** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 271214 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-271530- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 820 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH KEY WEST AND WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 940 MB...OR 27.91 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CARE AND DO NOT MAKE ANY UNNECESSARY DRIVING TRIPS THIS MORNING. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS ARE CLOSED AT THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SOME FLIGHTS LATER TODAY. KEYS ENERGY SERVICES REPORTS TEN THOUSAND CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER BETWEEN BIG PINE KEY AND KEY WEST. FLORIDA KEYS ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE REPORTS 900 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER IN THE UPPER KEYS. CREWS IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE REPAIRS WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS FALL BELOW 35 MPH. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... OVER THE LOWER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BRINGING BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM MARATHON THROUGH OCEAN REEF...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM...PEAK WIND GUSTS INCLUDED 48 MPH AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... 48 MPH AT SAND KEY...AND 55 MPH AT DRY TORTUGAS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. OVER WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 8 TO 15 FEET IN OPEN WATERS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND CONTINUE AT 6 TO 9 FEET IN OPEN WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WAVE ACTION FROM STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CAUSE MINOR OVERWASH ON LOW LYING COASTAL ROADS...INCLUDING SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SQUALLS ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...FROM BIG PINE KEY THROUGH KEY WEST. WATERS ON POORLY DRAINED STREETS AND PARKING LOTS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE THIS MORNING. OVER 9.66 INCHES OF RAIN HAD BEEN RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DURING FRIDAY...MAKING FRIDAY THE FOURTH WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN KEY WEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 16.6N 141.2E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 19.4N 137.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.7N 133.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 21.5N 128.6E 955HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 36.6N 150.8E FAIR MOVE ESE 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 38.6N 153.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 998 HPA AT 36.6N 150.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 38.6N 153.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP22 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 992 HPA AT 16.7N 141.2E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 20.1N 137.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 22.8N 133.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 24.3N 129.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 16.7N 141.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 20.1N 137.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 291200UTC 22.8N 133.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 301200UTC 24.3N 129.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPZ24 KNHC 271423 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 1500Z SAT AUG 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.6W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.6W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.6N 117.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.6N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 271500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 141.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 141.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.4N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 19.5N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.2N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.7N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.3N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.6N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 140.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTNT72 KNHC 271430 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.3N 87.6W 42 X X X 42 NEW ORLEANS LA X 3 13 3 19 26.7N 89.0W 17 12 X X 29 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 12 5 18 28.6N 89.9W X 15 7 1 23 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 7 7 14 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X 6 6 12 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX X X 4 6 10 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 2 5 7 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 3 4 VENICE FL X X 1 2 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 85W X 3 5 3 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 3 5 GULF 29N 87W 1 8 7 2 18 ST MARKS FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 28N 89W 3 18 3 X 24 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 5 5 11 GULF 28N 91W X 15 6 1 22 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 6 5 12 GULF 28N 93W X 4 10 3 17 PENSACOLA FL X 1 9 5 15 GULF 28N 95W X X 6 4 10 MOBILE AL X 1 10 6 17 GULF 27N 96W X X 2 4 6 GULFPORT MS X 2 12 4 18 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 1 2 BURAS LA X 8 11 2 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN C FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON D FROM 7AM MON TO 7AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 271432 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1500Z SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.0W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 100SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.0W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 271500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 141.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 141.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.4N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 19.5N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.2N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.7N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.3N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.6N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 140.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 271500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 141.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 141.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.4N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 19.5N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 271500 RRC *** 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.6N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 140.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 271500 RRB *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.2N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.7N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.3N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPZ44 KNHC 271440 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005 A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP IRWIN A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS... WITH SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR EXPECTED AFTER THAT. GIVEN THAT IRWIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 26-27C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM GOING AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH ONLY WEAKENS IRWIN TO 25 KT IN 120 HOURS BENEATH 12 KT OF SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 270/9. THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE WESTWARD AS IRWIN IS STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IRWIN. THIS MOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR VERY NEAR SSTS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE OCCASIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INTERMITTENT STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WOBBLES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THE MEAN WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 17.4N 112.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 17.4N 114.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 115.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 17.6N 117.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.7N 119.