** WTCA42 TJSJ 281801 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 23A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA AMENAZANDO LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.6 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 175 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 906 MILIBARAS...26.75 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA OCURRIRAN EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL Y NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL VALLE DE TENESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SERAN POSIBLES COMENZANDO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...26.5 NORTE...88.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...175 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 906 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KHUN 281804 *** HLSHUN ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-282200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 104 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED...THIS STATEMENT COVERS ALL THE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY EVENING UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY AFERNOON FOR ALL OF THE NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ENSURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS REMAIN SECURE...INCLUDING PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. MAKE PLANS NOW TO MOVE OUTDOOR PETS TO A SAFE INDOOR LOCATION BY MONDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING BY MONDAY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY...CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. CURRENTS ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS... STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY BY MONDAY EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST INTO TUESDAY...UNTIL KATRINA MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 PM CDT. $$ TROUTMAN ** WTUS84 KJAN 281812 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-282200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 105 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...MARION...LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LINCOLN...COPIAH... SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...LAUDERDALE...NEWTON...SCOTT... RANKIN...HINDS...MADISON...LEAKE...NESHOBA...AND KEMPER COUNTIES. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE GRENADA...GOLDEN TRIANGLE...YAZOO CITY...VICKSBURG...AND NATCHEZ AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... KATRINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH KATRINA WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 COORIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! HURRRICANE KATRINA IS NOW OF THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL ABOUT 18 HOURS AWAY...SO SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK WOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 68 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 18 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 4 PM CDT. $$ GERARD/EDMONSTON ** WTUS82 KTAE 281825 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-282200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 210 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...EXTREMELY LARGE AND CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST MAINTAINING HER STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE KATRINA WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 175 MPH. THIS MAKES KATRINA A VERY DANGEROUS AND DESTRUCTIVE CATEGORY FIVE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE INTENSITY SCALE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 906 MILLIBARS. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGES OF MAJOR HURRICANES...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE KATRINA REACHES THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTLINE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KATRINA CONTINUES TO EXPAND HER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD TO 205 MILES. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT KATRINA MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN EXPECTED COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...PATIO FURNITURE OR OTHER ITEMS THAT COULD EASILY BE PICKED UP BY GUSTY WINDS. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS ON BAYS AND INLETS WILL BE EVEN MORE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO EXPECTED SURGE FLOODING. OTHER AREAS MAY BE GIVEN EVACUATION ORDERS. BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF ORDERED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA. LAW ENFORCEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED WAVES UP TO 10 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE...WHICH HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY. THE SURF WILL ONLY GROW LARGER AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY WERE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...924 AM EDT SUNDAY AND 1037 AM MONDAY. SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 600 PM EDT (500 PM CDT). $$ 38-GODSEY ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 20.5N 135.7E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.2N 130.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 23.6N 125.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.3N 121.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTUS84 KLCH 281845 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-282145- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN... SAINT MARY...VERMILION PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 1 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES. UNOFFICIALLY... KATRINA IS NOW THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE (BASED ON LOWEST PRESSURE) IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS...UPDATED NO TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE IMPACTED AREA AT THIS TIME. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS...UPDATED ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 10 TO 20 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN 30 TO 40 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE...AMELIA AREA MONDAY MORNING...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO SIMMESPORT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THIS REGION ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 KNOTS... BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 430 PM. $$ ESCUDE ** WTJP22 RJTD 281800 *** WARNING 281800. WARNING VALID 291800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 965 HPA AT 20.6N 135.6E NORTHWEST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 22.1N 131.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 23.7N 126.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 25.3N 123.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 281800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 281800UTC 20.6N 135.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 291800UTC 22.1N 131.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 301800UTC 23.7N 126.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 311800UTC 25.3N 123.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS84 KBMX 281853 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-290100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 150 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA POISED TO BRING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8AM CDT MONDAY TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AT LEAST EQUAL TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 902 MB...26.64 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS AND BRING THEM TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH THOSE AREAS ALONG THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER LIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED AT 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...FROM LINDEN AND DEMOPOLIS NORTHWARD TO FAYETTE AND HAMILTON. HOWEVER...IF KATRINA SHIFTS HER TRACK EVEN A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST...THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE COULD REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE GEORGIA STATE LINE...AND THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS SUCH AS THESE CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE PLANS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD WARNINGS LATER BE ISSUED. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE...CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY BECOME TOO DANGEROUS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A LANDFALLING HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM...IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4PM CDT. && $$ KSUMRALL ** WTUS84 KLIX 281903 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-282230- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 200 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED... ...