** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 290003 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA AHORA MOVIENDOSE NORTE-NOROESTE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.1 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE EL HURACAN ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO TEMPRANO EL LUNES. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES HAN COMENZADO A DETERIORARSE A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE Y CENTRAL DEL GOLFO...Y CONTINUARAN EMPEORANDO DURANTE LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 160 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA TOQUE TIERRA COMO CATEGORIA CUATRO O CINCO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL NIVEL EN TIERRA. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. VIENTOS CON FUERZAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA NOAA REPORTO LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 904 MILIBARAS...26.69 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA OCURRIRAN EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL Y NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SERAN POSIBLES COMENZANDO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...27.2 NORTE...89.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL... NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...160 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 904 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 290003 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 24 A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA AHORA MOVIENDOSE NORTE-NOROESTE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.1 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE EL HURACAN ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO TEMPRANO EL LUNES. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES HAN COMENZADO A DETERIORARSE A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE Y CENTRAL DEL GOLFO...Y CONTINUARAN EMPEORANDO DURANTE LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 160 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA TOQUE TIERRA COMO CATEGORIA CUATRO O CINCO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL NIVEL EN TIERRA. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. VIENTOS CON FUERZAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA NOAA REPORTO LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 904 MILIBARAS...26.69 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA OCURRIRAN EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL Y NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SERAN POSIBLES COMENZANDO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...27.2 NORTE...89.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL... NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...160 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 904 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 290026 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>054-290300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 715 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN... SAINT MARY AND VERMILION PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 7 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH...EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 904 MB...26.69 INCHES. UNOFFICIALLY... KATRINA IS NOW THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE (BASED ON LOWEST PRESSURE) IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS...UPDATED ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OUTER BANDS OF KATRINA ARE AFFECTING THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN 45 TO 65 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE AND AMELIA AREA MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO HENDERSON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS FAR WEST AS CAMERON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 KNOTS... BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MID-MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 11 PM. $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 290039 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-290300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 740 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION...LAMAR... FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON... JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...RANKIN... HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...LEAKE...NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS... FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES... WEBSTER...AND CLAY COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS... LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...MARION...COVINGTON...FORREST...JONES...AND LAMAR COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AT THE CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE LEVEL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY! PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS AWAY...SO SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND. AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBUS LINE. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 86 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 42 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 PM CDT. $$ GERARD/EDMONSTON ** WTJP22 RJTD 290000 *** WARNING 290000. WARNING VALID 300000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 965 HPA AT 20.9N 134.1E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 22.6N 129.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 24.3N 125.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 25.9N 123.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 20.9N 134.1E FAIR MOVE W 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 22.6N 129.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 310000UTC 24.3N 125.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 010000UTC 25.9N 123.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTUS84 KJAN 290055 CCA *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-290300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION...LAMAR... FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON... JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...RANKIN... HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...LEAKE...NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS... FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES... WEBSTER...AND CLAY COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS... LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...MARION...COVINGTON...FORREST...JONES...AND LAMAR COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AT THE CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE LEVEL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY! PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS AWAY...SO SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND. AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBUS LINE. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 86 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 42 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM CDT. $$ GERARD/EDMONSTON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 20.6N 134.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.1N 130.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 24.0N 125.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.5N 121.5E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTUS84 KLIX 290100 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290400- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 800 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... ...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...SQUALLS SPREADING OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THIS EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 200 AM MONDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED 160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEAVE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IF POSSIBLE BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSEN. MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. SOME PARISHES AND COUNTIES HAVE OPENED SHELTER OF LAST RESORT. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND LOCATIONS OF SHELTER OF LAST RESORT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LANDFALL OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INLAND. KATRINA HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AROUND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER AREA BY 400 AM CDT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 290117 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-770-FLZ008-012-014-290430- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 908 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL WALTON...BAY...AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. KATRINA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. KATRINA IS ALSO A LARGE STORM WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD NOW BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...HAVING SECURED LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS ON BAYS AND INLETS WILL BE EVEN MORE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO EXPECTED SURGE FLOODING. OTHER AREAS MAY BE GIVEN EVACUATION ORDERS. BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF ORDERED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF AROUND 10 FEET. THIS HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY...ALLOWING SOME WATER TO WASH UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE HOUSES. REPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING SWELLS...WITH 18 FEET SWELLS BEING REPORTED AT THE BUOY 90 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. THIS INCREASING SWELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER SURF ALONG THE COAST. THIS WAVE ACTION...COUPLED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE TIDES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY WERE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...1037 AM MONDAY MORNING SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 PM CDT WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WERE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN SOME SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE WINDS AT THE PANAMA CITY GULF BUOY WAS SOUTHEAST AT 27 GUSTING TO 38 MPH. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MISS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...BUT SOME SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY AROUND 1130 PM CDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTKO20 RKSL 290000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0513 TALIM ANALYSIS POSITION 290000UTC 20.8N 134.1E MOVEMENT W 14KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 300000UTC 22.7N 129.