** WTNT22 KNHC 280603 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0600Z SUN AUG 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 86.8W AT 28/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 150SE 150SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 86.8W AT 28/0600Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 86.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 280600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 28-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT82 KNHC 280609 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA ALC003-097-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045- 047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-670-280900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-280900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ FLC033-091-113-GMZ655-675-280900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...MOB...LIX... ** WTNT32 KNHC 280610 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES... 500 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...25.1 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 280611 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.0N 89.0W 39 X X X 39 MOBILE AL X 12 7 1 20 29.0N 89.8W 10 17 1 X 28 GULFPORT MS 1 16 5 1 23 31.0N 89.8W X 13 8 1 22 BURAS LA 6 19 1 1 27 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA 2 20 3 X 25 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 NEW IBERIA LA 1 17 3 1 22 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X 8 5 1 14 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X 5 4 1 10 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X 2 3 1 6 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 X 1 2 TAMPA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 85W 1 4 3 2 10 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 2 4 GULF 29N 87W 6 11 2 X 19 ST MARKS FL X 1 3 5 9 GULF 28N 89W 26 4 X 1 31 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 5 3 11 GULF 28N 91W 17 10 X X 27 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 5 3 13 GULF 28N 93W 3 12 1 X 16 PENSACOLA FL X 9 7 2 18 GULF 28N 95W X 3 2 1 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 280617 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP UNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0600Z 25.1N 86.8W 125 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.5N 87.5W 125 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 130 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 130 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 90 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 280633 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 20 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA SE INTENSIFICA A CATEGORIA CUATRO CON VIENTOS DE 145 MPH... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DEL BORDE ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.8 OESTE O COMO A 310...500 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE TARDE HOY. INFORMES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTANDO HASTA CERCA DE 145 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 935 MILIBARAS...27.61 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTOS COMO 25 PIES...TAMBIEN CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. LAS LLUVIAS FUERTES DE KATRINA DEBEN COMENZAR A AFECTAR LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DURANTE EL ANOCHECER DEL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS...A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN AUN PRODUZCA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM CDT...25.1 NORTE...86.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...935 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 280638 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-280900- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 130 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HURRICANE HAS INCREASED IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 AM CDT. $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 280600 *** WARNING 280600. WARNING VALID 290600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA AT 19.5N 137.8E EAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 21.5N 133.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 22.8N 129.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 24.2N 124.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 280600UTC 19.5N 137.8E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 290600UTC 21.5N 133.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 300600UTC 22.8N 129.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 310600UTC 24.2N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 19.2N 137.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 21.6N 133.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.2N 129.0E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.4N 124.3E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTUS84 KLCH 280704 *** HLSLCH LAZ052>055-281000- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 2 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR -SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ALSO, THE HURRICANE HAS ENLARGED SLIGHTLY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME... ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ...RAINFALL...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD COASTAL PARISHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EAST OF MORGAN CITY BY MONDAY MORNING...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BETWEEN WEST OF MORGAN CITY AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM... $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 280713 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>053-061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 210 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS... ...RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS NEED TO PREPARE TODAY FOR THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... STONE...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE. IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... MOBILE...BALDWIN...WASHINGTON...CLARKE AND CHOCTAW. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 2 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...CLARKE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OR MISSISSIPPI COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH STORM SURGE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. ANY EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MADE ON SUNDAY. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORMS CENTER. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. A STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY. THESE TIDE HEIGHT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION ALONG PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA. ALSO...A STORM TIDE OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS ALREADY REPORTED ALONG NAVARRE BEACH EARLY THIS MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... BECOMING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT SWIMMERS STAY OUT OF THE WATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ...NEW INFORMATION... KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 500 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING. $$ ** WTPQ31 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.9N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.9N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.1N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.3N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.3N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 137.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 280834 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 0900Z SUN AUG 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 115.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.0N 118.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.8N 119.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 280840 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0900Z SUN AUG 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 87.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 150SE 150SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 87.4W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 87.