** WTCA42 TJSJ 271802 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN KATRINA DE CATEGORIA TRES MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONCHARTRAIN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO 36 HORAS. POSIBLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA OTRAS PARTES DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS INTERESES EN ESTA AREA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE KATRINA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL OESTE DE KEY WEST HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.4 OESTE O COMO A 390 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 230 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 LOCALIZADA AL NOROESTE DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 46 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA HASTA 56 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA ES DE 949 MILIBARAS...28.02 PULGADAS. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y SE ESPERAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LA LLUVIA DESDE KATRINA DEBE COMENZAR A MOVERSE HACIA LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO TARDE EL DOMINGO EN LA TARDE HASTA EL ANOCHECER DEL DOMINGO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...24.5 NORTE...85.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 949 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 17.4N 140.0E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 135.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 21.2N 130.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 21.7N 125.6E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 998 HPA AT 36.3N 151.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 37.5N 153.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 36.3N 151.8E FAIR MOVE ESE 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 37.5N 153.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 990 HPA AT 17.5N 139.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 20.2N 136.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 22.7N 131.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 24.4N 126.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 17.5N 139.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 20.2N 136.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 291800UTC 22.7N 131.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 301800UTC 24.4N 126.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS84 KLIX 271932 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-272200- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 230 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA... ...HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HURRICANE HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST NEAR 7 MPH WITH GRADUAL TURN TO TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE UP TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL SUNDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 PM. $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 139.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 139.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.7N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.8N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.6N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.1N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.9N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 22.7N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 24.2N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 139.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH- WEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 271900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 139.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 139.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.7N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 271900 RRB *** 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.8N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.6N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 271900 RRC *** 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.1N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.9N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 271900 RRD *** 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 22.7N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 24.2N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 139.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH- WEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 271900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 139.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 139.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.7N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.8N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.6N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.1N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.9N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 22.7N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 24.2N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 139.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH- WEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 272030 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 2100Z SAT AUG 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.4W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.4W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.4N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 118.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 121.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 272032 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 272032 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.8N 88.3W 43 X X X 43 NEW ORLEANS LA X 9 11 1 21 27.5N 89.6W 14 15 X X 29 NEW IBERIA LA X 6 12 2 20 29.6N 90.0W X 14 7 1 22 PORT ARTHUR TX X 1 10 4 15 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X 1 8 3 12 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X 1 6 3 10 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 3 3 6 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 2 3 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 29N 85W X 3 4 3 10 ST MARKS FL X X 3 5 8 GULF 29N 87W 2 10 4 1 17 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 5 4 10 GULF 28N 89W 11 15 1 X 27 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 6 4 12 GULF 28N 91W 2 21 2 X 25 PENSACOLA FL X 3 9 4 16 GULF 28N 93W X 11 5 1 17 MOBILE AL X 4 11 3 18 GULF 28N 95W X 2 5 2 9 GULFPORT MS X 6 11 3 20 GULF 27N 96W X X 2 2 4 BURAS LA 1 15 6 1 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 272032 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 2100Z SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 85.6W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 100SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 85.6W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.9N 86.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.8N 88.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 89.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.6N 90.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 38.5N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 43.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 85.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 272033 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... AS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE OUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS 950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR. KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT... WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST A BIT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR AND EXPANDED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 24.6N 85.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 24.9N 86.8W 105 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 25.8N 88.3W 115 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 89.6W 120 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 29.6N 90.0W 125 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 31/1800Z 38.5N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1800Z 43.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 272039 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-280300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050827T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ ALC003-097-MSC045-047-059-GMZ630-650-670-280300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050827T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W AL/FL-BORDER 30.30N 87.45W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-280300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC087-GMZ032-033-075-280300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W KEY-WEST-FL 24.55N 81.81W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...EYW...MOB...LIX... ** WTPZ44 KNHC 272043 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005 MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS EITHER WEAKENED OR BEEN SHEARED OFF WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IRWIN COULD VERY WELL BE A DEPRESSION. INSTEAD...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 35 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND SOME 35-40 KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 27/1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. IN ADDITION... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED RE-DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH COULD BE A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMING. HOWEVER... IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...THEN IRWIN WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW PRESENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 12Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS TAKE IRWIN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS...WHEREAS THE REST OF THE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND THEN DISSIPATE IT AFTER 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT IRWIN WILL BE OVER 26-27C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... I HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH KEEPS IRWIN AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION AFTER 72 HOURS UNDERNEATH GRADUALLY DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT IRWIN MAY DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOME FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 17.4N 113.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 17.4N 114.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 17.4N 116.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.4N 117.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 118.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.2N 121.2W 25 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 17.0N 124.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W 25 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 272104 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-272300- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 945 MB...OR 27.91 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... UTILITY CREWS ARE WELL UNDERWAY WITH RESTORATION EFFORTS. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OPEN...AND COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY RESUME. FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT IS OPEN AS WELL. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICES HAVE RESUMED NORMAL OPERATIONS. FLOODING IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST HAS RECEDED CONSIDERABLY...AND DRIVING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. HOWEVER...OFFICIALS CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH REMAINING FLOODED AREAS. OFFICIALS ARE EVALUATING THE PORT OF KEY WEST...AND WILL KNOW ITS STATUS LATER TODAY. JOHN PENNEKAMP CORAL REEF STATE PARK IS OPEN...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE PARKS IN THE KEYS SHOULD REOPEN SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN RAIN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT MOST KEYS WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. OVER WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS IN RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS IN RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN OPEN WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST...AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN ROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAIN AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. THE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS ENDED...AND FLOOD WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTCA42 TJSJ 272120 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA ORGANIZANDOSE NUEVAMENTE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ES EXTENDIDA HACIA EL OESTE DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL BORDE DE FLORIDA-ALABAMA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE FLORIDA-ALABAMA. POSIBLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA OTRAS PARTES DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS INTERESES EN ESTA AREA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE KATRINA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.6 OESTE O COMO A 380 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 240 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42003 LOCALIZADA AL NOROESTE DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 46 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA HASTA 58 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA ES DE 945 MILIBARAS...27.91 PULGADAS. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y SE ESPERAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LA LLUVIA DESDE KATRINA DEBE COMENZAR A MOVERSE HACIA LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO TARDE EL DOMINGO EN LA TARDE HASTA EL ANOCHECER DEL DOMINGO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 4 PM CDT...24.6 NORTE...85.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 945 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 272200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 17.4N 113.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 113.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.4N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.4N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.4N 117.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 17.3N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.2N 121.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 17.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.0N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z. // ** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 35.9N 152.6E FAIR MOVE ESE 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 36.7N 153.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 272156 CCA *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TALIM ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 28 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TALIM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALIM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 350 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA 340 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 340 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...TAKING TALIM WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...HIGH SURF WILL LINGER IN THE MARIANAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...17.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 140.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM TALIM. $$ MCELROY/HENDRICKS ** WTUS84 KLIX 272200 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-280100- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA.... ...HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HURRICANE HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST NEAR 7 MPH WITH GRADUAL TURN TO TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE UP TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ...NEW INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 PM CDT. $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 272100 *** WARNING 272100. WARNING VALID 282100. TYPHOON WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 990 HPA AT 18.2N 139.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 20.7N 135.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 18.2N 139.6E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 20.7N 135.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 291800UTC 22.7N 131.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 301800UTC 24.4N 126.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 272100 *** WARNING 272100. WARNING VALID 282100. TYPHOON WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 990 HPA AT 18.2N 139.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 20.7N 135.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 18.2N 139.6E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 20.7N 135.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 291800UTC 22.7N 131.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 301800UTC 24.4N 126.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTUS84 KLCH 272232 *** HLSLCH LAZ052>055-280045- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 526 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER... ...HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD ADN STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME... ...RAINFALL...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PARISHES IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 PM... $$ WILEY $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 272234 *** HLSLCH LAZ052>055-280045- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 534 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER... ...HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN VERMILLION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES... ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPOSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDENESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANFDALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME... ...RAINFALL...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PARISHES IN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 PM... $$ WILEY $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 272350 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND 25-FOOT WAVES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. DATA FROM BUOYS INDICATE THAT 12-FOOT WAVES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 272350 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND 25-FOOT WAVES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. DATA FROM BUOYS INDICATE THAT 12-FOOT WAVES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 272350 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND 25-FOOT WAVES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. DATA FROM BUOYS INDICATE THAT 12-FOOT WAVES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$