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 310000UTC 24.5N 125.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 010000UTC 26.3N 122.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 14.6N 154.0E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 14.7N 151.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUAL LY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.6N 154.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS POOR BECAUSE OF OBSCURE CLOUD PA TTERN. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.6N 154.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS POOR BECAUSE OF OBSCURE CLOUD PA TTERN. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 134.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 134.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.5N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.1N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.7N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 23.6N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 25.9N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 28.0N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 29.3N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 290200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 134.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 134.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.5N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 290200 RRB *** 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.1N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.7N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 290200 RRC *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 23.6N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 25.9N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 290200 RRD *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 28.0N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 29.3N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 290200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 134.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 134.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.5N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.1N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.7N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 23.6N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 25.9N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 28.0N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 29.3N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 290200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/290151ZAUG2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 155.4E TO 13.6N 150.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM- BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 154.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF GUAM. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSOL- IDATING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SURFACE INFLOW IS IMPROVING ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRON- MENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300200Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 290200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/290151ZAUG2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 155.4E TO 13.6N 150.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM- BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 154.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF GUAM. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSOL- IDATING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SURFACE INFLOW IS IMPROVING ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRON- MENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300200Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 290239 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005 0300Z MON AUG 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.9N 48.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.2N 52.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.4N 54.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 290241 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE BY MID PERIOD...GRADUALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO 61 KT IN 120 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE GFDL...INDICATING SLOW STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/10. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS NEAR 54W JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY SHEARS FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MODELS...THE GFDL...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLING FOR A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN 72 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 15.9N 47.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 16.9N 48.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 18.1N 50.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.2N 52.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.4N 54.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 58.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 25.5N 62.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 290243 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 943 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...KATRINA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 160 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS... ...RECORD STORM SURGE REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST... POSSIBLY WORSE THAN HURRICANE FREDERIC OF 1979... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND MOBILE... BALDWIN...CHOCTAW AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND STONE...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA... COVINGTON...CONECUH...MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TORNADO THREAT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING HURRICANE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH...SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE...AND CONTINUES TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE STRENGTH OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE EARLY MONDAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH HIGH...POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING...STORM TIDES ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH LESSER BUT STILL DANGEROUS SURGE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR OR MINIMUM CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY. TIDE LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD SEVERALLY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVEL EVER EXPERIENCED IN MOBILE. FOR COMPARISON...THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA WERE NEAR 9 FEET WITH HURRICANES FREDERIC AND GEORGES. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY MID MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MONDAY MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SINCE LAST EVENING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...OR THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT PUSHES INLAND. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... KATRINA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER RECORDED IN THE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO BASINS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE BY 130 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING. $$ DARBE ** WTNT42 KNHC 290249 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT NEAR 00Z REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 155 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO 140 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...904 MB AT LAST REPORT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...OR SFMR...SUGGESTED WINDS WERE IN THE 120-130 KT RANGE...AND LIMITED DROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGESTED SOMETHING A LITTLE BELOW 140 KT. THERE ARE ENOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SFMR AT THESE SPEEDS FOR ME TO STICK WITH THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT FOR NOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING. THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS RELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT EVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT EXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/9. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING JUST A BIT EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE THERE IS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...TRACK ANOMOLIES OF 30-50 MILES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN 12-18 HOURS OUT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 27.6N 89.4W 140 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 29.2N 89.7W 135 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 31.8N 89.5W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1200Z 34.8N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0000Z 37.7N 85.9W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.5N 78.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0000Z 50.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 290249 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0300Z MON AUG 29 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 89.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 904 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 89.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 89.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.2N 89.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.8N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.8N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 37.7N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 50.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 89.