** WTUS82 KEYW 270001 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-270330- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST UNTIL 800 PM EDT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 965 MB...OR 28.50 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE CAUTIONED RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO REMAIN INDOORS TONIGHT. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS REMAIN CLOSED. ALL BUS SERVICE OUT OF THE KEYS IS CANCELLED FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING. KEYS ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTS TEN THOUSAND CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER BETWEEN BIG PINE KEY AND KEY WEST. FLORIDA KEYS ELECTRIC CO OP REPORTS UP TO FIFTEEN HUNDRED CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. CREWS ARE ASSESSING CONDITIONS AND WILL MAKE REPAIRS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. AN AUTOMATED PLATFORM AT SAND KEY OFF KEY WEST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH AT 626 PM...AND KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH AT 625 PM. AN AUTOMATED PLATFORM AT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH AT 602 PM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AROUND AND NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST OVER THE AREA. A PRIMARILY SOUTH WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT WILL SEE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST WATERS ADJOINING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES MAY RUN UP TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND SOUTH-FACING COASTAL STREETS TONIGHT...INCLUDING SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST. A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A TWO AND HALF FOOT SURGE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN KEY WEST AT 510 PM. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST...UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT EDT. WIDESPREAD FRESHWATER FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...ESPECIALLY FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST. PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER. NUMEROUS CARS ARE STALLED OUT. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND STORM SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE 800 AM...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. SINCE THIS MORNING...OVER 9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MAKING TODAY THE FOURTH WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN KEY WEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 270000UTC 37.3N 148.0E FAIR MOVE E 14KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 280000UTC 39.1N 151.4E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 270000 *** WARNING 270000. WARNING VALID 280000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 994 HPA AT 37.3N 148.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 39.1N 151.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC 00HR 37.6N 147.8E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 25KM/H P+24HR 39.8N 153.5E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 270000 *** WARNING 270000. WARNING VALID 280000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0513 TALIM (0513) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA AT 14.1N 142.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.4N 139.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.8N 135.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 21.7N 131.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 270000UTC 14.1N 142.3E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 280000UTC 17.4N 139.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 290000UTC 19.8N 135.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 300000UTC 21.7N 131.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 270000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0513 TALIM ANALYSIS POSITION 270000UTC 14.1N 142.3E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 280000UTC 17.2N 139.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 290000UTC 20.1N 136.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 300000UTC 22.6N 131.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0513 TALIM (0513) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 0513 (0513) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC 00HR 14.1N 142.5E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.0N 139.1E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 19.2N 135.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.8N 131.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTNT22 KNHC 270247 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0300Z SAT AUG 27 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.6W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 55SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.6W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 83.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 270247 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 270247 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.0N 86.0W 46 X X X 46 BURAS LA X 2 11 6 19 26.0N 87.5W 20 10 X X 30 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 8 9 17 27.0N 89.0W 1 15 6 1 23 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 12 14 MUAN 219N 850W 2 X X X 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 9 9 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7 VENICE FL 1 1 X 1 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5 TAMPA FL X 1 1 1 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 3 5 GULF 29N 85W 1 9 3 2 15 ST MARKS FL X 1 4 4 9 GULF 29N 87W 1 13 5 2 21 APALACHICOLA FL X 5 5 3 13 GULF 28N 89W X 11 9 2 22 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 6 4 15 GULF 28N 91W X 1 11 5 17 PENSACOLA FL X 2 9 6 17 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 9 11 MOBILE AL X 1 8 8 17 GULF 28N 95W X X X 6 6 GULFPORT MS X 1 8 9 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 270247 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND CONSISTS OF A PERFECT A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WHICH BEGINS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND WRAPS AROUND A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS BAND IS PROBABLY PRODUCING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE ON IR IMAGES...RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN KATRINA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB ANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT LEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES. IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124 KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS. KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. IN FACT...DATA FROM THE NOAA JET JUST RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD INDICATE THAT THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. KATRINA WILL LIKELY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY AND BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.6N 83.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 115 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 270251 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005 IRWIN REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER AND CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES OF 3.0 OR 45 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...MAINTAINING IRWIN AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE NEXT 96 HOURS AS SST'S REMAIN BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. IRWIN IS CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP IRWIN ON A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...SINCE THIS IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 17.5N 111.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.6N 114.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.6N 116.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 17.0N 124.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 270251 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 0300Z SAT AUG 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.0W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.0W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.6N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 17.