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 17.6N 122.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 17.5N 130.0W 25 KT $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 271450 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-272100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050827T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC087-GMZ032-033-075-272100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W KEY-WEST-FL 24.55N 81.81W $$ GMZ054-074-272100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 KEY-WEST-FL 24.55N 81.81W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...EYW... ** WTNT42 KNHC 271450 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATRINA DROPPED TO 940 MB AT 0932Z. SINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS STARTED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...WITH A FILLING OF THE EYE AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 115 KT FROM SAB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT SO FAR ARE 106 KT...WHICH ARE LOWER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR A 940 MB HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD... PARTICULARLY FROM THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH CALL FOR LANDFALL NEAR MORGAN CITY AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL BETWEEN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 24.5N 85.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W 105 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W 120 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 125 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 271451 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES... 655 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT THE DRY TORTUGAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 271522 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-271830- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1120 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 940 MB...OR 27.91 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ABOUT 9000 OF 59000 KEYS ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO UTILITY OFFICIALS. CREWS ARE NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH RESTORATION EFFORTS. IN FACT...UTILITY CREWS FROM THE MAINLAND HAVE TRAVELED TO THE KEYS TO HELP OUR LOCAL CREWS WITH RESTORATION EFFORTS. STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS NOW OPEN AGAIN...AND COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RESUME THIS AFTERNOON. FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT WILL REOPEN AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICES HAVE RESUMED NORMAL OPERATIONS. FLOODING IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST HAS RECEDED CONSIDERABLY...AND DRIVING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. HOWEVER...OFFICIALS CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH REMAINING FLOODED AREAS. OFFICIALS ARE EVALUATING THE PORT OF KEY WEST...AND WILL KNOW ITS STATUS LATER TODAY. JOHN PENNEKAMP CORAL REEF STATE PARK IS OPEN...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE PARKS IN THE KEYS SHOULD REOPEN SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW AT 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT MOST KEYS WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVER WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS...AS WELL AS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS IN RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER TODAY. FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN OPEN WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST...AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ISOLATED VIOLENT WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... NUMEROUS HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. THE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS ENDED... AND FLOOD WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTPQ32 PGUM 271527 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TALIM ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 28 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TALIM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALIM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 350 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA 340 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 340 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...TAKING TALIM WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...HIGH SURF WILL LINGER IN THE MARIANAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...17.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 140.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM MAWAR. $$ MCELROY/HENDRICKS ** WTUS84 KLIX 271534 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-271930- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA... ...HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ASSUMPTION...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINE... LAFOURCHE...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... ...HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST NEAR 7 MPH WITH GRADUAL TURN TO TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATION FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE. RESIDENTS...OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN AREAS VULNERABLE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...SHOULD FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL PARISH OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 18 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL SUNDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 PM. $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 271535 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-271830- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1120 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 CORRECTED STORM INFORMATION SECTION MAX WIND ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 940 MB...OR 27.91 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ABOUT 9000 OF 59000 KEYS ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO UTILITY OFFICIALS. CREWS ARE NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH RESTORATION EFFORTS. IN FACT...UTILITY CREWS FROM THE MAINLAND HAVE TRAVELED TO THE KEYS TO HELP OUR LOCAL CREWS WITH RESTORATION EFFORTS. STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS NOW OPEN AGAIN...AND COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RESUME THIS AFTERNOON. FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT WILL REOPEN AT NOON TODAY. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICES HAVE RESUMED NORMAL OPERATIONS. FLOODING IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST HAS RECEDED CONSIDERABLY...AND DRIVING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. HOWEVER...OFFICIALS CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH REMAINING FLOODED AREAS. OFFICIALS ARE EVALUATING THE PORT OF KEY WEST...AND WILL KNOW ITS STATUS LATER TODAY. JOHN PENNEKAMP CORAL REEF STATE PARK IS OPEN...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE PARKS IN THE KEYS SHOULD REOPEN SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW AT 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT MOST KEYS WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVER WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS...AS WELL AS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS IN RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER TODAY. FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN OPEN WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST...AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ISOLATED VIOLENT WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... NUMEROUS HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. THE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS ENDED... AND FLOOD WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTPN32 PHNC 271600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 112.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 112.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 17.4N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.5N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.6N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.7N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.6N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 17.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 17.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 36.4N 151.2E FAIR MOVE ESE 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 39.0N 153.