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION AND LEAVE THE WARNING AREA NOW!... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED 160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEAVE HURRICANE WARNING AREA NOW BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSEN. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS FOR THE LANDFALL OF A CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD LEAVE NOW! HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...THEN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...AND WEAKEN CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 135.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 135.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.2N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.7N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 23.3N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.7N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 28.0N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 29.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 135.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 135.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 135.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.2N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.7N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 23.3N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.7N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 28.0N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 29.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 135.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 281900 RRC *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 23.3N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.7N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 281900 RRB *** 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.2N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.7N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 281900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 135.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 135.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 281900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 135.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 135.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.2N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.7N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 23.3N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.7N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 28.0N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 29.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 135.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 281900 RRD *** OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 28.0N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 29.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 135.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTUS84 KMOB 281946 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-282305- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 246 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS... ...RECORD STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG ALABAMA COAST...POSSIBLY WORSE THAN HURRICANE FREDERIC OF 1979... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 230 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES. KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE...AT LEAST EQUAL TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH HIGH...POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING...STORM TIDES ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH LESSER BUT STILL DANGEROUS SURGE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...WITH A SURGE AROUND 20 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF MOBILE BAY...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVEL EVER EXPERIENCED IN MOBILE. FOR COMPARISON...THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA WERE NEAR 9 FEET WITH HURRICANES FREDERIC AND GEORGES. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN OCCURING SINCE LAST EVENING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... KATRINA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE BY 6 PM CDT. $$ MEDLIN ** WTUS84 KBMX 281955 CCA *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017-022>025-030>035-039>044-290100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED ZONES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 150 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA POISED TO BRING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8AM CDT MONDAY TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AT LEAST EQUAL TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 902 MB...26.64 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS AND BRING THEM TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH THOSE AREAS ALONG THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER LIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED AT 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...FROM LINDEN AND DEMOPOLIS NORTHWARD TO FAYETTE AND HAMILTON. HOWEVER...IF KATRINA SHIFTS HER TRACK EVEN A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST...THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE COULD REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE GEORGIA STATE LINE...AND THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS SUCH AS THESE CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE PLANS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD WARNINGS LATER BE ISSUED. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE...CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY BECOME TOO DANGEROUS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A LANDFALLING HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM...IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4PM CDT. && $$ KSUMRALL ** WTNT23 KNHC 282022 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005 2100Z SUN AUG 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 46.8W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 46.8W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 282022 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 DATA FROM A NEW NOAA BUOY...41041...LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAVE HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT A WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND IS LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS AND ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 62 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE. THERE ARE SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A LARGER GYRE AND ANY OF THEM...ESPECIALLY THE ONE FARTHER TO THE NORTH...COULD BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE PLACED ALONG 65 DEGREES WEST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.4N 46.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 48.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 53.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 58.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 61.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 64.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 282022 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2005 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 965 MILES...1555 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.4 N... 46.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 282022 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED AUG 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.0N 50.5W 53 X X X 53 TAPA 171N 618W X X X 3 3 18.0N 53.0W 1 40 X X 41 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 2 2 19.0N 55.0W X 10 21 X 31 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 2 2 TFFR 163N 615W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 282041 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 902 MB...26.64 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N... 89.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 902 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 282042 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 2100Z SUN AUG 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 89.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 902 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 180SE 125SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 89.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 88.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.3N 89.8W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 125SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.6N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.4N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 41.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 48.0N 72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 89.