LST THU SEP 1 2005 ...TYPHOON NABI NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE MARIANAS... THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN IS CANCELLED AS OF 5 AM GUAM LST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN IS CANCELLED AS OF 5 AM GUAM LST. AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NABI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 265 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA 280 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 230 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 230 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN. TYPHOON NABI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH...MAKING NABI A CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON. NABI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION...16.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH. FOR MORE INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...REFER TO TYPHOON NABI LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP22 RJTD 311800 *** WARNING 311800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 950 HPA AT 23.8N 121.4E TAIWAN MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 25.5N 119.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 26.8N 116.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 28.4N 115.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 311800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 311800UTC 23.8N 121.4E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 150NM 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 26.8N 116.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 021800UTC 28.4N 115.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ81 PGUM 311859 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-PMZ154-312300- TYPHOON NABI (14W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 515 AM GUAM LST THU SEP 1 2005 ...TYPHOON NABI NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE MARIANAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN WAS CANCELLED AT 5 AM LST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN WAS CANCELLED AT 5 AM LST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NABI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 265 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA 280 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 230 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 230 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH. TYPHOON NABI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. ...TINIAN...SAIPAN...ROTA...AGRIHAN... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED AT TINIAN...SAIPAN...ROTA AND AGRIHAN. AVOID EXPOSED BEACHES AND REEFS...WHERE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TODAY...DECREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF AT 12 TO 14 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY INSIDE THE REEFS. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON NABI. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 311800UTC 16.7N 142.6E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 120NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 18.0N 139.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 021800UTC 20.3N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 031800UTC 23.4N 132.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 311800 *** WARNING 311800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 16.7N 142.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 18.0N 139.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 20.3N 135.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 23.4N 132.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 311800UTC 16.7N 142.6E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 120NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 18.0N 139.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 021800UTC 20.3N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 031800UTC 23.4N 132.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 311800 *** WARNING 311800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 16.7N 142.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 18.0N 139.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 20.3N 135.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 23.4N 132.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 311900 UTC 00HR 24.0N 121.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 210KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 311800UTC 16.7N 142.6E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 120NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 18.0N 139.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 021800UTC 20.3N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 031800UTC 23.4N 132.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 311800 *** WARNING 311800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 16.7N 142.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 18.0N 139.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 20.3N 135.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 23.4N 132.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 311900 UTC 00HR 24.0N 121.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 210KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 311945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311800 UTC, TYPHOON TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT23 KNHC 312025 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005 2100Z WED AUG 31 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 49.7W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 49.7W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 39.0N 51.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 312025 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS/NESDIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THIS REQUIRES UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AROUND A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEPT THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON THE LASTEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE A LOW PRESSURE AREA...OR THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...AROUND THE LARGER UPPER-LOW AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ANY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 30.5N 49.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 49.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 35.0N 49.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 37.0N 50.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 39.0N 51.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 312025 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 31 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...FORMS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 900 MILES...1445 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1390 MILES...2240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...30.5 N... 49.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 312025 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS/NESDIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THIS REQUIRES UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AROUND A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEPT THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON THE LASTEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE A LOW PRESSURE AREA...OR THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...AROUND THE LARGER UPPER-LOW AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ANY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 30.5N 49.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 49.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 35.0N 49.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 37.0N 50.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 39.0N 51.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 312026 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 31 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT SEP 3 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.0N 49.0W 28 1 X 1 30 BURGEO NFLD X X X 2 2 35.0N 49.5W 18 3 1 1 23 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2 36.0N 50.0W 10 6 2 1 19 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KWNH 312053 *** TCPAT2 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW...THREAT FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG ITS PATH... