** WTUS84 KBMX 290619 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017-022>025-030>035-039>044-290800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 119 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA TO BRING HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND THREAT OF TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8AM MONDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 1 PM MONDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY...AND 410 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN EXPECTED MOVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 225 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED THEIR NECESSARY PREPARATION PLANS. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA STARTING TOMORROW MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR HIGHEST STRENGTH BETWEEN 6 PM MONDAY AND 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK...AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH...AND GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 65...WHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 CAN EXPECT WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS...IN COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOILS...CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS RAIN BANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY... THEY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXTEND WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE DEPARTMENT'S WEB SITE...AT HTTP://WWW.DOT.STATE.AL.US/. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...OR DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA...CALL OUR STORM REPORTING HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM CDT. && $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 290626 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 125 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND MOBILE... BALDWIN...CHOCTAW AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND STONE...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...CONECUH...MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. A TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 115 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 908 MB...26.81 INCHES. KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR OR MINIMUM CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. TIDE LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD SEVERALLY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY MID MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MONDAY MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SINCE LAST EVENING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...OR THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT PUSHES INLAND. ...NEW INFORMATION... RADAR FIX ON THE EYE INDICATES KATRINA IS NOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH. ONE OR TWO HOURLY SHORT TERM FORECASTS (BHMNOWMOB) WILL BE ISSUED TO DESCRIBING MORE DETAILED STORM RELATED INFORMATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 300 AM CDT. $$ PURDY ** WTIN20 DEMS 290600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 29-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT 27.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP22 RJTD 290600 *** WARNING 290600. WARNING VALID 300600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 955 HPA AT 21.0N 132.9E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 95 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 22.5N 127.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 24.1N 123.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 25.8N 120.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 21.0N 132.9E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 95NM 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 22.5N 127.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 310600UTC 24.1N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 010600UTC 25.8N 120.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 20.9N 133.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 22.8N 128.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 24.6N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 26.0N 120.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTNT32 KNHC 290656 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS EITHER A CATEGORY FOUR OR POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 83 MPH WAS REPORTED FROM A UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BUOY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...A GUST TO 75 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEW ORLEANS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 40 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF KATRINA IS INCREASING AND SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 910 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 290702 *** HLSLCH LAZ029-033-044-045-051>055-290930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 201 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON...VERMILION... IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY...AVOYELLES...AND SAINT LANDRY PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SAINT MARY PARISH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION AND IBERIA PARISH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING CAMERON PARISH. . AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR AVOYELLES...SAINT LANDRY...SAINT MARTIN AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 168 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH...EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 98 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 908 MB...26.81 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KATRINA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS...UPDATED ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 MPH BY 3 AM WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN RAIN SQUALLS...THEN 45 TO 65 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE AND AMELIA AREA MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO HENDERSON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS FAR WEST AS CAMERON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 25 TO 35 KNOTS AROUND 2 AM THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MID-MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 4:30 AM. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 14.9N 153.4E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 15.4N 150.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTCA42 TJSJ 290717 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT LUNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA COMENZANDO A MOVERSE HACIA EL NORTE HACIA EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ...VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN OCURRIENDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM...0700Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.6 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 130 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO TARDE ESTA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES SE ESTAN DETERIORANDO GRADUALMENTE A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA CENTRAL Y NORESTE DEL GOLFO...Y CONTINUARAN EMPEORANDO DURANTE EL DIA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 155 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO O POSIBLEMENTE CATEGORIA CINCO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS MAS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL SUELO. KATRINA PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN MUY GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA UNA RAFAGA DE 83 MPH FUE REPORTADA POR UNA BOYA DE LA UNIVERSIDAD DEL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL ESTE DE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...UNA RAFAGA DE 75 MPH FUE REPORTADA EN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...Y UNA RAFAGA DE 60 MPH FUE REPORTADA EN NEW ORLEANS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 910 MILIBARAS...26.87 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. ALGUNAS AREAS EN LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS PODRIAN SER INUNDADAS. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA PODRIAN OCURRIR EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DEL CENTRO Y EL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42040 LOCALIZADA COMO A 50 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO OLAS CON ALTURA DE AL MENOS 40 PIES. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EN EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. LA AMENAZA DE TORNADOS DELANTE DE KATRINA ESTA AUMENTANDO Y SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...EL SUR DE ALABAMA...Y SOBRE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM CDT...28.2 NORTE...89.