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 282043 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.6N 89.9W 40 1 X X 41 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 2 1 5 33.4N 89.2W 5 27 X X 32 PENSACOLA FL 9 8 1 X 18 36.0N 87.5W X 6 17 1 24 MOBILE AL 25 5 X X 30 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS 36 2 X X 38 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 BURAS LA 52 X X X 52 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA 46 X X 1 47 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA 31 1 X X 32 NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX 3 2 X X 5 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W 7 4 X X 11 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W 72 X X X 72 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W 51 X X X 51 ST MARKS FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 93W 8 1 X X 9 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 X 1 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE C FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE D FROM 1PM TUE TO 1PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 282047 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 KATRINA IS MAINTAINING A CLASSIC PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE AT 1755Z AND 1923Z WAS 902 MB...WHICH IS THE FOURTH LOWEST ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988...THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935...AND HURRICANE ALLEN OF 1980. HAVING SAID THAT...DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TO 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND RATIO IS NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS WE TYPICALLY USE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 145 KT. HURRICANES DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH GREAT INTENSITY FOR VERY LONG. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE MECHANISMS...SUCH AS INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR...TO WEAKEN KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH CATEGORY 4 OR 5 INTENSITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/11. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFDL HURRICANE MODEL'S TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AS HAS THE LATEST NOGAPS RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS... AND TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. AMONG OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS...ONLY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SMALL CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AT THE NOISE LEVEL. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF A HURRICANE AS LARGE AS THIS ONE. DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHICH COUNTIES OR PARISHES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS. ON THE BASIS OF AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EVEN MORE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AT LEAST 150 N MI INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. CONSULT INLAND HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 26.9N 89.0W 145 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 28.3N 89.8W 145 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 30.6N 89.9W 130 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/0600Z 33.4N 89.2W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 30/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1800Z 41.0N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/1800Z 48.0N 72.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 282055 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA ALC003-097-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045- 047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-670-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ FLC033-091-113-GMZ655-675-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC023-113-GMZ455-475-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC045-101-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...TAE...MOB...LIX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 282120 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA AMENAZANDO LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.0 OESTE O COMO A 150 MILLAS AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE EL HURACAN ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO TEMPRANO EL LUNES. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES HAN COMENZADO A DETERIORARSE A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE Y CENTRAL DEL GOLFO...Y CONTINUARAN EMPEORANDO DURANTE LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 165 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA TOQUE TIERRA COMO CATEGORIA CUATRO O CINCO. LOS VIENTOS AFECTANDO LOS PISOS ALTOS DE EDIFICIOS SERAN SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE MAS FUERTES QUE AQUELLOS CERCA DEL NIVEL EN TIERRA. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS. VIENTOS CON FUERZAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA....CERCA DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 48 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 53 MPH. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA NOAA REPORTO LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 902 MILIBARAS...26.64 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTA COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA OCURRIRAN EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL Y NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SERAN POSIBLES COMENZANDO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...26.9 NORTE...89.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...165 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 902 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KHUN 282122 *** HLSHUN ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-290400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED...THIS STATEMENT COVERS ALL OF THE NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY EVENING UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ENSURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS REMAIN SECURE...INCLUDING PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. MAKE PLANS NOW TO MOVE OUTDOOR PETS TO A SAFE INDOOR LOCATION BY MONDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING BY MONDAY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY...CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS... STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY BY MONDAY EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST INTO TUESDAY...UNTIL KATRINA MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM CDT. $$ TROUTMAN/SS/BC ** WTUS82 KTAE 282130 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-FLZ008-012-014-290100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 526 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...EXTREMELY LARGE AND CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE KATRINA BARRELING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NOW AT 165 MPH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE KATRINA WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 165 MPH. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OF HURRICANES OF THIS SIZE ARE NOT UNCOMMON...AND HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS AND DESTRUCTIVE CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE INTENSITY SCALE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN ALL DAY AND IS NOW 902 MILLIBARS. KATRINA CONTINUES TO EXPAND HER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD TO 235 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANAMA CITY BUOY WHICH AT 4 PM CDT RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH WITH A GUST TO 45 MPH. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...PATIO FURNITURE OR OTHER ITEMS THAT COULD EASILY BE PICKED UP BY GUSTY WINDS. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS ON BAYS AND INLETS WILL BE EVEN MORE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO EXPECTED SURGE FLOODING. OTHER AREAS MAY BE GIVEN EVACUATION ORDERS. BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF ORDERED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA. LAW ENFORCEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WAVES...IN THE SURF ZONE. THIS HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY. SOME OF THE WAVES ARE MOVING UP UNDER A FEW HOUSES ON THE BEACHES IN WALTON COUNTY. THE SURF WILL ONLY GROW LARGER AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY WERE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...1037 AM MONDAY MORNING SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 900 PM EDT (800 PM CDT). $$ 38-GODSEY ** WTJP32 RJTD 282100 *** WARNING 282100. WARNING VALID 292100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 965 HPA AT 21.0N 134.9E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 22.5N 130.