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW YORK...VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE. AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK...MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 MPH. IT IS ALMOST COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 8AM EDT...EXCEPT WHEN NOTED... ...MAINE... MILLINOCKET 1.41...THROUGH 2PM EDT EAST MACHIAS 1.04 ANDOVER 1.01 BINGHAM 1.01 ...VERMONT... WAITSFIELD 1.75 BURLINGTON INTL 1.71...THROUGH 2PM EDT WORCESTER 1.46 HINESBURG 1.45 LYNDONVILLE 1.45 ...CONNECTICUT... HAMPTON 1.58 ...NEW HAMPSHIRE... MOUNT WASHINGTON 2.59...THROUGH 2PM EDT NORTH STRATFORD 1.50 BURLIN MUNICIPAL 1.09...THROUGH 2PM EDT ...MASSACHUSETTS... PROVINCETOWN 3.95 TAUNTON 2.70 NEW BEDFORD 1.34 ...RHODE ISLAND... PROVIDENCE 3.45 PAWTUCKET 3.13...THROUGH 2PM EDT NEWPORT 2.60 TIVERTON 2.10 ...NEW YORK... BATAVIA 3.80 WELLSVILLE 3.72 BENNINGTON 3.50 MASSENA/RICHARDS 3.50...THROUGH 2PM EDT SALAMANCA 3.41 ALLEGANY STATE PARK 3.38 IROQUOIS 3.30 FORT DRUM/WHEELER 3.24...THROUGH 2PM EDT BUFFALO 2.76 ...PENNSYLVANIA... BRADFORD 4.14...THROUGH 2PM EDT LOYALSOCKVILLE 3.50 CARTER CAMP 3.32 LAPORTE 3.17 MASTEN 2.70 BARBOURS 1SW 2.70 PORT ALLEGHENY 2.53 DUSHORE 3SSW 2.50 MEADVILLE 2.25 PITTSBURGH 1.70 ...WEST VIRGINIA... TOMLINSON RUN 2.86 SUMMIT POINT 1NNW 1.59 RANSON 1.07 ...MARYLAND... THURMONT FALLS 2.30 SHARPSBURG 1.79 ...VIRGINIA... FINCASTLE 2.35 FRONT ROYAL 1ESE 1.80 ...OHIO... LIMA 5.84 AKRON-CANTON RGNL AIRPORT 3.94 NEWARK-HEATH AIRPORT 3.81 OHIO ST U/COLUMBUS 3.80 AIRBORNE AIRPARK 3.36 CINCINNATI/LUNKIN 3.36 HARRY CLEVER FIELD 3.29 ...KENTUCKY... BARREN RIVER LAKE 6.15 BOWLING GREEN 5.00 CADIZ 4.15 PADUCAH/BARKLEY 3.66 HERNDON 3.60 HOPKINSVILE 3.45 COBB 3.28 ...INDIANA... SHELBYVILLE 3.29 HARDIN RIDGE 3.08 EVANSVILLE 3.03 MUNCIE/JOHNSON FIELD 2.56 INDIANAPOLIS 2.23 ...FLORIDA... PERRINE 16.33 HOMESTEAD 14.41 FLORIDA CITY 12.25 HOMESTEAD GENERAL AP 11.80 CUTLER RIDGE 11.13 KEY WEST 9.92 CUTLER RIDGE 3 NE 9.65 ...LOUISIANA... BIG BRANCH 14.82 BAPTIST/NATALBANY RVR 10.49 BUSH/BOGUE CHITTO RVR 10.05 PEARL RIVER 9.79 KENNER 9.72 CAMP COVINGTON/BOGUE FALAYA RVR 9.63 DEER RANGE 9.25 VENICE/CORP OF ENGINEERS 8.77 COVINGTON/BOGUE FALAYA RVR 7.23 NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT 7.20 ...MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK 9.84 CAESAR 8.98 NOXAPATER 8.30 BLACK CREEK 7.64 HATTIESBURG/BOUIE CREEK 7.33 IUKA 7.12 KOSCIUSKO 6.90 CONEHATTA 6.80 BROOKLYN/BLACK CREEK 6.78 YAZOO CITY 5 NNE 6.50 ...ALABAMA... RED BAY 12NNE 6.44 RED BAY 5.63 HAMILTON 3S 4.78 HODGES 3.87 MUSCLE SHOALS RGNL ARPT 3.74 MOULTON 3.73 SAMANTHA 4N 3.65 ...TENNESSEE... FAIRVIEW BOWIE NATURE CENTER 4.40 SPRINGFIELD 3.94 MEMPHIS NWS OFFICE 3.78 WARNER PARK 3.60 DOVER 3.52 ORLINDA 3.46 KINGSTON SPRINGS 3.40 ...GEORGIA... JULIETTE 3.30 CAMILLA 3S 3.16 HELEN 7N 3.09 CLAYTON 10W 3.08 HIAWASSEE 3SSE 3.01 JACKSON 7E 2.95 TIGER 7WSW 2.92 ...ARKANSAS... BLYTHEVILLE 2.56 JONESBORO 1.97 WEST MEMPHIS 1.78 RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE RAINFALL ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THE REMNANT LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...42.2 NORTH...75.4 WEST... MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB OR 29.44 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. TRIMARCO $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 312000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 312000 UTC 00HR 24.0N 121.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 210KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 121.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 121.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 24.6N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 25.4N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.1N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 121.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/3101952ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 142.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 142.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.7N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.5N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.4N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.6N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.7N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 26.5N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 142.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 312100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 312100 UTC 00HR 24.0N 121.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 210KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.5N 118.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 28.9N 115.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 31.3N 114.4E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 311800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 31 AUGUST, TYPHOON (TALIM (0513) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.8N 121.4E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 400KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 400KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011800 25.8N 116.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 311800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 31 AUGUST TYPHOON (TALIM) (0513) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATAAT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 011800 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE -HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 312135 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NABI (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 800 AM GUAM LST THU SEP 1 2005 ...TYPHOON NABI MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NABI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 280 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA 320 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 260 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN. TYPHOON NABI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NABI IS A CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH. NABI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...17.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ31 RJTD 311800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0513 TALIM (0513) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL ON TY 0513 TALIM (0513) AT 1 8 UTC IS VALID TILL 54 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 312100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 121.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN32 PGTW 312100 RRB *** 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 121.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 24.6N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 25.4N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.1N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 121.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 121.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 121.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 24.6N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 25.4N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.1N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 121.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/3101952ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 142.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 142.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.7N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.5N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTJP32 RJTD 312100 *** WARNING 312100. WARNING VALID 012100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 950 HPA AT 23.6N 120.9E TAIWAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 25.8N 118.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 27.1N 116.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 RRC *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.4N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.6N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 RRD *** 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.7N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 26.5N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 142.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 312100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 312100UTC 23.6N 120.9E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 012100UTC 27.1N 116.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 021800UTC 28.4N 115.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/3101952ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 142.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 142.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.7N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.5N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.4N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.6N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.7N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 26.5N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 142.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 312100 *** WARNING 312100. WARNING VALID 012100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0514 NABI (0514) 935 HPA AT 17.0N 142.1E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 18.6N 138.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 312100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514) ANALYSIS PSTN 312100UTC 17.0N 142.1E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 120NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 012100UTC 18.6N 138.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 021800UTC 20.3N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 031800UTC 23.4N 132.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 312200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 312200 UTC 00HR 24.0N 121.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 210KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 312245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 312100 UTC, TYPHOON TALIM (0513) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 312300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 312300 UTC 00HR 24.0N 121.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 210KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 35.9N 141.0E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR ENE 25KM/H P+24HR 38.0N 146.8E 995HPA 20M/S=