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...155 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 910 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 290719 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017-022>025-030>035-039>044-291000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 218 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA TO BRING HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINS... AND THREAT OF TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 1 PM MONDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ABOUT 341 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY...AND 406 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN EXPECTED MOVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED THEIR NECESSARY PREPARATION PLANS. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA STARTING THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF KATRINA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SUMTER...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA... FAYETTE...LAMAR...AND MARION. IF THE POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY DUE TO THE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS PRODUCED. GENERATORS SHOULD NOT BE USED INDOORS...BUT IF NO ALTERNATIVE EXISTS...USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS...OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. BRING YOUR PETS INDOORS. FLOODING... ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR HIGHEST STRENGTH BETWEEN 6 PM MONDAY AND 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK...AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 65...WHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 CAN EXPECT WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS...IN COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOILS...CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS RAIN BANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY... THEY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXTEND WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE DEPARTMENT'S WEB SITE...AT HTTP://WWW.DOT.STATE.AL.US/. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...OR DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA...CALL OUR STORM REPORTING HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM CDT. && $$ LINHARES ** WTUS82 KTAE 290725 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-291030- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 306 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL WALTON...BAY...AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. KATRINA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 155 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD NOW BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...HAVING SECURED LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND TAKEN APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING. LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE PROTECTIVE DUNES HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY BY PREVIOUS STORMS. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR CAPE SAN BLAS IN GULF COUNTY...AND ST GEORGE AND DOG ISLANDS...ALLIGATOR POINT...AND ALL LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO COASTAL FLOODING IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM THE LARGE AND POWERFUL KATRINA. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF AROUND 10 FEET. THIS HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY...ALLOWING SOME WATER TO WASH UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE HOUSES. HIGH SURF AT GULF COUNTY HAS WASHED ROCKS OVER SOME OF THE ROADS AT CAPE SAN BLAS. REPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH SWELLS...WITH 18 FEET SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEING REPORTED AT THE BUOY 90 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER SURF ALONG THE COAST. THIS WAVE ACTION... COUPLED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE TIDES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY ARE CLOSED. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...1037 AM MONDAY MORNING SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 AM CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 2 AM CDT WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WERE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THE WIND AT THE PANAMA CITY GULF BUOY WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 GUSTING TO 43 KNOTS. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. ON THIS TRACK MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MISS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN BANDS SET UP OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY AROUND 530 AM CDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTUS84 KJAN 290730 CCA *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-291100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 230 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION...LAMAR... FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON... JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...RANKIN... HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...LEAKE...NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS... FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES... WEBSTER...AND CLAY COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS... MARION...COVINGTON...FORREST...JONES...AND LAMAR COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AT THE CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE LEVEL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO A SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATION TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! HURRICANE KATRINA IS NEARLY THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY! PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 TO 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT ALTHOUGH THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS LESS THAN 6 HOURS AWAY...SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK WOULD BE ALONG THE PEARL RIVER VALLEY AND THEN JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND. AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBUS LINE. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 85 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 27 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 AM CDT. $$ CRAVEN ** WTUS84 KLIX 290739 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-291000- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 240 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...TIDES RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED 160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 12 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS RECOMMENDATIONS. WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SEEK REFUGE OF LAST RESORT IN STRONG...WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. IF LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING DEVELOPS...MOVE TO HIGHER FLOORS OR HOUSE ATTICS. BRING TOOLS TO MAKE AN EMERGENCY EXIT SHOULD THESE HIGHER FLOORS OR ATTICS BECOME INUNDATED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LANDFALL OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING...WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE TIDAL LAKES OF PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS INUNDATING LOW LYING AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. TIDES ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST... THREE TO FIVE FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SEVEN FEET ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AROUND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE INTO NEW ORLEANS AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POWER OUTAGES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE...SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DUE TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT52 KNHC 290748 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA/NWS LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ31 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST -NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.9N 153.4E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS POOR BECAUSE OF OBSCURE CLOUD PA TTERN. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST -NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS84 KMOB 290805 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291045- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 305 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND MOBILE... BALDWIN...CHOCTAW AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND STONE...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...CONECUH...MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. A TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 300 AM CDT...MOBILE RADAR ESTIMATED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA TO BE ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND... AND MOVING NORTH AROUND 14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS A CATEGORY FOUR. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. TIDE LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD SEVERALLY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH WITH GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY MID MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS TODAY. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURRING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...OR THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT PUSHES INLAND. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 530 AM CDT. $$ PURDY ** WTNT72 KNHC 290830 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT THU SEP 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.6N 89.0W 38 1 X X 39 PORTLAND ME X X X 4 4 36.7N 87.2W 3 20 1 1 25 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3 39.8N 84.1W X 1 14 2 17 EASTPORT ME X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3 PANAMA CITY FL 1 1 X X 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4 PENSACOLA FL 15 1 1 X 17 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 MOBILE AL 49 X X X 49 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 6 6 GULFPORT MS 72 X X X 72 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 4 4 BURAS LA 99 X X X 99 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 4 4 NEW ORLEANS LA 74 X X X 74 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3 NEW IBERIA LA 3 X X X 3 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W 2 1 X X 3 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE C FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED D FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 290830 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0900Z MON AUG 29 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 89.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 89.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 89.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.6N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.6N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 36.7N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 39.8N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 45.5N 76.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 51.0N 68.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 89.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 290836 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005 0900Z MON AUG 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 49.4W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 49.4W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.8N 51.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.7N 55.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.0N 57.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.7N 59.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 290838 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 29 2005 ...DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM... EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 290839 CCA *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-291000- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 240 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...TIDES RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED 160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 12 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS RECOMMENDATIONS. WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SEEK REFUGE OF LAST RESORT IN STRONG...WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. IF LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING DEVELOPS...MOVE TO HIGHER FLOORS OR HOUSE ATTICS. BRING TOOLS TO MAKE AN EMERGENCY EXIT SHOULD THESE HIGHER FLOORS OR ATTICS BECOME INUNDATED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LANDFALL OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING...WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE TIDAL LAKES OF PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS INUNDATING LOW LYING AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. TIDES ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST... THREE TO FIVE FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SEVEN FEET ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AROUND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE INTO NEW ORLEANS AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POWER OUTAGES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE...SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DUE TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 290842 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA ALC003-097-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045- 047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-670-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ FLC033-091-113-GMZ655-675-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC023-113-GMZ455-475-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC045-101-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...TAE...MOB...LIX... ** WTNT32 KNHC 290850 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE THIS MORNING... AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH WITH GUST TO 91 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ...AND A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEW ORLEANS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 46 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.8 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 290852 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST LUNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DESORGANIZADA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN AL NORTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.4 OESTE O COMO A 795 MILLAS...1280 KM... AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...16.8 NORTE... 49.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 290857 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU SEP 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.3N 53.2W 52 X X X 52 22.0N 57.3W X 13 16 1 30 20.7N 55.3W 4 33 X X 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 290909 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 AIR FORCE RECON HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING KATRINA THIS MORNING AND HAS REPORTED SOME MECHANICAL PROBLEMS WHICH HAS PREVENTED MAKING A COMPLETE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 132-134 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHILE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM WFO SLIDELL EXCEEDING 123 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BETWEEN 12000-16000 FT. THESE WIND VALUES WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST 125 KT SURFACE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IS NOW 915 MB...THIS WOULD USUALLY SUPPORT ABOUT 145 KT SURFACE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/13. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ACT TO KEEP KATRINA MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. BY 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTS OUT THE SYSTEM AND TRANSITIONS IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE WATER REMAINS QUITE WARM UNDERNEATH THE CENTER...AND CONVECTION CAN EASILY REDEVELOP AND THE EYEWALL CLOSE OFF AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. SOME DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE EYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARM WATER NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN CONTAINS A RARE 200 MB INDRAFT ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR TAMPA BAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW REGIME AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WARM WATER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. JUST BECAUSE KATRINA IS NO LONGER A CATGEORY 5 HURRICANE DOES NOT MEAN THAT EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR. THIS IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY HURRICANE! FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 28.8N 89.6W 130 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 30.6N 89.6W 110 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/0600Z 33.6N 89.0W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1800Z 36.7N 87.2W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0600Z 39.8N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0600Z 45.5N 76.5W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 02/0600Z 51.0N 68.0W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTUS84 KHUN 290909 *** HLSHUN ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-291500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 405 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA WILL AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT COVERS ALL OF THE NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF THE NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ENSURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS REMAIN SECURE...INCLUDING PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. MAKE PLANS NOW TO MOVE OUTDOOR PETS TO A SAFE INDOOR LOCATION BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH THIS EVENING. AS KATRINA DRAWS CLOSER TONIGHT...THE WINDS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...TO 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE GEORGIA BORDER. THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES IN RAIN BANDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO BE SPECIFIC ON HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED. IT COULD BE THE WHOLE AREA...OR MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF KATRINA...DEPENDING ON HOW THE RAIN BANDS EVOLVE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 290910 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY 41040 SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE MOMENT...THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. HOWEVER... IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CENTER WERE TO BE RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE BUOY INDICATED A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 KT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 25 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORTING A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INDICATING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/12. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AS A SHEARED SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.8N 49.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.8N 51.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.3N 53.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 20.7N 55.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 57.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 23.7N 59.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 290910 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT LUNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN KATRINA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE HACIA EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DESDE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA-FLORIDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN HABERSE COMPLETADO DURANTE LA NOCHE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.6 OESTE O COMO A 90 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA Y COMOM A 120 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY. UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION Y UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE SE ESPERA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA... KATRINA ESTARA SOBRE LA COSTA EN EL SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA JUSTO AL ESTE DE GRAND ISLE ESTA MANANA...LLEGANDO AL AREA DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI ESTA TARDE. LAS CONDICIONES CONTINUARAN DETERIORANDOSE SOBRE EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LOUISIANA ...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...Y EL SUR DE ALABAMA DURANTE EL DIA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 150 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS MAS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS MULTIPISOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL SUELO. KATRINA PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN MUY GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 53 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 91 MPH FUERON INFORMADOS EN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...Y UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 71 MPH FUE INFORMADO EN NEW ORLEANS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 915 MILIBARAS...27.02 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. ALGUNAS AREAS EN LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS PODRIAN SER INUNDADAS. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA PODRIAN OCURRIR EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DEL CENTRO Y EL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42040 LOCALIZADA COMO A 50 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO OLAS CON ALTURA DE AL MENOS 46 PIES. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EN EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. LA AMENAZA DE TORNADOS DELANTE DE KATRINA CONTINUA AUMENTANDO Y SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...EL SUR DE ALABAMA...Y SOBRE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...28.8 NORTE...89.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 915 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 6 AM CDT Y 8 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.7N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.2N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.8N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.7N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.8N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 27.4N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 28.5N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 132.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KBMX 290922 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017-022>025-030>035-039>044-291230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 422 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA TO BRING HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINS... AND THREAT OF TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 1 PM MONDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. THIS IS ABOUT 302 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY...AND 363 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE THIS MORNING... AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY....AND AN EXPECTED MOVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED THEIR NECESSARY PREPARATION PLANS. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA STARTING THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF KATRINA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SUMTER...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA... FAYETTE...LAMAR...AND MARION. IF THE POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY DUE TO THE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS PRODUCED. GENERATORS SHOULD NOT BE USED INDOORS...BUT IF NO ALTERNATIVE EXISTS...USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS...OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. BRING YOUR PETS INDOORS. FLOODING... ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR HIGHEST STRENGTH BETWEEN 6 PM MONDAY AND 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK...AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 65...WHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 CAN EXPECT WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS...IN COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOILS...CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS RAIN BANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY... THEY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXTEND WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE DEPARTMENT'S WEB SITE...AT HTTP://WWW.DOT.STATE.AL.US/. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...OR DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA...CALL OUR STORM REPORTING HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM CDT. && $$ LINHARES ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZAUG2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HABORE HI/290752ZAUG2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// /REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 153.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 153.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.2N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.7N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.4N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.1N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 18.2N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 153.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 290151Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 290200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 290900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.2N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.8N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 290900 RRD *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 27.4N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 28.5N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 132.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 290900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.7N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 RRB *** 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.1N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 18.2N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 290900 RRC *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.7N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.8N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTJP32 RJTD 290900 *** WARNING 290900. WARNING VALID 300900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 955 HPA AT 21.0N 132.4E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 95 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 22.4N 127.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 21.0N 132.4E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 95NM 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 22.4N 127.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 310600UTC 24.1N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 010600UTC 25.8N 120.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTUS84 KLCH 290946 *** HLSLCH LAZ029-051-052-291130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 440 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON...VERMILION... IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY...AVOYELLES...AND SAINT LANDRY PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SAINT MARY PARISH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION...ST MARY AND IBERIA PARISH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING CAMERON PARISH. . AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR AVOYELLES...SAINT LANDRY...SAINT MARTIN AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE THIS MORNING... AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH WITH GUST TO 91 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ...AND A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEW ORLEANS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS...UPDATED ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 25 TO 35 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 45 TO 65 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE AND AMELIA AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO HENDERSON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS FAR WEST AS CAMERON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 25 TO 35 KNOTS AROUND 4 AM THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MID-MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 6:30 AM. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 290949 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-291200- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 445 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...WIND GUSTS OVER 100 MPH AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... ...EXTENSIVE AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS...AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTH AT NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS. WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SEEK REFUGE OF LAST RESORT IN STRONG...WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. IF LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING DEVELOPS...MOVE TO HIGHER FLOORS OR HOUSE ATTICS. BRING TOOLS TO MAKE AN EMERGENCY EXIT SHOULD THESE HIGHER FLOORS OR ATTICS BECOME INUNDATED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING...WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE TIDAL LAKES OF PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS INUNDATING LOW LYING AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. TIDES ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST... FIVE TO SEVEN FEET ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERE STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AROUND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE INTO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POWER OUTAGES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND 400 AM THIS MORNING WIND GUSTS AROUND 102 MPH AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANES CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS...AND CAN CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DUE TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 630 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 290949 CCA *** HLSLCH LAZ029-051-052-291130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 440 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON...VERMILION... IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY...AVOYELLES...AND SAINT LANDRY PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SAINT MARY PARISH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION...ST MARY AND IBERIA PARISH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING CAMERON PARISH. . AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR AVOYELLES...SAINT LANDRY...SAINT MARTIN AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE THIS MORNING...AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH WITH GUST TO 91 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ...AND A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEW ORLEANS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS...UPDATED ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 25 TO 35 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 45 TO 65 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE AND AMELIA AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO HENDERSON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS FAR WEST AS CAMERON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 25 TO 35 KNOTS AROUND 4 AM THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MID-MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 6:30 AM. $$ ** WTPH RPLL 290600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 02 AT 0600 29 AUGUST TYPHOON (TALIDM) (0513) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE TW POINT NINE EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300600 TWO TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO EAST AT 310600 TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 010600 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTUS84 KJAN 290951 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-291100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 450 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST LINE OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MARION...LAMAR... FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON... JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...RANKIN... HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...LEAKE...NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA... LOWNDES... WEBSTER AND CLAY COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ADAMS... FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS... MARION...COVINGTON...FORREST...JONES...AND LAMAR COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TODAY...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! WHILE HURRICANE KATRINA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...IT IS STILL ALMOST AS STRONG AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969. THE HURRICANE IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE THAN CAMILLE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY! PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO A SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATION TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. ...WIND IMPACTS... IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20... WINDS OF 75 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WINDS OF 50 TO 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL LIKELY OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT ALTHOUGH THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS LESS THAN 6 HOURS AWAY...SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM PURVIS...TO RALEIGH...TO NEAR WEST POINT...BUT REMEMBER...THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND. AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBUS LINE. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 93 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 37 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 7 AM CDT. $$ GERARD ** WTNT52 KNHC 290953 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AT 5 AM CDT...1000Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA/NWS LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 35 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. DURING THE PAST HOUR...GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 87 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 114 MPH...A FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM WIND TOWER IN GALLIANO LOUISIANA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 79 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH...AND A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ31 PGUM 291000 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 8 PM GUAM LST MON AUG 29 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W FORMS EAST OF THE MARIANAS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA..TINIAN..SAIPAN..AND AGRIHAN AS OF 8 PM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS..INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE..ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN 485 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 490 MILES EAST OF TINIAN 525 MILES EAST OF ROTA...AND 560 MILES EAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 153.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MCELROY ** WTUS82 KTAE 291009 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-770-FLZ008-012-014-291430- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 527 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANAN... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL WALTON...BAY...AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. KATRINA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD NOW BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...HAVING SECURED LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND TAKEN APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING. LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE PROTECTIVE DUNES HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY BY PREVIOUS STORMS. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR CAPE SAN BLAS IN GULF COUNTY...AND ST GEORGE AND DOG ISLANDS...ALLIGATOR POINT...AND ALL LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO COASTAL FLOODING IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM THE LARGE AND POWERFUL KATRINA. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF AROUND 10 FEET...AND LAW ENFORCEMENT FROM BAY COUNTY ESTIMATED THE SURF AT 8 TO 10 FEET. THIS HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY...ALLOWING SOME WATER TO WASH UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE HOUSES IN WALTON COUNTY. HIGH SURF AT GULF COUNTY HAS WASHED ROCKS OVER SOME OF THE ROADS AT CAPE SAN BLAS. REPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH SWELLS...WITH 17 FEET SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH BEING REPORTED AT THE BUOY 90 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER SURF ALONG THE COAST. THIS WAVE ACTION...COUPLED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE TIDES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY ARE CLOSED. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...1037 AM MONDAY MORNING SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 AM CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WERE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THE WIND AT THE PANAMA CITY GULF BUOY WAS SOUTHEAST AT 37 GUSTING TO 47 KNOTS. EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS NEAR THE COAST. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. THESE WINDS WILL PROBABLY PEAK BY LATE MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS KATRINA ACCELERATES INLAND AND WEAKENS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN BANDS SET UP OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION. ...TORNADO THREAT... SO FAR NO TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY... ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND HEATING OCCURS. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY AROUND 930 AM CDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 14.9N 153.1E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 15.8N 150.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTUS84 KMOB 291011 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 510 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND MOBILE...INLAND BALDWIN...WASHINGTON...CLARKE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND STONE...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...CONECUH...MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. A TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM CDT...MOBILE RADAR ESTIMATED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA TO BE ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY... AND MOVING NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE THIS MORNING...AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. TIDE LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD SEVERALLY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 T0 50 MPH WITH GUST TO NEAR 75 MPH...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS TODAY. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURRING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...OR THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT PUSHES INLAND. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 700 AM CDT. $$ PURDY ** WTNT32 KNHC 291054 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA PREPARING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN GRAND ISLE AND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH NEAR EMPIRE AND BURAS LOUSIANA WITHIN THE ENXT HOUR...AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH WITH A GUST TO 96 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN BELLE CHASSE LOUISIANA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 47 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 8 AM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 291106 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 CORRECTED TIMES TO 6 AM CDT ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA PREPARING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN GRAND ISLE AND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH NEAR EMPIRE AND BURAS LOUSIANA WITHIN THE ENXT HOUR...AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH WITH A GUST TO 96 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN BELLE CHASSE LOUISIANA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 47 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT62 KNHC 291116 *** TCUAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 610 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... AT 610 AM CDT...1110Z...HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA...JUST SOUTH OF BURAS...AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 140 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 291117 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017-022>025-030>035-039>044-291400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 616 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA TO BRING HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINS... AND THREAT OF TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 1 PM MONDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN GRAND ISLE AND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY...AND 350 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED THEIR NECESSARY PREPARATION PLANS. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA STARTING THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF KATRINA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SUMTER...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA... FAYETTE...LAMAR...AND MARION. IF THE POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY DUE TO THE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS PRODUCED. GENERATORS SHOULD NOT BE USED INDOORS...BUT IF NO ALTERNATIVE EXISTS...USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS...OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. BRING YOUR PETS INDOORS. FLOODING... ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR HIGHEST STRENGTH BETWEEN 6 PM TODAY AND 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK...AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 65...WHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 CAN EXPECT WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS...IN COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOILS...CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS RAIN BANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY... THEY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TODAY...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXTEND INTO TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE DEPARTMENT'S WEB SITE...AT HTTP://WWW.DOT.STATE.AL.US/. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...OR DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA...CALL OUR STORM REPORTING HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM CDT. && $$ 61 ** WTPQ81 PGUM 291118 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-154-291700- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 PM GUAM LST MON AUG 29 2005 ...INTENSIFYING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W FORMS EAST OF THE MARIANAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA..TINIAN..SAIPAN..AND AGRIHAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN 485 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 490 MILES EAST OF TINIAN 525 MILES EAST OF ROTA...AND 560 MILES EAST OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY NOON TUESDAY. ...GUAM... DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W THAN FORECAST MAY REQUIRE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING BE ISSUED FOR GUAM ON TUESDAY. ...WIND INFORMATION... WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 6 TO 8 FT ON WEST-FACING EXPOSURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL INUNDATION IS EXPECTED. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...ROTA... PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PLAN AND BE SURE YOUR DISASTER KITS ARE WELL STOCKED. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY THE SAIPAN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 6 TO 8 FT ON WEST-FACING EXPOSURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO ONE FOOT IS POSSIBLE. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...TINIAN AND SAIPAN... PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PLAN AND BE SURE YOUR DISASTER KITS ARE WELL STOCKED. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY THE SAIPAN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 7 TO 9 FT ON WEST-FACING EXPOSURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO ONE FOOT IS POSSIBLE. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...AGRIHAN... PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PLAN AND BE SURE YOUR DISASTER KITS ARE WELL STOCKED. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY THE SAIPAN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND DECREASE TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 6 TO 8 FT ON EAST-FACING EXPOSURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO ONE FOOT IS POSSIBLE. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING OR SOONER IF NEEDED. CLOSELY MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OR RADIO COMMUNICATIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. $$ MCELROY ** WTUS84 KLCH 291119 *** HLSLCH LAZ029-033-044-045-051>055-291330- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 616 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA PREPARING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON...VERMILION... IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY...AVOYELLES...AND SAINT LANDRY PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SAINT MARY PARISH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION...ST MARY AND IBERIA PARISH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING CAMERON PARISH. . AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR AVOYELLES...SAINT LANDRY...SAINT MARTIN AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 8 AM...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH NEAR EMPIRE AND BURAS LOUISIANA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH WITH A GUST TO 96 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN BELLE CHASSE LOUISIANA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR EMPIRE AND BURAS LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS...UPDATED ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 25 TO 35 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 45 TO 65 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE AND AMELIA AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO HENDERSON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS FAR WEST AS CAMERON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 25 TO 35 KNOTS AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MID-MORNING TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 8:30 AM. $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 291123 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-291100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 615 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BURAS LOUISIANA... ...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MARION...LAMAR... FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON... JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...RANKIN... HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...LEAKE...NESHOBA... ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA... LOWNDES... WEBSTER...CLAY AND KEMPER COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ADAMS... FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE...GRENADA...CARROLL... MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS... MARION...COVINGTON...FORREST...JONES...AND LAMAR COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 AM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TODAY...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! WHILE HURRICANE KATRINA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...IT IS STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. A HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY HAS NOT MADE LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SINCE HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WHILE THE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER AS STRONG AS CAMILLE... MEANING THAT THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY NOT BE AS EXTREME...IT MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA SINCE THE HURRICANE IS LARGER IN SIZE. IT IS LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY! PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO A SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATION TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. ...WIND IMPACTS... IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20... WINDS OF 75 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WINDS OF 50 TO 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL LIKELY OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NOW OCCURRING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM PURVIS...TO RALEIGH...TO NEAR WEST POINT...BUT REMEMBER...THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND. AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBUS LINE. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 93 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 37 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 AM CDT. $$ GERARD ** WTCA42 TJSJ 291132 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6 AM CDT LUNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO KATRINA PREPARANDOSE MOVIENDOSE HACIA TIERRA CERCA DEL SUR DE PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA... ...VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN OCURRIENDO SOBRE LA MAYOR PARTE DEL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA...EN EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS...TANTO COMO AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS CHANDELEUR... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN HABERSE COMPLETADO DURANTE LA NOCHE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 6 AM CDT...1100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MAYOR KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.6 OESTE O COMO ENTRE GRAND ISLE Y LA DESDEMBOCAURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. TAMBIEN ESTA COMO A 70 MILLAS DEL SURE SURESTE DE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA Y COMO A 95 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY. UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION Y UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE SE ESPERA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA... KATRINA ESTARA SOBRE LA COSTA EN EL SUR DE LA COSTA DE PLAQUEMINES PARISH CERCA DE EMPIRE Y BURAS LOUISIANA DENTRO DE LA PROXIMA HORA...Y ALCANZARA LA FRONTERA DE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA. LAS CONDICIONES CONTINUARAN DETERIORANDOSE SOBRE EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LOUISIANA ...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...Y EL SUR DE ALABAMA DURANTE EL DIA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS MAS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS MULTIPISOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL SUELO. KATRINA PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN MUY GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 120 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. EN LA HORA PASADA...LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 56 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 85 MPH FUERON INFORMADOS EN EL AEROPUERTO DE NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT...Y VIENTO MAXIMO SOSTENIDO DE 74 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 96 MPH FUE INFORMADO EN LA ESTACION AEREA NAVAL EN BELLE CHASSE LOUISIANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 918 MILIBARAS...27.11 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. ALGUNAS AREAS EN LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS PODRIAN SER INUNDADAS. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA PODRIAN OCURRIR EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DEL CENTRO Y EL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42040 LOCALIZADA COMO A 50 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO OLAS CON ALTURA DE AL MENOS 47 PIES. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EN EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. LA AMENAZA DE TORNADOS DISPERSOS SERAN POSIBLES EN EL DIA DE HOY AL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...EL SUR DE ALABAMA...Y SOBRE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 AM CDT...29.1 NORTE...89.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 918 MB. ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 291138 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-291400- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 630 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PREPARING TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THEN HEADING TOWARD COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...EXTENSIVE AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS LOCATION WAS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SEEK REFUGE OF LAST RESORT IN STRONG...WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. IF LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING DEVELOPS...MOVE TO HIGHER FLOORS OR HOUSE ATTICS. BRING TOOLS TO MAKE AN EMERGENCY EXIT SHOULD THESE HIGHER FLOORS OR ATTICS BECOME INUNDATED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LOW LYING AREAS SURROUNDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WITH SEVERE INUNDATION LIKELY. TIDES ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SEVERE STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND ALONG THE SHORE LINE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AROUND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SPREADING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. POWER OUTAGES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUST OF 96 MPH WAS RECORDED AT BELLE CHASE NAVAL AIR STATION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANES CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS...AND CAN CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DUE TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 291147 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-FLZ008-012-014-291530- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 742 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANAN... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL WALTON...BAY...AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 200 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. KATRINA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD NOW BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...HAVING SECURED LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND TAKEN APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING. LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE PROTECTIVE DUNES HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY BY PREVIOUS STORMS. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR CAPE SAN BLAS IN GULF COUNTY...AND ST GEORGE AND DOG ISLANDS...ALLIGATOR POINT...AND ALL LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO COASTAL FLOODING IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM THE LARGE AND POWERFUL KATRINA. WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY REPORTED WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF AROUND 10 FEET AND WINDS AT THE HIGHWAY 331 BRIDGE AT 21 MPH...AND LAW ENFORCEMENT FROM BAY COUNTY ESTIMATED THE SURF AT 8 TO 10 FEET AND THE TIDE AT 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY...ALLOWING SOME WATER TO WASH UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE HOUSES IN WALTON COUNTY. HIGH SURF AT GULF COUNTY HAS WASHED ROCKS OVER SOME OF THE ROADS AT CAPE SAN BLAS. REPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH SWELLS...WITH 17 FEET SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH BEING REPORTED AT THE BUOY 90 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER SURF ALONG THE COAST. THIS WAVE ACTION...COUPLED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE TIDES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY ARE CLOSED. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 6 AM CDT WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WERE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THE WIND AT APALACHICOLA WERE 24 KTS GUSTING TO 31 KTS...AT PANAMA CITY 15 KTS GUSTING TO 23 KTS. THE PANAMA CITY BUOY WAS SOUTHEAST AT 33 GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WAS MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS NEAR THE COAST. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. THESE WINDS WILL PROBABLY PEAK BY LATE MORNING... THEN SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS KATRINA ACCELERATES INLAND AND WEAKENS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN BANDS SET UP OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION. ...TORNADO THREAT... SO FAR NO TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY... ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND HEATING OCCURS. ...RIP CURRENTS... ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 1030 AM CDT. 24-BLOCK $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.7N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.2N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.8N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.7N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.8N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 27.4N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 28.5N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 132.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZAUG2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HABORE HI/290752ZAUG2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// /REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 153.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 153.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.2N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.7N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.4N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 RRC *** 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 153.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 290151Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 290200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZAUG2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HABORE HI/290752ZAUG2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// /REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 153.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 153.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.2N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.7N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.4N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.1N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 18.2N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 153.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 290151Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 290200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT52 KNHC 291158 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 113 MPH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT THEIR OFFICE. FORECASTER PASCH $$