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTCA42 TJSJ 271543 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN KATRINA DE CATEGORIA TRES MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...SE ESPERA QUE GIRE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE Y SE FORTALEZCA... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONCHARTRAIN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO 36 HORAS. POSIBLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA OTRAS PARTES DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS INTERESES EN ESTA AREA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE KATRINA. A LAS 11 AM...EDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ESTA DESCONTINUADO DESDE KEY WEST HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.0 OESTE O COMO A 405 MILLAS... 655 KM...AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 200 MILLAS... 325 KM...AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN DRY TORTUGAS RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 48 MPH CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 940 MILIBARAS...27.76 PULGADAS. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y SE ESPERAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LA LLUVIA DESDE KATRINA DEBE COMENZAR A MOVERSE HACIA LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO TARDE EL DOMINGO EN LA TARDE HASTA EL ANOCHECER DEL DOMINGO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...24.5 NORTE...85.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 940 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 271500 *** WARNING 271500. WARNING VALID 281500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 992 HPA AT 17.3N 140.9E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 20.6N 137.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 17.3N 140.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 20.6N 137.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 291200UTC 22.8N 133.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 301200UTC 24.3N 129.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 271711 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 112.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2005 17.2N 112.1W MODERATE 00UTC 28.08.2005 17.2N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 17.7N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 17.8N 116.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 17.9N 117.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 84.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2005 24.5N 84.4W STRONG 00UTC 28.08.2005 24.8N 85.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 25.5N 87.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 26.5N 89.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 28.5N 89.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 30.4N 89.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 33.1N 88.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 35.6N 85.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 38.5N 82.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPDILY 00UTC 01.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 9.3N 17.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2005 21.3N 52.0W WEAK 12UTC 28.08.2005 23.0N 54.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.3N 56.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 31.7N 55.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 33.7N 54.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 35.0N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 36.2N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2005 38.0N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2005 39.6N 48.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2005 41.7N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2005 42.7N 38.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2005 42.2N 34.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 9.3N 17.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2005 9.3N 17.0W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2005 10.7N 19.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 12.7N 21.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 14.6N 24.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 16.2N 28.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2005 17.6N 31.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 18.6N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2005 18.7N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2005 19.7N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2005 21.2N 40.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271711 ** WTNT32 KNHC 271738 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE PAST FEW HOURS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 271755 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17...CORREGIDO NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN KATRINA DE CATEGORIA TRES MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...SE ESPERA QUE GIRE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE Y SE FORTALEZCA... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONCHARTRAIN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO 36 HORAS. POSIBLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA OTRAS PARTES DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS INTERESES EN ESTA AREA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE KATRINA. A LAS 11 AM...EDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ESTA DESCONTINUADO DESDE KEY WEST HACIA EL ESTE. CONTINUAN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL LA OESTE DE KEY WEST HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.0 OESTE O COMO A 405 MILLAS... 655 KM...AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 200 MILLAS... 325 KM...AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN DRY TORTUGAS RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 48 MPH CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 940 MILIBARAS...27.76 PULGADAS. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y SE ESPERAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LA LLUVIA DESDE KATRINA DEBE COMENZAR A MOVERSE HACIA LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO TARDE EL DOMINGO EN LA TARDE HASTA EL ANOCHECER DEL DOMINGO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...24.5 NORTE...85.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 940 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 271759 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-272130- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 949 MB...OR 28.02 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ABOUT 9000 OF 59000 KEYS ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO UTILITY OFFICIALS. CREWS ARE NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH RESTORATION EFFORTS. IN FACT...UTILITY CREWS FROM THE MAINLAND HAVE TRAVELED TO THE KEYS TO HELP OUR LOCAL CREWS WITH RESTORATION EFFORTS. STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OPEN...AND COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY RESUME. FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON IS OPEN AS WELL. GREYHOUND BUS SERVICES HAVE RESUMED NORMAL OPERATIONS. FLOODING IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST HAS RECEDED CONSIDERABLY...AND DRIVING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. HOWEVER...OFFICIALS CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH REMAINING FLOODED AREAS. OFFICIALS ARE EVALUATING THE PORT OF KEY WEST...AND WILL KNOW ITS STATUS LATER TODAY. JOHN PENNEKAMP CORAL REEF STATE PARK IS OPEN...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE PARKS IN THE KEYS SHOULD REOPEN SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW AT 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT MOST KEYS WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVER WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS...AS WELL AS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS IN RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE EARLY THIS EVENING. FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN OPEN WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST...AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ISOLATED VIOLENT WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... NUMEROUS HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO BEYOND THE DRY TORTUGAS. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. THE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS ENDED... AND FLOOD WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER