** WTSR20 WSSS 260600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 261200 UTC 00HR 37.2N 144.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR ENE 30KM/H P+24HR 40.6N 151.4E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 261200UTC 37.1N 144.6E FAIR MOVE E 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 271200UTC 40.0N 150.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 281200UTC 45.0N 154.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 261200 *** WARNING 261200. WARNING VALID 271200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 990 HPA AT 37.1N 144.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 40.0N 150.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 45.0N 154.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT32 KNHC 261257 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA... ...FLOODING STILL A THREAT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. INFORMATION FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH WAS REPORTED AT MARATHON AND A GUST TO 46 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 261200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 261200UTC 13.0N 143.8E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 271200UTC 16.7N 144.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTUS82 KTBW 261315 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261530- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 915 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST FORECAST SHOWS KATRINA BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED BUT CONTINUING TO MOVE ON A WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT FOR OUR REGION. GREATEST RISK REMAINS OVER OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS WHERE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 9 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CORE OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... HOWEVER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHWATER FLOODING STILL EXISTS AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE... DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS FROM PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES NORTH CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN RAINBANDS THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KATRINA MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HOLD OFF THE STORM SURGE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS. THE FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA AREAS COULD SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THESE HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING CLEARWATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIDES FROM PORT RICHEY TO CRYSTAL RIVER WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVENING. CEDAR KEY AND THE SOUTH EXPOSURE OF LEVY COUNTY WILL SEE TIDES 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EARLY MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1115 AM. $$ RKR ** WTCA42 TJSJ 261321 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO SOBRE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO A MEDIDA QUE SE ALEJA LENTAMENTE DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA... ...INUNDACIONES TODAVIA SON UN RIESGO PARA EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y PARA FLORIDA BAY DESDE DRY TORTUGAS HACIA EL NORTE...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA DEERFIELD BEACH...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL OESTE Y NORTE HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 9 AM EDT...1300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.0 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS AL NORTE-NOROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA...Y COMO A 65 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UN LEVE AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. INFORMACION DESDE RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR A KATRINA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 50 MPH EN MARATHON Y UNA RAFAGA DE 46 MPH FUE REPORTADAEN LA ESTACION AEREA NAVAL DE KEY WEST. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA AL SUR DE VENICE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DEBE CONTINUAR DISMINUYENDO ESTA MANANA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES AISLADAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 AM EDT...25.2 NORTE...82.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 261338 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-261530- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 938 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO DUCK KEY THROUGH 1145 AM EDT... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO DUCK KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 900 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE CITY OF MARATHON HAS REQUESTED THAT PEOPLE REMAIN IN THEIR HOMES AND DO NOT DRIVE OUT ON CITY STREETS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS TREES... SOME POWER LINES...AND SIGNS DOWN ON ROADWAYS. MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. FLORIDA KEYS VISITORS SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT BOTH KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS MAY TEMPORARILY CLOSE AT TIMES TODAY AS THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE KATRINA PASS THROUGH. EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. THE FLORIDA KEYS ELECTRIC COOP REPORTS 2500 TO 3000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER...AND KEYS ENERGY SERVICES REPORTS 4000 TO 5000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. CREWS ARE UNABLE TO MAKE REPAIRS AT THIS TIME DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THROUGH 1000 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS. DRIVING IS DISCOURAGED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST OVER THE AREA. A PRIMARILY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION TODAY WILL SEE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST WATERS ADJOINING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 6 TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN UP TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS TODAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO DUCK KEY...UNTIL 1145 AM EDT. WIDESPREAD STREET AND PARKING LOT FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MARATHON AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND STORM SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED SINCE ABOUT 300 AM...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY BEFORE NOON IN THE WARNING AREA...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTNT52 KNHC 261352 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 10 AM EDT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY WEST HARBOR. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ52 PGUM 261408 *** TCEPQ2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1200 AM LST SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 1150 PM LST...THE CENTER OF POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM...100 MILES WEST OF ROTA...150 WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTPN32 PGTW 261500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351AUG2005 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 142.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 142.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.5N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.2N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.9N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.4N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 141.