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 270253 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA GMZ031-270900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 FLORIDA-BAY-FL 24.95N 80.90W $$ FLC087-GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-270900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 270304 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...PERTINAZ KATRINA CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE...SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN INTENSO EN EL GOLFO DE MEXICO CENTRAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA DESDE KEY LARGO AL SUR Y OESTE HASTA KEY WEST Y DRY TORTUGAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.6 OESTE O COMO A 460 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 115 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 105 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA AHORA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN INTENSO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 965 MILIBARAS...28.50 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA AL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DEBE CONTINUAR DISMINUYENDO ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA Y 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SE PUEDE ESPERAR EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA DISMINUYA LENTAMENTE A TRAVES DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL SUR...SIN EMBARGO 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SON POSIBLES EN ALGUNO DE LAS BANDAS FUERTES DE LLUVIA. TORNADOS ASILADOS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...24.6 NORTE...83.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 965 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 270313 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-270630- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE INPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 965 MB...OR 28.50 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE CAUTIONED RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO REMAIN INDOORS TONIGHT. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN CLOSED OVERNIGHT. ALL BUS SERVICE OUT OF THE KEYS IS CANCELLED FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING. KEYS ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTS TEN THOUSAND CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER BETWEEN BIG PINE KEY AND KEY WEST. FLORIDA KEYS ELECTRIC CO OP REPORTS UP TO FIFTEEN HUNDRED CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. CREWS ARE ASSESSING CONDITIONS AND WILL MAKE REPAIRS WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS FALL BELOW 35 MPH. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WIND GUSTS REPORTED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT INCLUDE 63 MPH AT THE AUTOMATED PLATFORM AT SAND KEY OFF KEY WEST...52 MPH AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 66 MPH AT THE AUTOMATED PLATFORM AT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AROUND AND NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST OVER THE AREA. A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT WILL SEE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST WATERS ADJOINING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES MAY RUN UP TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND SOUTH-FACING COASTAL STREETS TONIGHT...INCLUDING SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD FRESHWATER FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...ESPECIALLY FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST. EVEN THOUGH RAIN IS TAPERING...WATER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND STORM SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE 800 AM...AND ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS MORNING...OVER 9.66 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MAKING TODAY THE FOURTH WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN KEY WEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTPN32 PGTW 270300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151AUG2005 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.5N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.6N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.7N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.3N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.7N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.3N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.1N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 142.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 270300 RRB *** 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.3N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.7N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 270300 RRC *** 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.3N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.1N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 142.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 270300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151AUG2005 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.5N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.6N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.7N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 270300UTC 37.4N 148.8E FAIR MOVE E 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 280300UTC 39.6N 151.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN32 PGTW 270300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151AUG2005 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.5N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.6N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.7N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.3N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.7N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.3N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.1N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 142.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 270400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 17.6N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.6N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.5N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.2N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.5N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z. // ** WTPQ32 PGUM 270400 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TALIM ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 27 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM TALIM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALIM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 205 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 220 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 240 MILES WEST OF TINIAN 250 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM TALIM WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALIM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...14.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 142.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513) ANALYSIS PSTN 270300UTC 15.2N 141.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 280300UTC 18.7N 138.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 290000UTC 19.8N 135.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 300000UTC 21.7N 131.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 270531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 110.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2005 17.8N 110.0W MODERATE 12UTC 27.08.2005 17.8N 111.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 17.8N 113.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 18.8N 114.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 83.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2005 24.7N 83.3W STRONG 12UTC 27.08.2005 24.8N 85.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 24.6N 86.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 25.3N 88.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 26.3N 89.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 28.1N 90.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 29.6N 90.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 31.9N 89.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 34.4N 87.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 36.9N 84.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 18.8N 50.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2005 18.8N 50.5W WEAK 12UTC 27.08.2005 20.5N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 21.5N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 23.3N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 25.1N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2005 28.6N 57.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2005 31.8N 56.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2005 35.1N 56.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 38.3N 55.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 41.2N 55.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 44.0N 52.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 14.4N 20.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2005 14.4N 20.2W MODERATE 00UTC 30.08.2005 15.4N 21.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2005 16.5N 25.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 18.0N 28.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2005 18.7N 31.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2005 20.7N 34.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2005 22.7N 36.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270531 ** WTIN20 DEMS 270552 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 27-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 26.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)