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 282100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 282100UTC 21.0N 134.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 292100UTC 22.5N 130.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 301800UTC 23.7N 126.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 311800UTC 25.3N 123.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS84 KBMX 282135 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017-022>025-030>035-039>044-290330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 435 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA TO BRING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 8AM CDT MONDAY TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 902 MB...26.64 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS AND BRING THEM TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH THOSE AREAS ALONG THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER LIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED AT 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...FROM LINDEN AND DEMOPOLIS NORTHWARD TO FAYETTE AND HAMILTON. HOWEVER...IF KATRINA SHIFTS HER TRACK EVEN A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST...THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE COULD REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE GEORGIA STATE LINE...AND THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS SUCH AS THESE CAN TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES... CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE PLANS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD WARNINGS LATER BE ISSUED. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE...CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY BECOME TOO DANGEROUS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A LANDFALLING HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM...IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATRINA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE WATER BEGINS RISING TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY. EVACUATIONS FROM LOWLANDS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION BY THIS EVENING. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 165 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4PM CDT. && $$ 81/DE BLOCK ** WTCA43 TJSJ 282137 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORMA EN EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL...SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN AL NORTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRECE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.8 OESTE O COMO A 965 MILLAS...1555 KM... AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...15.4 NORTE... 46.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 282141 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-282200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 430 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION...LAMAR...FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER... CLARKE...RANKIN...HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE... LEAKE...NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS... FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES... WEBSTER...AND CLAY COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH KATRINA WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! HURRICANE KATRINA NOW IS THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL ABOUT 18 HOURS AWAY...SO SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK WOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 86 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 42 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 PM CDT. $$ GERARD/EDMONSTON ** WTUS84 KLCH 282226 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-290100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 522 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND SAINT MARTIN... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN... SAINT MARY AND VERMILION PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 4 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT LEAST AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH...EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 902 MB...26.64 INCHES. UNOFFICIALLY... KATRINA IS NOW THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE (BASED ON LOWEST PRESSURE) IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS...UPDATED THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS...UPDATED ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 10 TO 20 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN 45 TO 65 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORGAN CITY...STEPHENSVILLE AND AMELIA AREA MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN UP TO HENDERSON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS FAR WEST AS CAMERON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLING TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES. ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS... NORTHEAST WINDS WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 KNOTS... BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MID-MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DECREASING BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE BY 8 PM. $$ WILEY ** WTUS84 KLIX 282242 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290100- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 545 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... ...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...SQUALLS SPREADING OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THIS EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES... ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 200 AM MONDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED 160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEAVE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IF POSSIBLE BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSEN. MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. SOME PARISHES AND COUNTIES HAVE OPENED SHELTER OF LAST RESORT. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND LOCATIONS OF SHELTER OF LAST RESORT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LANDFALL OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INLAND. KATRINA HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AROUND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER AREA BY 400 AM CDT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 282330 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 629 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER RECORDED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BASED ON PRESSURE...MEASURING 902 MB... ...KATRINA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 165 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS... ...RECORD STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG ALABAMA COAST...POSSIBLY WORSE THAN HURRICANE FREDERIC OF 1979... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND MOBILE... BALDWIN...CHOCTAW AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND STONE...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA... COVINGTON...CONECUH...MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TORNADO THREAT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING HURRICANE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH...SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 902 MB...26.64 INCHES. KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE...AND CURRENTLY EXCEEDING THE STRENGTH OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE EARLY MONDAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH HIGH...POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING...STORM TIDES ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH LESSER BUT STILL DANGEROUS SURGE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY. TIDE LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD SEVERALLY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVEL EVER EXPERIENCED IN MOBILE. FOR COMPARISON...THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA WERE NEAR 9 FEET WITH HURRICANES FREDERIC AND GEORGES. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY MID MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SINCE LAST EVENING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...OR THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT PUSHES INLAND. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... KATRINA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER RECORDED IN THE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO BASINS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE BY 930 PM CDT. $$ DARBE ** WTNT32 KNHC 282355 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 904 MB...26.69 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...27.2 N... 89.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$