** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 280011 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18 A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN KATRINA COMIENZA A MOVERSE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE ALABAMA-FLORIDA. POSIBLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA OTRAS PARTES DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS INTERESES EN ESTA AREA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE KATRINA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.9 OESTE O COMO A 360 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE CONTINUAR ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 LOCALIZADA AL NOROESTE DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 54 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA HASTA 64 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA ES DE 944 MILIBARAS...27.88 PULGADAS. DATA DE BOYAS INDICAN QUE OLAS DE 12 PIES ESTAN ACERCANDOSE ACTUALMENTE A PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y SE ESPERAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LA LLUVIA DESDE KATRINA DEBE COMENZAR A MOVERSE HACIA LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO TARDE EL DOMINGO EN LA TARDE HASTA EL ANOCHECER DEL DOMINGO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...24.8 NORTE...85.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 944 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 280025 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>053-061>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-280430- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 725 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... ...HURRICANE KATRINA IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES ARE IN AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH. THE SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES OF STONE...GEORGE... PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES ARE ALSO IN AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH. THE FOLLOWING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES...WASHINGTON...CLARKE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES ARE IN AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMNPWMOB. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING KATRINA A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA SOMETIME MIDDAY MONDAY. ON MONDAY...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH STORM SURGE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. ANY EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MADE ON SUNDAY. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORMS CENTER. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY. THESE SURGE HEIGHT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION ALONG PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA. ALSO...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY... THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... BECOMING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT SWIMMERS STAY OUT OF THE WATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ...NEW INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE ALABAMA COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 1030 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 280031 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-280330- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 730 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HURRICANE HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTAL REGIONS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST NEAR 7 MPH WITH GRADUAL TURN TO TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE UP TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 18.2N 138.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 20.7N 134.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 22.4N 130.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.7N 125.4E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 36N 154E MOVE ESE 15KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST = ** WTKO20 RKSL 280000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME LOW 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 280000UTC 35.7N 153.5E MOVEMENT ENE 15KT PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 280000 *** WARNING 280000. WARNING VALID 290000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 18.3N 138.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 20.7N 134.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 22.7N 129.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 24.1N 124.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0513 TALIM (0513) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 18.3N 138.8E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 290000UTC 20.7N 134.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 300000UTC 22.7N 129.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 310000UTC 24.1N 124.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS84 KLCH 280122 *** HLSLCH LAZ052>055-280515- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 821 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ..HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER... ...HURRICANE KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TO WEST-NORTHWEST... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORHTWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPOSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND 25-FOOT WAVES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANFDALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME... ...RAINFALL...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PARISHES IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM... $$ WILEY ** WTPQ31 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANI ZED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 280000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0513 TALIM ANALYSIS POSITION 280000UTC 18.3N 138.8E MOVEMENT NW 14KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 290000UTC 20.9N 134.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT 48HR POSITION 300000UTC 22.9N 129.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 310000UTC 24.0N 125.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 89KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 138.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 138.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 19.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.2N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.8N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.2N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.7N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 25.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 138.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 280200 RRB *** 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.2N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.8N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 280200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 138.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 138.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 19.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 280200 RRC *** 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.2N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 280200 RRD *** 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.7N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 25.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 138.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 280200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 138.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 138.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 19.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.2N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.8N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.2N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.7N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 25.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 138.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 280232 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 0300Z SUN AUG 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 115.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 118.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.1N 119.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.0N 122.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 280244 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0300Z SUN AUG 28 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 280245 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 280248 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 145 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 25 AND 30 KT...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. SHIPS INDICATES THAT THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IRWIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A DRYER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS...FURTHER DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDING JUST TO THE WEST OF IRWIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 17.2N 114.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 17.1N 115.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 29/1200Z 17.1N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 30/0000Z 17.1N 119.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 31/0000Z 17.0N 122.