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 280841 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.0N 89.4W 38 X X 1 39 MOBILE AL 1 17 4 1 23 30.0N 89.8W 7 21 X X 28 GULFPORT MS 3 21 2 X 26 32.3N 89.3W X 7 14 1 22 BURAS LA 17 12 X 1 30 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 NEW ORLEANS LA 7 21 1 X 29 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 NEW IBERIA LA 3 20 1 X 24 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX X 9 2 1 12 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X 4 1 1 6 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X 1 1 X 2 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 85W 1 3 3 1 8 ST MARKS FL X 1 3 3 7 GULF 29N 87W 10 8 1 X 19 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 4 2 9 GULF 28N 89W 39 X X X 39 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 5 1 11 GULF 28N 91W 26 2 X X 28 PENSACOLA FL 1 12 5 1 19 GULF 28N 93W 6 5 X 1 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON C FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE D FROM 1AM TUE TO 1AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 280842 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA ALC003-097-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045- 047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-670-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ FLC033-091-113-GMZ655-675-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC023-281500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050828T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-281500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050828T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...TAE...MOB...LIX... ** WTPZ44 KNHC 280843 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0158Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF CLOUDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT. IRWIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS. IF NO NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IRWIN WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.1N 114.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.1N 115.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.0N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 30/0600Z 16.8N 119.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 280850 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 280851 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0900Z SUN AUG 28 2005 ...CORRECTED WORDING IN NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 87.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 150SE 150SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 87.4W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 87.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 280900 RRD *** 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.3N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 137.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 280900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.9N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.9N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.9N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.1N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.3N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.3N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 137.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 280900 RRC *** 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.1N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.3N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTCA42 TJSJ 280909 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO KATRINA CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE PERO SE ESPERA QUE MUEVA HACIA EL NORTE... ...SE EMITEN NUEVOS AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...FUE EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.4 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 935 MILIBARAS...27.61 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTOS COMO 25 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN AUN PRODUZCA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA...Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. TORNADOS AISLADOS TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES COMENZANDO EL DOMINGO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE SECTORES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...25.4 NORTE...87.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...935 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 280910 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND GROW LARGER. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MOST RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 935 MB... AND THE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED SIGNIFICANTLY... WITH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 137 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS OBSERVATION ALONG WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE AGAIN BEEN EXPANDED. ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE RADII BEFORE LANDFALL...THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND SIZE FORECASTS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED BOTH EAST AND WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT KATRINA COULD APPROACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DOES FORECAST 140 KT AT 24 HOURS... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 135 KT. WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE LANDFALL INTENSITY CANNOT BE NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME... KATRINA WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. KATRINA IS MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... JUST A LITTLE FASTER NOW WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/9. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS HARDLY MOVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH THE NEW FORECAST BASICALLY JUST UPDATES. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS AT MOST 90 MILES... SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RELATIVELY HIGH. HOWEVER...IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT CANNOT BE SPECIFIED AND THAT KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE THAT WILL AFFECT A LARGE AREA... BOTH AT THE COAST AND WELL INLAND. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREAS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 25.4N 87.4W 125 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W 130 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W 135 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W 125 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 280900 RRB *** 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.6N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.9N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTCA42 TJSJ 280912 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT DOMINGO 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO KATRINA CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE PERO SE ESPERA QUE MUEVA HACIA EL NORTE... ...SE EMITEN NUEVOS AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...FUE EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...Y DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.4 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 935 MILIBARAS...27.61 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTOS COMO 25 PIES JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE KATRINA A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO Y EL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN AUN PRODUZCA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA...Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. TORNADOS AISLADOS TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES COMENZANDO EL DOMINGO AL ANOCHECER SOBRE SECTORES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...Y ALABAMA...Y SOBRE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...25.4 NORTE...87.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...935 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 281000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 114.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.1N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 17.0N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.8N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 280900 *** WARNING 280900. WARNING VALID 290900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0513 TALIM (0513) 975 HPA AT 19.5N 136.9E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 21.8N 132.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 280900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 280900UTC 19.5N 136.9E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 290900UTC 21.8N 132.