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 290250 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE CENTER OF KATRINA VERY SHORTLY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.6 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 290250 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.8N 89.5W 43 2 X X 45 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 34.8N 88.1W 3 30 1 X 34 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 37.7N 85.9W X 3 20 1 24 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL 1 1 X X 2 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL 18 3 1 X 22 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL 40 X X X 40 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS 54 X X X 54 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 BURAS LA 77 X X X 77 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5 NEW ORLEANS LA 59 X X X 59 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 NEW IBERIA LA 28 1 X X 29 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 87W 8 2 X X 10 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W 99 X X X 99 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W 47 X X X 47 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE C FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE D FROM 7PM TUE TO 7PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 290255 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA ALC003-097-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045- 047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-670-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ FLC033-091-113-GMZ655-675-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC023-113-GMZ455-475-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC045-101-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...TAE...MOB...LIX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 290306 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA CONTINUA ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.4 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 170 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE NUEVA ORLEANS LOUISIANA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE EL HURACAN ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO TEMPRANO EL LUNES. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES HAN COMENZADO A DETERIORARSE A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE Y CENTRAL DEL GOLFO...Y CONTINUARAN EMPEORANDO DURANTE LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 160 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA TOQUE TIERRA COMO CATEGORIA CUATRO O CINCO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL NIVEL EN TIERRA. KATRINA PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. UNA RAFAGA DE 90 MPH FUE RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA EN EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 904 MILIBARAS...26.70 PULGADAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTARA LLEGANDO AL CENTRO DE KATRINA MUY PRONTO. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA OCURRIRAN EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL Y NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SERAN POSIBLES COMENZANDO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...27.6 NORTE...89.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL... NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...160 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 904 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 12 AM CDT Y 2 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 290334 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290800- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... ...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SPREADING INLAND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 200 AM MONDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED 160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS RECOMMENDATIONS. WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SEEK REFUGE OF LAST RESORT IN STRONG REINFORCED BUILDINGS. IF LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING DEVELOPS...MOVE TO HIGHER FLOORS OR HOUSE ATTICS. BRING TOOLS TO MAKE AN EMERGENCY EXIT SHOULD THESE HIGHER FLOORS OR ATTICS BECOME INUNDATED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LANDFALL OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SECONDARY ROADS ALONG THE COAST AND OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION AREA WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AROUND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER AREA BY 400 AM CDT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE...SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KHUN 290337 *** HLSHUN ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-290900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1037 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA WILL AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED...THIS STATEMENT COVERS ALL OF THE NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY EVENING UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ENSURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS REMAIN SECURE...INCLUDING PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. MAKE PLANS NOW TO MOVE OUTDOOR PETS TO A SAFE INDOOR LOCATION BY MONDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING BY MONDAY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY...CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS... STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY BY MONDAY EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST INTO TUESDAY...UNTIL KATRINA MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 4 AM CDT. $$ BC/SS ** WTUS84 KBMX 290337 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017-022>025-030>035-039>044-290930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1037 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA TO BRING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY... ...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 1 PM MONDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8AM MONDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 1 PM MONDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED THEIR NECESSARY PREPARATION PLANS. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA STARTING TOMORROW MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH THOSE AREAS ALONG THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE LIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED AT 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...FROM LINDEN AND DEMOPOLIS NORTHWARD TO FAYETTE AND HAMILTON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD TO AREAS IN AND NEAR INTERSTATE 65...WHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 CAN EXPECT WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS...IN COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOILS...CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A LANDFALLING HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 24 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS RAIN BANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THEY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXTEND WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 160 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...OR DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA...CALL OUR STORM REPORTING HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 AM CDT. && $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 290300 *** WARNING 290300. WARNING VALID 300300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 960 HPA AT 21.1N 133.5E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 22.7N 128.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 21.1N 133.5E FAIR MOVE W 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 22.7N 128.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 310000UTC 24.3N 125.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 010000UTC 25.9N 123.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH RPLL 290000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 01 AT 0000 29 AUGUST, TYPHOON (TALIM)(0513) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.8N 134.2E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 07MPS ROUGH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 450KMS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 0972 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 35MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 250KMS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 22.8N 128.9E AT 310000 24.6N 124.5E AND AT 010000 26.5N 120.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT52 KNHC 290351 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AT 11 PM CDT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA/NWS LANDBASED RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 290355 CCA *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-290300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1050 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION...LAMAR... FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON... JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...RANKIN... HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...LEAKE...NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS... FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES... WEBSTER...AND CLAY COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS... LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...MARION...COVINGTON...FORREST...JONES...AND LAMAR COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AT THE CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE LEVEL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO A SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATION TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT LIGHTLY! PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT ALTHOUGH THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS LESS THAN 12 HOURS AWAY...SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND. AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBUS LINE. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 85 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 27 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 AM CDT. $$ GERARD/EDMONSTON ** WTPH20 RPMM 290000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 01 AT 0000 29 AUGUST, TYPHOON (TALIM)(0513) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE ANF SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ZERO NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCHALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILO- METERS CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE EAST AT 310000 TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 010000 TWO SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 290000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 01 AT 0000 29 AUGUST, TYPHOON (TALIM)(0513) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE ANF SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ZERO NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCHALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILO- METERS CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE EAST AT 310000 TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 010000 TWO SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 15.2N 153.5E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 15.0N 151.