** WTNT32 KNHC 270601 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 135 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 270620 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE...AUN MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA FLORIDA BAY Y PARA FLORIDA KEYS DESDE KEY LARGO HACIA EL SUR Y OESTE HASTA KEY WEST Y DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA FUE LOCALIZADO MEDIANTE RADAR CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.0 OESTE O COMO A 450 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 135 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE Y OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 110 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN INTENSO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 963 MILIBARAS...28.44 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON FLUJO DE VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA AL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DEBE DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA PUEDEN ESPERARSE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA DISMINUYA LENTAMENTE A TRAVES DE FLORIDA KEYS...AUNQUE DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES SON POSIBLES EN ALGUNAS DE LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LA MANANA EN FLORIDA KEYS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...84.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 963 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 270622 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-270930- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 500 AM THIS MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 135 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 963 MB...OR 28.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE CAUTIONED RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO REMAIN INDOORS EARLY THIS MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY OPEN THIS MORNING. BUS SERVICE OUT OF THE KEYS WILL RESUME THIS MORNING. KEYS ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTS TEN THOUSAND CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER BETWEEN BIG PINE KEY AND KEY WEST. FLORIDA KEYS ELECTRIC CO OP REPORTS UP TO FIFTEEN HUNDRED CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. CREWS ARE ASSESSING CONDITIONS AND WILL MAKE REPAIRS WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS FALL BELOW 35 MPH. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK MAINLY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. OVER THE UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN SQUALLS. BETWEEN 100 AM AND 200 AM THIS MORNING...PEAK WIND GUSTS INCLUDED 53 MPH AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...69 MPH AT DRY TORTUGAS...44 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT...AND 56 MPH AT SAND KEY LIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AROUND AND NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES SLOWLY WEST OF THE AREA. PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST WATERS ADJOINING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 8 TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF KEY WEST. TIDES WILL CONTINUE 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS MORNING...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND SOUTH-FACING COASTAL STREETS...INCLUDING SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST...AROUND THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD FRESHWATER FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...ESPECIALLY FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST. EVEN THOUGH RAIN IS DIMINISHING...WATER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH TIDE NEARS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND STORM SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE 800 AM FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS THIS MORNING. OVER 9.66 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DURING FRIDAY...MAKING FRIDAY THE FOURTH WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN KEY WEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 270632 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE...AUN MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA FLORIDA BAY Y PARA FLORIDA KEYS DESDE KEY LARGO HACIA EL SUR Y OESTE HASTA KEY WEST Y DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA FUE LOCALIZADO MEDIANTE RADAR CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.0 OESTE O COMO A 450 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 135 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE Y OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 110 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN INTENSO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 963 MILIBARAS...28.44 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON FLUJO DE VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA AL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DEBE DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA PUEDEN ESPERARSE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA DISMINUYA LENTAMENTE A TRAVES DE FLORIDA KEYS...AUNQUE DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES SON POSIBLES EN ALGUNAS DE LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LA MANANA EN FLORIDA KEYS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...84.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 963 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 996 HPA AT 37.3N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 38.4N 151.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 37.3N 149.3E FAIR MOVE E 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 38.4N 151.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 270600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TS 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 270600UTC 37.3N 149.3E MOVEMENT E 12KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 280600UTC 39.2N 152.1E WITHIN 80NM KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 15.6N 141.9E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.7N 138.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 20.5N 135.0E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 21.2N 130.9E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) 996 HPA AT 15.7N 141.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 19.5N 137.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 22.0N 133.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 23.7N 130.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 15.7N 141.7E FAIR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 19.5N 137.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 290600UTC 22.0N 133.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 300600UTC 23.7N 130.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 18 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 270840 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 0900Z SAT AUG 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.9W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.9W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 125.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 270840 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0900Z SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 24.5N 85.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 88.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.4N 89.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.5N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 40.0N 82.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 84.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 270840 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.0N 87.0W 43 X X X 43 BURAS LA X 3 11 4 18 26.0N 88.7W 19 9 1 X 29 NEW ORLEANS LA X 1 9 7 17 27.4N 89.9W 1 17 4 1 23 NEW IBERIA LA X X 9 7 16 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 4 9 13 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X 4 8 12 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X 3 8 11 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 X 1 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 2 6 8 FT MYERS FL X 1 X 1 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 4 5 VENICE FL 1 1 1 1 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 2 3 TAMPA FL X 1 1 2 4 GULF 29N 85W X 2 4 5 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 29N 87W X 6 6 4 16 ST MARKS FL X X 2 6 8 GULF 28N 89W 1 14 5 2 22 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 3 6 10 GULF 28N 91W X 10 9 2 21 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 3 7 11 GULF 28N 93W X 3 10 4 17 PENSACOLA FL X X 6 7 13 GULF 28N 95W X X 6 6 12 MOBILE AL X X 6 8 14 GULF 27N 96W X X 3 5 8 GULFPORT MS X 1 7 8 16 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 2 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 270847 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS... AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 141.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 141.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.4N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.9N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.3N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.9N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 21.1N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 22.3N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 141.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 270900 RRB *** 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.3N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.9N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: ** WTPN32 PGTW 270900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 141.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 141.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.4N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.9N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 270900 RRC *** NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 21.1N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 22.3N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 141.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 141.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 141.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.4N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.9N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.3N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.9N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 21.1N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 22.3N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 141.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 270900 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 THE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN GOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT 945 MB. WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST... AND THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES... INDICATE THAT KATRINA IS WOBBLING ABOUT A HEADING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST... SO THE LONG-ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE WEST MIGHT BE STARTING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN LATER TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA EASES WESTWARD AND A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAD SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST CYCLES. THE LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS... SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTWARD SHIFTING OF THE MODELS IS ENDING. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK AND A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE DECREASING SPREAD IN THE MODELS... THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INCREASING. KATRINA IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMINGLY CANNOT GET MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING... PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. NOT SURPRISINGLY... UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. THIS WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... BUT IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE TOO LATE TO PREVENT KATRINA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT LANDFALL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO 123 KT... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW PEAKS AT 120 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 12-FOOT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42003 AND ON SHIP DATA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 24.4N 84.4W 100 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 85.4W 105 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 25.0N 87.0W 115 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 88.7W 120 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 27.4N 89.9W 120 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 31.5N 90.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 31/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 82.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 270906 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...REMAINING PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS-BASED SHIPS...SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BEYOND DAY 2. SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF EVEN INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATION SCENARIO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP IRWIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.5N 111.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 113.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 17.5N 115.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 17.5N 125.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 01/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 270909 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA SE CONVIERTE EN UN HURACAN INTENSO CON VIENTOS DE 115 MPH... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL FUE DESCONTINUADO DESDE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HASTA KEY LARGO FLORIDA Y PARA FLORIDA BAY. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA KEY WEST INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN KATRINA FUE LOCALIZADO MEDIANTE EL RADAR Y EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.4 OESTE O COMO A 435 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 165 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE KATRINA SE HA CONVERTIDO EN UN HURACAN INTENSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS. VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE EN EL OESTE DE CUBA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 945 MILIBARAS...27.91 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA EN AREAS CON FLUJO DE VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA AL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA...Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA PUEDEN ESPERARSE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA DISMINUYA LENTAMENTE A TRAVES DE FLORIDA KEYS HOY...AUNQUE DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES SON POSIBLES EN ALGUNAS DE LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA MAS FUERTES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LA MANANA EN FLORIDA KEYS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...84.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 945 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 270923 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-271230- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS... ...ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF THROUGH THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH KEY WEST AND WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS. THE FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST HAS EXPIRED. THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS HAS ALSO EXPIRED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 945 MB...OR 27.91 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE CAUTIONED RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO REMAIN INDOORS EARLY THIS MORNING. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS ARE CLOSED AT THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SERVICE SOME TIME TODAY. ALSO...BUS SERVICE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. KEYS ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTS TEN THOUSAND CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER BETWEEN BIG PINE KEY AND KEY WEST. CREWS ARE ASSESSING CONDITIONS AND WILL MAKE REPAIRS WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS FALL BELOW 35 MPH. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... OVER THE LOWER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM MARATHON THROUGH OCEAN REEF...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM THIS MORNING...PEAK WIND GUSTS INCLUDED 48 MPH AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...63 MPH AT DRY TORTUGAS...53 MPH AT SAND KEY LIGHT...AND 40 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. OVER WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 8 TO 15 FEET IN OPEN WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET IN OPEN WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS THE KEYS...AT LEVELS LESS THAN ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR OVERWASH ON LOW LYING COASTAL ROADS...INCLUDING SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD...WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... ALL FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...FROM THE WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH KEY WEST. ALSO...WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE ON POORLY DRAINED STREETS AND PARKING LOTS IN THE LOWER KEYS THIS MORNING. OVER 9.66 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DURING FRIDAY...MAKING FRIDAY THE FOURTH WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN KEY WEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 37.1N 149.8E FAIR MOVE ESE 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 38.6N 152.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 16.2N 141.6E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 19.7N 137.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 290600UTC 22.0N 133.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 300600UTC 23.7N 130.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 271014 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TALIM ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TALIM CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALIM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 295 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL CARRY TALIM FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...HIGH SURF WILL LINGER IN THE MARIANAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...16.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 141.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST SUNDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN32 PHNC 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 111.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 111.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.5N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.5N 115.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.5N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.5N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 271146 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ...KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH 115 MPH WINDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 940 MB...27.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 271158 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SABADO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DEL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO CON VIENTOS DE 115 MPH... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA KEY WEST INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN KATRINA FUE LOCALIZADO MEDIANTE EL RADAR Y EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.6 OESTE O COMO A 430 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 180 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE KATRINA SE HA CONVERTIDO EN UN HURACAN INTENSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS. VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN OCURRIENDO JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE EN EL OESTE DE CUBA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 940 MILIBARAS...27.91 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA EN AREAS CON FLUJO DE VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA AL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE HOY. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA...Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA PUEDEN ESPERARSE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA DISMINUYA LENTAMENTE A TRAVES DE LA PARTE BAJA DE FLORIDA KEYS HOY...AUNQUE DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES SON POSIBLES EN ALGUNAS DE LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA MAS FUERTES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LA MANANA EN FLORIDA KEYS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...84.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 940 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$