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 300600UTC 22.8N 129.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 310600UTC 24.2N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS82 KTAE 280942 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-770-FLZ008-012-014-281330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 438 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...INCLUDING COASTAL WALTON...BAY... AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT HURRICANE KATRINA WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. KATRINA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KATRINA HAS BEEN GROWING IN SIZE AS WELL...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRACK FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN EXPECTED COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF ASKED TO DO SO. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM THE LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA. LAW ENFORCEMENT FROM WALTON COUNTY HAVE RECENTLY ESTIMATED WAVES UP TO 10 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE...WHICH HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY. THE SURF WILL LIKELY GROW LARGER AS KATRINA HAS INCREASED IN SIZE AND STRENGTH. EVEN THOUGH THE CORE OF STRONG WINDS FROM KATRINA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF FLORIDA... THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ONSHORE WIND TO PRODUCE TIDES OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY... ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES OF WALTON COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS... APALACHICOLA...924 AM SUNDAY AND 1037 AM MONDAY. SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...458 AM SUNDAY AND 618 AM MONDAY. EAST PASS AT DESTIN...528 AM SUNDAY AND 648 AM MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES... TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE...AND A FEW UPROOTED TREES. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL... THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 830 AM CDT. $$ FOURNIER ** WTUS84 KLCH 280942 *** HLSLCH LAZ051>055-281245- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 442 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON... VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THIS NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY ACROSS THE WARNING AREAS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THIS EVENING... INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF MORGAN CITY ON MONDAY MORNING, WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN CAMERON AND MORGAN CITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA, WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM... $$ $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 280946 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-281230- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT62 KNHC 280950 *** TCUAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 450 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA GAINS MORE STRENGTH... ...AT ABOUT 420 AM CDT... 0920Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH. KATRINA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 281004 *** HLSLCH LAZ051>055-281300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 5 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON... VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THIS NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 420 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY ACROSS THE WARNING AREAS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THIS EVENING... INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF MORGAN CITY ON MONDAY MORNING, WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN CAMERON AND MORGAN CITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA, WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM... $$ $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 281055 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 555 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO 150 MPH WINDS... ...RECORD STORM TIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY... ...RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS NEED TO PREPARE TODAY FOR THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 550 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH... MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 550 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TODAY FOR A MAJOR LAND-FALLING HURRICANE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OR MISSISSIPPI COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH STORM TIDES ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. ANY EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MADE SOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORMS CENTER. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A CATEGORY FOUR LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...INCLUDING BAYOU LA BATRE AND DOWNTOWN MOBILE. A STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY. THESE TIDE HEIGHT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION ALONG PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA. IN COMPARISON...HURRICANE GEORGE IN 1988 BROUGHT WATER LEVELS UP TO 8.3 FEET TO BAYOU LA BATRE...AND 9 FEET TO DOWNTOWN MOBILE. A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. TIDAL WATERS WERE REPORTED WASHING OVER SANTA ROSA ISLAND THIS MORNING. A CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...12 TO 14 FEET ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY...AND 10 TO 12 FEET ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 800 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 281059 RRA *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-281230- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 281112 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-281700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 610 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA COULD BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... KATRINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A HURRICANE WELL INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED MAY WANT TO CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH COULD AFFECT THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ TO VICKSBURG TO EUPORA LINE...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH...POSSIBLE. WITHIN THIS AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT WITH THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS AWAY...SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 65 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 15 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON CDT. $$ CRAVEN ** WTNT62 KNHC 281117 *** TCUAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH 160 MPH WINDS... ...AT ABOUT 605 AM CDT... 1105Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH. KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 281127 *** HLSLCH LAZ051>055-281300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN CAMERON... VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THIS NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION...UPDATED AT 620 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALSO, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 905 MB...26.72 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY ACROSS THE WARNING AREAS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THIS EVENING... INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF MORGAN CITY ON MONDAY MORNING, WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN CAMERON AND MORGAN CITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MONDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA, WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM... $$ $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 281151 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 908 MB...26.81 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.7 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 908 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 281152 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1200Z SUN AUG 28 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.7W AT 28/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 908 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 150SE 150SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.7W AT 28/1200Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 87.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$