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTUS82 KTAE 290418 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-770-FLZ008-012-014-290730- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1207 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL WALTON...BAY...AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. KATRINA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. KATRINA IS ALSO A LARGE STORM WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD NOW BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...HAVING SECURED LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND TAKEN APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING. LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE PROTECTIVE DUNES HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY BY PREVIOUS STORMS. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR CAPE SAN BLAS IN GULF COUNTY...AND ST GEORGE AND DOG ISLANDS...ALLIGATOR POINT...AND ALL LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO COASTAL FLOODING IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. OTHER AREAS MAY BE GIVEN EVACUATION ORDERS. BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF ORDERED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF AROUND 10 FEET. THIS HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY...ALLOWING SOME WATER TO WASH UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE HOUSES. HIGH SURF AT GULF COUNTY HAS WASHED ROCKS OVER SOME OF THE ROADS AT CAPE SAN BLAS. REPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH SWELLS...WITH 13 FEET SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEING REPORTED AT THE BUOY 90 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER SURF ALONG THE COAST. THIS WAVE ACTION...COUPLED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE TIDES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY ARE CLOSED. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...1037 AM MONDAY MORNING SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 AM CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 PM CDT WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WERE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST NEAR 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN SOME SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT THE COAST. THE WIND AT THE PANAMA CITY GULF BUOY WAS SOUTHEAST AT 33 GUSTING TO 43 KNOTS. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MISS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...BUT SOME SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY AROUND 230 AM CDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTUS84 KLCH 290438 *** HLSLCH LAZ029-033-044-045-051>055-290700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN... SAINT MARY...AVOYELLES...SAINT LANDRY AND VERMILION PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SAINT MARY PARISH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION AND IBERIA PARISH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING CAMERON PARISH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR AVOYELLES...SAINT LANDRY...SAINT MARTIN AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 10 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH...EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST TO 90 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN 45 TO 65 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE AND AMELIA AREA MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO HENDERSON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS FAR WEST AS CAMERON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 KNOTS... SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MID-MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 2 AM. $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 290455 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL MIDNIGHT CDT MON AUG 29 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 98 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 908 MB...26.81 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KATRINA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...27.9 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 908 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 290501 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 925 MILES...1490 KM... EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N... 47.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 290502 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED AUG 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.1N 50.7W 50 X X X 50 TAPA 171N 618W X X X 3 3 19.2N 52.8W 10 23 X X 33 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 2 2 20.4N 54.8W X 14 11 1 26 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 3 3 TFFR 163N 615W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 290523 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL MEDIANOCHE CDT LUNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA CONTINUA ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ...VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA MEDIANOCHE CDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.5 OESTE O COMO A 90 MILLAS AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 150 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE NUEVA ORLEANS LOUISIANA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE EL HURACAN ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES HAN COMENZADO A DETERIORARSE A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE Y CENTRAL DEL GOLFO...Y CONTINUARAN EMPEORANDO DURANTE LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 160 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA...Y SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO CATEGORIA CUATRO O CINCO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL SUELO. KATRINA PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN MUY GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. UNA RAFAGA DE 90 MPH FUE RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA EN EL SUROESTE DE PASS LOUISIANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 908 MILIBARAS...26.81 PULGADAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA ACTUALMENTE INVESTIGANDO A KATRINA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. ALGUNAS AREAS EN LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS PODRIAN SER INUNDADAS. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA OCURRIRAN EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL Y NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EN EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES COMENZANDO ESTA NOCHE SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...Y EL SUR DE ALABAMA...Y SOBRE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA MEDIANOCHE CDT...27.9 NORTE...89.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL... NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...160 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 908 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 290527 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN AL NORTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.4 OESTE O COMO A 925 MILLAS...1490 KM... AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...15.9 NORTE... 47.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 290529 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.08.2005 HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 89.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.2N 89.3W INTENSE 12UTC 29.08.2005 29.4N 89.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 32.3N 88.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 35.7N 87.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INLAND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 46.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2005 15.4N 46.8W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2005 17.0N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2005 18.1N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2005 20.2N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 22.0N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2005 24.4N 55.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 26.2N 55.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2005 27.9N 55.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 9.2N 31.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2005 9.2N 31.0W WEAK 00UTC 30.08.2005 10.3N 31.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 13.5N 33.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 16.2N 35.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 18.1N 38.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 20.4N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2005 21.2N 41.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2005 22.2N 43.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2005 23.1N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2005 23.7N 44.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2005 24.4N 44.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2005 24.7N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290529 ** WTNT52 KNHC 290551 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA/NWS LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A WIND GUST TO 101 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 290556 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.08.2005 HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 89.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.2N 89.3W INTENSE 12UTC 29.08.2005 29.4N 89.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 32.3N 88.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 35.7N 87.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INLAND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 46.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2005 15.4N 46.8W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2005 17.0N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2005 18.1N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2005 20.2N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 22.0N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2005 24.4N 55.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 26.2N 55.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2005 27.9N 55.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 9.2N 31.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2005 9.2N 31.0W WEAK 00UTC 30.08.2005 10.3N 31.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 13.5N 33.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 16.2N 35.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 18.1N 38.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 20.4N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2005 21.2N 41.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2005 22.2N 43.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2005 23.1N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2005 23.7N 44.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2005 24.4N 44.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2005 24.7N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290556