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 280249 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.0N 89.0W 40 X X X 40 BURAS LA 3 23 1 X 27 29.0N 89.8W 7 21 1 X 29 NEW ORLEANS LA X 23 3 X 26 31.0N 89.8W X 12 9 1 22 NEW IBERIA LA X 18 4 1 23 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX X 7 6 1 14 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X 4 5 1 10 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X 2 3 2 7 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 X 2 3 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 85W 1 4 3 1 9 ST MARKS FL X 1 3 3 7 GULF 29N 87W 6 12 1 X 19 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 5 1 9 GULF 28N 89W 25 6 X X 31 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 5 2 12 GULF 28N 91W 13 14 X X 27 PENSACOLA FL X 9 7 1 17 GULF 28N 93W 2 12 1 1 16 MOBILE AL X 12 7 1 20 GULF 28N 95W X 3 2 X 5 GULFPORT MS X 17 6 X 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 280249 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY. IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 280253 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA ALC003-097-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045- 047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-670-280900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1012.050828T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ FLC033-091-113-GMZ655-675-280900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050828T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050828T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-280900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050828T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...MOB...LIX... ** WTNT22 KNHC 280301 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0300Z SUN AUG 28 2005 ...TO CORRECT THE WIND RADII AT INITIAL TIME... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 280323 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>053-061>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-280800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1020 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL AND INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...CLARKE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMNPWMOB. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING KATRINA A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA SOMETIME MIDDAY MONDAY. ON MONDAY...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH STORM SURGE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. ANY EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MADE ON SUNDAY. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORMS CENTER. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY. THESE SURGE HEIGHT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION ALONG PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA. ALSO...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... BECOMING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT SWIMMERS STAY OUT OF THE WATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ...NEW INFORMATION... MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES ARE NOW UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING. STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES ARE NOW UNDER AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA ARE NOW UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE AROUND 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 280330 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-280700- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER.... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HURRICANE HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTAL REGIONS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH WITH TURN TO TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 280400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 010 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 113.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 113.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.1N 115.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.1N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.1N 118.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.1N 119.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.0N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z. // ** WTUS84 KLCH 280343 *** HLSLCH LAZ052>054-280700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1041 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME... ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ...RAINFALL...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD COASTAL PARISHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EAST OF MORGAN CITY BY MONDAY MORNING AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BETWEEN WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2AM... $$ WILEY ** WTJP32 RJTD 280300 *** WARNING 280300. WARNING VALID 290300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 980 HPA AT 18.6N 138.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 21.0N 133.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 280300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 280300UTC 18.6N 138.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 290300UTC 21.0N 133.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 300000UTC 22.7N 129.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 310000UTC 24.1N 124.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS84 KJAN 280350 *** HLSJAN MSZ025>033-035>066-072>074-281200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1050 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... KATRINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A HURRICANE WELL INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED MAY WANT TO CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH COULD AFFECT THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ TO VICKSBURG TO GRENADA LINE...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH...POSSIBLE. WITHIN THIS AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY EVENING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT WITH THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA STILL 36 TO 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 65 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 20 PERCENT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM CDT. $$ GERARD/CRAVEN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 280408 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN KATRINA AMENAZANDO LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO...AVISO DE HURACAN EMITIDOS... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...UN AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON ESPERADOS DENTRO DEL AREA DE AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER FINALIZADOS. TAMBIEN A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDA DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE ALABAMA/FLORIDA AL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL OESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.2 OESTE O COMO A 335 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE CONTINUAR ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA ES DE 939 MILIBARAS...27.73 PULGADAS. DATA DE BOYAS INDICAN QUE OLAS DE 12 PIES ESTAN ACERCANDOSE ACTUALMENTE A PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DE MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 15 A 20 PIES POR ENCIMA DE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE TAN ALTOS COMO 25 PIES COMO TAMBIEN CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA O AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y SE ESPERAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LA LLUVIA DESDE KATRINA DEBE COMENZAR A MOVERSE HACIA LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO TARDE EL DOMINGO EN LA TARDE HASTA EL ANOCHECER DEL DOMINGO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...25.0 NORTE...86.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 939 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT62 KNHC 280541 *** TCUAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT... 0515Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH... CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 AM CDT...0600Z. THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 280545 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 113.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2005 17.2N 113.6W WEAK 12UTC 28.08.2005 17.0N 115.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 17.1N 116.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 17.0N 117.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 85.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2005 25.2N 85.9W STRONG 12UTC 28.08.2005 25.7N 87.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.2N 88.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 29.5N 88.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 31.4N 88.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2005 33.7N 87.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 36.2N 85.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 39.0N 80.8W WEAK 00UTC 01.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 10.0N 27.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2005 10.0N 27.8W WEAK 00UTC 30.08.2005 9.2N 32.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2005 11.1N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 16.1N 31.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 17.3N 33.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 19.1N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2005 20.3N 38.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2005 21.2N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2005 22.2N 40.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2005 22.9N 43.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280545