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH- EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 261435 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 261435 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 84.3W 48 X X X 48 CEDAR KEY FL 4 8 3 3 18 26.2N 85.2W 32 1 X X 33 ST MARKS FL X 6 5 6 17 27.1N 85.9W 14 7 1 2 24 APALACHICOLA FL 1 7 5 6 19 MUHA 230N 824W 2 X X X 2 PANAMA CITY FL X 4 7 7 18 MARATHON FL 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X 5 10 15 MIAMI FL X 1 X 2 3 MOBILE AL X X 2 11 13 W PALM BEACH FL X 1 1 2 4 GULFPORT MS X X 1 11 12 FT PIERCE FL X 2 2 3 7 BURAS LA X X 2 10 12 COCOA BEACH FL X 3 3 3 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 9 10 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 3 4 5 12 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 7 7 JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 6 13 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 7 9 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 85W 4 9 4 3 20 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 5 7 6 18 KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 89W X 1 6 7 14 MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 8 9 FT MYERS FL 58 X X X 58 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4 VENICE FL 35 X X X 35 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 13 4 1 2 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 261445 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA GETTING STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY WEST HARBOR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 86 MPH IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM A UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA SEA-COOS BUOY IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 261447 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES THROUGH 36 HOURS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 261500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351AUG2005 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 142.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 142.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.5N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.2N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.9N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.4N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 141.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH- EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 261500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351AUG2005 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 142.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 142.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.5N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.2N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.9N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT ** WTPN32 PGTW 261500 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.4N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 141.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH- EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 261454 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.1N 112.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.3N 114.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.3N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 109.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER SISKO/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 261457 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT IRWIN AS A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM. CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR IRWIN IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDS 47 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRWIN TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IRWIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS AND MODERATE SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING UP TO 50 KT. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IRWIN CROSSES BEYOND THE 26 SST DEGREE ISOTHERM SO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD KEEPING IRWIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS OUT TO 72 HRS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE FSSE AND GFS TRACKS THAT KEEP IRWIN TRACKING WESTWARD. THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND GFDL IN THE LATE PERIOD TRACK IRWIN ON A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECASTER SISKO/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.8N 109.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 110.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 18.1N 112.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.3N 114.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 18.3N 116.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 18.2N 120.1W 50 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 31/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 261501 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-261730- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO DUCK KEY THROUGH 1145 AM EDT... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO DUCK KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT JEFFERSON IN THE DRY TORTUGAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 981 MB...OR 28.97 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE CAUTIONED RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS AND OFFICES ARE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. FLORIDA KEYS VISITORS SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS ARE NOW CLOSED. FLORIDA KEYS UTILITY OFFICIALS REPORTED ABOUT 5000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. CREWS ARE UNABLE TO MAKE REPAIRS AT THIS TIME DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THROUGH 1200 PM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH OR MORE...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST. A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY WEST HARBOR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 86 MPH IN STRONG SQUALLS BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1100 AM. IN ADDITION...A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH WAS RECORDED AT BOTH KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND BOCA CHICA NAVAL AIR STATION. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST OVER THE AREA. A PRIMARILY SOUTH WIND DIRECTION TODAY WILL SEE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST WATERS ADJOINING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 6 TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES MAY RUN UP TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND SOUTH-FACING COASTAL STREETS TODAY...INCLUDING SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY TO DUCK KEY...UNTIL 1145 AM EDT. WIDESPREAD STREET AND PARKING LOT FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MARATHON AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND STORM SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED SINCE ABOUT 300 AM...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY BEFORE NOON IN THE WARNING AREA...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTNT42 KNHC 261506 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATES KATRINA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MUCH LOWER...NOW AT 971 MB. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 81 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH SUPPORTS AT LEAST 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE NOAA/KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATES WINDS AS HIGH AS 91 KT AT AROUND 3000 FT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A LITTLE LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. RADAR DATA INDICATES KATRINA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TRACK SHOULD FLATTEN OUT IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DECREASES. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KATRINA IS FORECAST BY THE ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TIMING OF THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE AND AN INDUCED NORTHWARD MOTION OF KATRINA IS THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...A RECENT DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW UP TO 80 KT. SO...A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.1N 82.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 85 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 90 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 100 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ ** WTPQ52 PGUM 261507 *** TCEPQ2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 100 AM LST SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 1250 AM LST...THE CENTER OF POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM...100 MILES WEST OF ROTA...140 WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND 155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTNT82 KNHC 261510 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC015-021-027-071-086-087-115-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-656-657- 676-853-856-873-876-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC011-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC057-081-103-GMZ830-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT22 KNHC 261514 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1530Z FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1530Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1530Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 261514 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA TORNANDOSE MAS FUERTE A MEDIDA QUE SE ALEJA LENTAMENTE DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL NORTE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y PARA FLORIDA BAY DESDE DRY TORTUGAS HACIA EL NORTE...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL OESTE Y NORTE HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.2 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS AL NOROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 75 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DATOS DESDE UN RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA Y REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE KATRINA SE CONVERTIRA EN UN HUCARAN CATEGORIA DOS PARA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...UN BARCO DE NOAA ANCLADO EN LA BAHIA DE KEY WEST REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 59 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE HASTA 86 MPH EN FUERTES TURBONADAS DE LLUVIA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA BASADA EN REPORTES DESDE UNA BOYA SEA-COOS DE LA UNIVERSIDAD DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA ES DE 981 MILIBARAS...28.97 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA AL SUR DE VENICE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DEBE CONTINUAR DISMINUYENDO ESTA MANANA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES AISLADAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...25.1 NORTE...82.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 981 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 261515 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 84.3W 49 X X X 49 TAMPA FL 13 3 1 2 19 26.2N 85.2W 33 X 1 X 34 CEDAR KEY FL 4 7 4 3 18 27.1N 85.9W 14 8 2 1 25 ST MARKS FL X 6 6 5 17 MUHA 230N 824W 1 1 X X 2 APALACHICOLA FL 1 7 6 5 19 MARATHON FL 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 7 6 18 MIAMI FL X X 1 2 3 PENSACOLA FL X X 6 10 16 W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 3 4 MOBILE AL X X 3 11 14 FT PIERCE FL X 1 1 4 6 GULFPORT MS X X 2 11 13 COCOA BEACH FL X 1 3 4 8 BURAS LA X X 3 10 13 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 3 6 11 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 10 11 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 7 12 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 7 7 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 7 8 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W 4 10 4 3 21 KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 29N 87W X 5 8 6 19 MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 89W X 1 7 7 15 FT MYERS FL 56 X X X 56 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 8 9 VENICE FL 35 X X X 35 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 261524 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. ANOTHER RECENT REPORT FROM A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY WEST HARBOR INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 86 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 1130 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 261524 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1530Z FRI AUG 26 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL GUST FROM 80 KT TO 105 KT AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1530Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1530Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ32 PGUM 261527 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST SAT AUG 27 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W POSITION BASED ON LATEST RADAR FIX FROM THE GUAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 77 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 100 MILES WEST OF ROTA 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN...AND 360 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UNTIL IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...13.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 143.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM SATURDAY GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MCELROY/HENDRICKS ** WTNT42 KNHC 261534 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH. GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 261536 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-262130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST COAST CANCELED... ...FLOOD WARNING FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED LOCAL MARINE IMPACT UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT UPDATED STORM SURGE/STORM TIDE IMPACT ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WEST AND NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. A FLOOD WARNING FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1230 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING INLAND MIAMI-DADE...INLAND COLLIER AND INLAND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1130 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINIA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AND STRENGTHENING TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS OR MAJOR HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED. A SHELTER IS OPEN IN IMMOKALEE. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS AT THE HOTLINE NUMBER 239-774- 8444. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PEOPLE BEGIN TO INSPECT DAMAGE...DOWNED POWER LINES CAN KILL. WEAR STOUT SHOES WHEN WALKING AMID DEBRIS...NEVER GO BAREFOOT... AND STAY FAR AWAY FROM ANY DOWNED POWER LINES. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING POWER TOOLS TO CUT UP DOWNED TREES. MAKE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF VENTILATION FOR GENERATORS AS CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING IS A SILENT KILLER IN POORLY VENTED ROOMS WITH GENERATORS OPERATING. DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY ANYWHERE NEAR STANDING WATER BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED POWER LINES THAT CANNOT BE SEEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SOUTHWEST COAST... WINDS ARE BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST TO INCREASE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ONLY ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET BECAUSE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE LOW AROUND 1 PM. THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM...NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 AM SATURDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SOUTHEAST COAST... TIDES ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COASTLINE INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY ARE NOW RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS. THESE TIDES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WIND BECOMES SOUTH AND DECREASES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AT MIAMI HARBOR ENTRANCE WILL BE FROM 2 TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE AS MUCH AS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. LAKE OKEECHOBEE... SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS ARE PUSHING WATER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHORE OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. LAKE LEVELS ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHORES WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE AVERAGE LAKE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE RETURN TO NORMAL BY TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS COLLIER AND PARTS OF BROWARD COUNTIES. AT 6 AM EDT...A WIND GUST TO 39 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT EVERGLADES CITY. IN THE NAPLES METRO AREA...WINDS WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WINDS WILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST FROM CAPE SABLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASING THIS AND EVENING AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE. BEACH GOERS SHOULD SWIM ONLY AT GUARDED BEACHES. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... DURING KATRINA OVER 12.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT HOMESTEAD AIR FORCE BASE AND NEARLY 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NEAR CUTLER RIDGE CAUSING EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. SEVERAL HOMES WERE REPORTED FLOODED IN GOULDS AND HOMESTEAD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A WIDE AREA SOUTH OF KENDALL DRIVE INCLUDING CORAL GABLES AND KEY BISCAYNE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES PROBABLE. RAINFALL ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES WAS MUCH LESS...GENERALLY FROM 1.5 TO 4 INCHES...AND EVEN LESS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT BY KATRINA OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON... SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THESE SPIRAL BANDS CAN PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME...FURTHER AGGRAVATING ANY FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY PRESENT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. BECAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MUCH LOWER IN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THOSE AREAS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN THE SPIRAL BANDS THAT WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTPN32 PHNC 261600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 108.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 108.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.0N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 18.1N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.3N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.3N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.2N 120.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 17.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND 271600Z.// ** WTUS82 KTBW 261539 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261830- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1138 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUES MOVING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AS IT BECOMES STRONGER... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST FORECAST SHOWS KATRINA...WHILE INCREASING IN STRENGTH... CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL LESSEN THE IMPACT FOR OUR REGION. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING THE FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR LEE... CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES TO BE DISCONTINUED AT NOON TODAY. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 7 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CORE OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... WHILE RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE STATE...THE RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED HAVE DECREASE. LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES CAN EXPECT TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. MANATEE...SARASOTA... HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES CAN EXPECT UP TO 1 INCH. AREAS FROM PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES NORTH WILL SEE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN.THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHWATER FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED BECAUSE OF THE REDUCTION IN RAINFALL... ALLOWING THE FLOOD WATCH TO END AT NOON TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KATRINA MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HOLD OFF THE STORM SURGE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS. THE FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA AREAS COULD SEE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THESE HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING CLEARWATER EARLY SUNDAY. TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY SEE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EARLY SUNDAY. TIDES FROM PORT RICHEY TO CRYSTAL RIVER WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING SUNDAY. CEDAR KEY AND THE SOUTH EXPOSURE OF LEVY COUNTY WILL SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 200 AND 230 PM. $$ RKR ** WTUS82 KEYW 261545 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-261730- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1145 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY TO KEY WEST... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY TO KEY WEST UNTIL 300 PM EDT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1130 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT JEFFERSON IN THE DRY TORTUGAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 971 MB...OR 28.67 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE CAUTIONED RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO REMAIN INDOORS TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS AND OFFICES ARE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. FLORIDA KEYS VISITORS SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS ARE CLOSED. FLORIDA KEYS UTILITY OFFICIALS REPORTED ABOUT 5000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. CREWS ARE UNABLE TO MAKE REPAIRS AT THIS TIME DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER. THE FLORIDA KEYS AQUEDUCT AUTHORITY REPORTS NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER SUPPLY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THROUGH 100 PM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH OR MORE...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST. A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY WEST HARBOR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 86 MPH IN STRONG SQUALLS BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1100 AM. IN ADDITION...A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 1126 AM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST OVER THE AREA. A PRIMARILY SOUTH WIND DIRECTION TODAY WILL SEE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST WATERS ADJOINING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES MAY RUN UP TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND SOUTH-FACING COASTAL STREETS TODAY...INCLUDING SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY TO KEY WEST...UNTIL 300 PM EDT. WIDESPREAD STREET AND PARKING LOT FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN ISLAND COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND STORM SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE 800 AM... AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY 300 PM IN THE WARNING AREA...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. SINCE 100 AM...5.08 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 261500UTC 37.3N 145.3E FAIR MOVE ENE 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 271500UTC 39.9N 149.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 281200UTC 45.0N 154.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ52 PGUM 261608 *** TCEPQ2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM LST SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 150 AM LST...THE CENTER OF POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM...110 MILES WEST OF ROTA...145 WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND 155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTCA42 TJSJ 261610 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA FORTALECIENDOSE RAPIDAMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE ALEJA LENTAMENTE DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL NORTE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y PARA FLORIDA BAY DESDE DRY TORTUGAS HACIA EL NORTE...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL OESTE Y NORTE HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.2 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS AL NOROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 75 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES RECIENTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 100 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA AHORA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HUCARAN CATEGORIA TRES O EN HURACAN MAYOR EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85. OTRO REPORTE RECIENTE DESDE UN BARCO DE NOAA ANCLADO EN LA BAHIA DE KEY WEST INDICO QUE RAFAGAS DE VIENTO DE HASTA 86 MPH TODAVIA ESTABAN OCURRIENDO EN LAS FUERTES TURBONADAS DE LLUVIA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 971 MILIBARAS...28.67 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA AL SUR DE VENICE...Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DEBE CONTINUAR DISMINUYENDO ESTA MANANA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES AISLADAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1130 AM EDT...25.1 NORTE...82.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 971 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 261500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 261500UTC 13.2N 143.2E POOR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 271500UTC 17.3N 143.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ52 PGUM 261657 *** TCEPQ2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 AM LST SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 250 AM LST...THE CENTER OF POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM...135 MILES WEST OF ROTA...170 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND 180 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTNT80 EGRR 261728 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 108.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2005 17.7N 108.5W MODERATE 00UTC 27.08.2005 18.8N 110.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 19.4N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 19.6N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 19.6N 116.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2005 25.3N 81.8W STRONG 00UTC 27.08.2005 25.2N 83.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 24.7N 84.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 24.7N 85.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 26.1N 87.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.3N 89.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 29.5N 89.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 32.1N 88.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 34.6N 86.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 37.7N 83.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 20.2N 47.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2005 18.5N 47.8W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2005 19.2N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 21.2N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 22.0N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 24.7N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.6N 55.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 30.2N 54.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 33.8N 55.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2005 36.3N 54.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2005 37.7N 54.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 38.7N 54.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2005 40.2N 52.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.4N 32.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2005 9.4N 33.8W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2005 11.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 13.6N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 13.4N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 13.2N 18.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2005 13.2N 18.4W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2005 13.3N 22.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 13.7N 25.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 15.5N 28.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 17.1N 30.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2005 18.7N 33.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2005 20.4N 35.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2005 22.3N 38.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261728 ** WTNT32 KNHC 261758 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN KEY WEST FLORIDA...A GUST TO 66 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MARATHON IN THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$