** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT42 KNHC 281204 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS. OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT LANDFALL. WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1200Z 25.7N 87.7W 140 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W 140 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W 140 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W 135 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 281209 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA...AHORA UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO...DIRIGIENDOSE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.7 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE Y NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 160 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS. DATA DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA HA DESCENDIDO HASTA CERCA DE 908 MILIBARAS...26.81 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTOS COMO 25 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. TORNADOS AISLADOS TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES COMENZANDO EL DOMINGO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE SECTORES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM CDT...25.7 NORTE...87.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...160 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...908 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 281213 *** HLSLCH LAZ051>055-281500- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 7 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON... VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THIS NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 7 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALSO, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 908 MB...26.81 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS...UPDATED RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY ACROSS THE WARNING AREAS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THIS EVENING... INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF MORGAN CITY ON MONDAY MORNING, WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN CAMERON AND MORGAN CITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA, WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 AM... $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 281214 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-281700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 710 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... KATRINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING. KATRINA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A HURRICANE WELL INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED MAY WANT TO CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR. ***IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT MOST OF THE DEATHS IN SOUTH FLORIDA FROM KATRINA WERE FROM SIGHT SEERS WANTING TO EXPERIENCE THE THRILL OF A HURRICANE. KATRINA WAS ONLY A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT THAT TIME...AND IS CURRENTLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST HURRICANES EVER TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DO NOT RISK YOUR LIFE BY ATTEMPTING TO RIDE OUT AND WITNESS THIS STORM. MOVE AS FAR INLAND AS POSSIBLE AND SEEK A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SHELTER.*** ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH COULD AFFECT THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ TO VICKSBURG TO EUPORA LINE...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH...POSSIBLE. WITHIN THIS AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 AND HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDORS FROM HATTIESBURG TO LAUREL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL ABOUT 24 HOURS AWAY...SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 65 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 15 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON CDT. $$ CRAVEN ** WTUS84 KJAN 281214 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-281700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 710 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... KATRINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING. KATRINA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A HURRICANE WELL INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED MAY WANT TO CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR. ***IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT MOST OF THE DEATHS IN SOUTH FLORIDA FROM KATRINA WERE FROM SIGHT SEERS WANTING TO EXPERIENCE THE THRILL OF A HURRICANE. KATRINA WAS ONLY A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT THAT TIME...AND IS CURRENTLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST HURRICANES EVER TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DO NOT RISK YOUR LIFE BY ATTEMPTING TO RIDE OUT AND WITNESS THIS STORM. MOVE AS FAR INLAND AS POSSIBLE AND SEEK A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SHELTER.*** ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH COULD AFFECT THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ TO VICKSBURG TO EUPORA LINE...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH...POSSIBLE. WITHIN THIS AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 AND HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDORS FROM HATTIESBURG TO LAUREL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL ABOUT 24 HOURS AWAY...SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 65 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 15 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON CDT. $$ CRAVEN ** WTUS82 KTAE 281235 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-770-FLZ008-012-014-281600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 826 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...INCLUDING COASTAL WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE KATRINA WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH. THIS MAKES KATRINA A CATEGORY FIVE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE INTENSITY SCALE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 908 MILLIBARS. WHILE LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGES OF MAJOR HURRICANES. KATRINA CONTINUES TO EXPAND HER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD TO 185 MILES. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT KATRINA MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN EXPECTED COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...PATIO FURNITURE OR OTHER ITEMS THAT COULD EASILY BE PICKED UP BY GUSTY WINDS. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ORDER AN EVACUATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA. LAW ENFORCEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED WAVES UP TO 10 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE...WHICH HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY. THE SURF WILL ONLY GROW LARGER AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...924 AM EDT SUNDAY AND 1037 AM MONDAY. SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY NOON EDT (1100 AM CDT). $$ 38-GODSEY ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 281200 UTC 00HR 19.8N 136.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 132.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.3N 127.8E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.5N 123.2E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 281200 *** WARNING 281200. WARNING VALID 291200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 970 HPA AT 19.9N 136.8E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 21.7N 132.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 22.8N 128.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 24.1N 124.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 281200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 281200UTC 19.9N 136.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 291200UTC 21.7N 132.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 301200UTC 22.8N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 311200UTC 24.1N 124.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS84 KMOB 281254 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 754 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 5 WITH 160 MPH WINDS... ...RECORD STORM TIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY... ...RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS NEED TO PREPARE TODAY FOR THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 750 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 750 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TODAY FOR A MAJOR LAND-FALLING HURRICANE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH STORM TIDES ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. ANY EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MADE SOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORMS CENTER. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A CATEGORY FOUR LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...INCLUDING BAYOU LA BATRE AND DOWNTOWN MOBILE. A STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY. THESE TIDE HEIGHT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION ALONG PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA. IN COMPARISON...HURRICANE GEORGE IN 1988 BROUGHT WATER LEVELS UP TO 8.3 FEET TO BAYOU LA BATRE...AND 9 FEET TO DOWNTOWN MOBILE. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. TIDAL WATERS WERE REPORTED WASHING OVER SANTA ROSA ISLAND THIS MORNING. A CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...12 TO 14 FEET ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...AND 10 TO 12 FEET ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 160 MPH WINDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 1100 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 281256 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-281600- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 800 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH... ...DIRECT STRIKE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE EXPECTED.... ...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION AND LEAVE AREA AS SOON AS POSSIBLE... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS FOR THE LANDFALL OF A CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. LEAVE NOW IF YOU CAN BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSEN... RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD LEAVE NOW! HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY...THEN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.8N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.4N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.9N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.1N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 25.7N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.9N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 136.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 281500 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.1N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 281500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.8N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 281500 RRB *** 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.4N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.9N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 281500 RRD *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 25.7N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.9N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 136.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.8N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.4N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.9N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.1N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 25.7N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.9N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 136.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 281441 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 1500Z SUN AUG 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.9N 116.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.7N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 115.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 281442 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2005 LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT IRWIN AS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IT IS MAINLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. TAFB AND SAB BOTH FOUND THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION FOR MANY HOURS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON IRWIN...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.9N 115.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.9N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 29/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.7N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 281443 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1500Z SUN AUG 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 88.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 125SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 88.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 88.9W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.1N 89.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.4N 89.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 40.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 45.0N 77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 52.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 281443 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 281443 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.1N 89.6W 40 X X 1 41 PENSACOLA FL 7 13 3 X 23 31.4N 89.5W 12 19 X 1 32 MOBILE AL 15 13 1 X 29 34.5N 88.5W X 5 18 1 24 GULFPORT MS 25 7 X 1 33 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 BURAS LA 38 X X X 38 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 NEW ORLEANS LA 31 3 1 X 35 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 NEW IBERIA LA 16 7 X X 23 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX 1 3 X 1 5 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X 3 2 1 6 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W 14 5 1 X 20 ST MARKS FL X 1 3 2 6 GULF 28N 89W 55 X X X 55 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 4 1 8 GULF 28N 91W 31 X X X 31 PANAMA CITY FL 1 5 6 X 12 GULF 28N 93W 4 3 X X 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON C FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE D FROM 7AM TUE TO 7AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 281454 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A 166 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WHICH REQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 150 KT. A DROP IN THE EYE GAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB. KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN INTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER. GPS DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION EARLIER TODAY SHOWED KATRINA'S INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING THROUGH THE 200 MB LEVEL...WITH THE FLOW SPIRALING ANTICYLONICALLY OUTWARD IN A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BEYOND A COUPLE HUNDRED N MI FROM THE CENTER. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...DUE TO INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES...ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANES RARELY SUSTAIN SUCH EXTREME WINDS FOR MUCH TIME. HOWEVER WE SEE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS TO CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING THE SYSTEM...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE OF CATEGORY 4 OR 5 INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. KATRINA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. RECALLING THAT THE AVERAGE NHC 24-HOUR TRACK FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 N MI...THE ACTUAL LANDFALL POINT COULD STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ALSO...WE MUST CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT ON THE MAP...BECAUSE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS...STORM SURGE...AND DANGEROUS WAVES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE EYE. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHICH COUNTY OR PARISH WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER. THIS ADVISORY SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AT LEAST 150 N MI INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. CONSULT INLAND WARNINGS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 26.0N 88.1W 150 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 27.2N 88.9W 145 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.1N 89.6W 140 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 31.4N 89.5W 85 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1200Z 40.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/1200Z 45.0N 77.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/1200Z 52.0N 69.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 281502 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN KATRINA...MAS FUERTE AUN...DIRIGIENDOSE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.1 OESTE O COMO A 225 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE Y NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 175 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA RECIENTEMENTE MIDIO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 907 MILIBARAS...26.78 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 18 A 22 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTOS COMO 28 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL VALLE DE TENESSEE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL VALLE DE OHIO HACIA LA REGION DEL ESTE DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS EL MARTES Y EL MIERCOLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SERAN POSIBLES COMENZANDO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...26.0 NORTE...88.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...175 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 907 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 281518 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA ALC003-097-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045- 047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-670-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ FLC033-091-113-GMZ655-675-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC023-113-GMZ455-475-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC045-101-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...TAE...MOB...LIX... ** WTUS84 KLIX 281521 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-281900- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 175 MPH... ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE EXPECTED... ...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION AND LEAVE THE AREA NOW!... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED 160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILYS LIVES. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEAVE HURRICANE WARNING AREA NOW BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSEN. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS FOR THE LANDFALL OF A CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD LEAVE NOW! HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 25 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED ON UPPER FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 281526 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-FLZ008-012-014-281900- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1114 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA...NOW EVEN STRONGER...CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...INCLUDING COASTAL WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE KATRINA WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 175 MPH. THIS MAKES KATRINA A VERY DANGEROUS AND DESTRUCTIVE CATEGORY FIVE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE INTENSITY SCALE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 907 MILLIBARS. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGES OF MAJOR HURRICANES...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY BE POSSIBLE. KATRINA CONTINUES TO EXPAND HER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD TO 205 MILES. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT KATRINA MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN EXPECTED COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...PATIO FURNITURE OR OTHER ITEMS THAT COULD EASILY BE PICKED UP BY GUSTY WINDS. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS ON BAYS AND INLETS WILL BE EVEN MORE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ORDER AN EVACUATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA. LAW ENFORCEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED WAVES UP TO 10 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE...WHICH HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY. THE SURF WILL ONLY GROW LARGER AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY WERE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...924 AM EDT SUNDAY AND 1037 AM MONDAY. SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY...618 AM CDT MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...648 CDT MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES...TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVERYONE...INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS...SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT). $$ 38-GODSEY ** WTPN32 PHNC 281600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 115.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 115.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.9N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.8N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.7N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 11 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENE- RATION.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 281500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 281500UTC 20.2N 136.3E POOR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 291500UTC 21.8N 131.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 301200UTC 22.8N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 311200UTC 24.1N 124.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 281500 *** WARNING 281500. WARNING VALID 291500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 970 HPA AT 20.2N 136.3E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 21.8N 131.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS84 KLCH 281548 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-281830- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN... SAINT MARY...VERMILION PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 10 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA REMAINS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 903 MB...26.81 INCHES. UNOFFICIALLY... KATRINA IS NOW THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE (BASED ON LOWEST PRESSURE) IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT IN ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS THE VERMILION BAY REGION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN 30 TO 50 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF MORGAN CITY ON MONDAY MORNING, WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND NEAR THE COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA TO CAMERON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MONDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THIS REGION ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLEN TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLEN TREES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 130 PM. $$ ESCUDE ** WTUS84 KJAN 281605 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-282200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...MARION...LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTIES. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LINCOLN...COPIAH... SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...LAUDERDALE...NEWTON...SCOTT... RANKIN...HINDS...MADISON...LEAKE...NESHOBA...AND KEMPER COUNTIES. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE GRENADA...GOLDEN TRIANGLE...YAZOO CITY...VICKSBURG...AND NATCHEZ AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... KATRINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH KATRINA WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98 COORIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED! HURRRICANE KATRINA IS NOW OF THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES. IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL ABOUT 18 HOURS AWAY...SO SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS. ...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK WOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 68 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 18 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 PM CDT. $$ GERARD/EDMONSTON ** WTUS84 KLCH 281613 CCA *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-281830- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARTIN... SAINT MARY...VERMILION PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 10 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA REMAINS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES. UNOFFICIALLY... KATRINA IS NOW THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE (BASED ON LOWEST PRESSURE) IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A NEARBY LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...EVACUATION ORDERS ARE NOT IN EFFECT IN ANY PORTION OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TIDAL SURGE WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SABINE AND CALCASIEU PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS THE VERMILION BAY REGION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN 30 TO 50 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF MORGAN CITY ON MONDAY MORNING, WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND NEAR THE COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA TO CAMERON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MONDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND THE NUMEROUS TREES FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...RESIDENTS IN THIS REGION ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL OF FALLEN TREES. REMEMBER...MOST OF THE DEATHS CAUSED BY KATRINA AS IT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA WERE CAUSED BY FALLEN TREES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SAINT MARY AND SAINT MARTIN PARISHES...WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REST OF THE VERMILION BAY REGION AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 130 PM. $$ ESCUDE ** WTUS84 KMOB 281648 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-282040- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1148 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS... ...RECORD STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG ALABAMA COAST...POSSIBLY WORSE THAN HURRICANE FREDERIC OF 1979... ...RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS NEED TO PREPARE TODAY FOR THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1030 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AT LEAST EQUAL TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW...AND HAVE THEM COMPLETED DURING THE DAY TODAY. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH HIGH...POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING...STORM TIDES ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH LESSER BUT STILL DANGEROUS SURGE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. SOME EVACUATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CALLED FOR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES...STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORMS CENTER...OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...WITH A SURGE AROUND 20 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF MOBILE BAY...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVEL EVER EXPERIENCED IN MOBILE. FOR COMPARISON...THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA WERE NEAR 9 FEET WITH HURRICANES FREDERIC AND GEORGES. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 3 PM CDT. $$ MCKEE/MEDLIN ** WTUS84 KMOB 281648 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-282040- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1148 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS... ...RECORD STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG ALABAMA COAST...POSSIBLY WORSE THAN HURRICANE FREDERIC OF 1979... ...RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS NEED TO PREPARE TODAY FOR THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1030 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AT LEAST EQUAL TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW...AND HAVE THEM COMPLETED DURING THE DAY TODAY. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH HIGH...POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING...STORM TIDES ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH LESSER BUT STILL DANGEROUS SURGE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. SOME EVACUATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CALLED FOR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES...STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORMS CENTER...OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...WITH A SURGE AROUND 20 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF MOBILE BAY...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVEL EVER EXPERIENCED IN MOBILE. FOR COMPARISON...THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA WERE NEAR 9 FEET WITH HURRICANES FREDERIC AND GEORGES. IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END. A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS WELL. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 3 PM CDT. $$ MCKEE/MEDLIN ** WTNT32 KNHC 281737 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA MENACING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...26.5 N... 88.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 906 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 281739 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 115.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2005 16.9N 115.1W WEAK 00UTC 29.08.2005 16.4N 116.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 16.3N 117.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 16.3N 117.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 87.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2005 25.9N 87.8W INTENSE 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.1N 89.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2005 29.0N 89.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2005 31.9N 88.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 34.8N 86.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.7N 23.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2005 13.7N 23.0W WEAK 00UTC 29.08.2005 11.2N 26.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 10.3N 29.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 11.2N 30.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 13.6N 33.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 15.3N 35.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 16.9N 37.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 18.6N 38.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2005 20.5N 39.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2005 21.0N 40.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2005 21.5N 41.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2005 22.2N 43.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2005 22.9N 44.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.9N 44.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2005 12.9N 44.9W WEAK 00UTC 29.08.2005 13.7N 47.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 16.2N 49.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281739