** WTNT52 KNHC 260602 *** TCEAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 260605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA NORTH AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC 00HR 36.7N 142.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 38.6N 148.9E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 260600 *** WARNING 260600. WARNING VALID 270600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 36.8N 142.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 37.7N 145.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 38.8N 148.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 43.2N 152.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 36.8N 142.7E GOOD MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM EAST 70NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 38.8N 148.6E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 280600UTC 43.2N 152.1E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT32 KNHC 260700 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...CENTER OF KATRINA EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND KATRINA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 260704 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-260930- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE WIND AND FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS BEEN REDUCED FOR AREAS NORTH OF FORT MYERS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY IF KATRINA DECIDES TO CURVE NORTH SOONER THAN EXPECTED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 3 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN EXPECTED AS RAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHWATER FLOODING STILL EXISTS AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE RAINBANDS. MANATEE... SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS FROM PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES NORTH CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KATRINA MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HOLD OFF THE STORM SURGE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS. THE FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA AREAS COULD SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. THESE HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY REACHING CLEARWATER AROUND NOON. TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET AROUND NOON SUNDAY. TIDES FROM PORT RICHEY TO CRYSTAL RIVER WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVENING. CEDAR KEY AND THE SOUTH EXPOSURE OF LEVY COUNTY WILL SEE TIDES 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 6 AND 630 AM. $$ NOAH ** WTCA42 TJSJ 260712 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 3 AM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...CENTRO DE KATRINA EMERGE FUERA DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ...LLUVIAS FUERTES Y VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y PARA LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA DESDE DRY TORTUGAS HACIA EL NORTE...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA DEERFIELD BEACH...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR Y EL ESTE HASTA EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 3 AM EDT...0700Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.3 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA... Y COMO A 60 MILLAS AL NORTE-NORESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE SE ESPERA TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN RE-FORTALECIMIENTO GRADUAL AHORA QUE KATRINA LLEGO AL GOLFO DE MEXICO...Y KATRINA PODRIA RE-ADQUIRIR FUERZA DE HURACAN TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS AL SUR DE VENICE Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE ESTA MANANA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y FLORIDA KEYS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS POSIBLES. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA KEYS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 3 AM EDT...25.3 NORTE...81.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTKO20 RKSL 260600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TS 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 260600UTC 36.8N 142.7E MOVEMENT ENE 11KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 270600UTC 38.9N 148.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 280600UTC 42.5N 152.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS82 KEYW 260716 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260930- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 315 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 300 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND KATRINA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. NO TOLLS WILL BE COLLECTED ON THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE THROUGH 500 AM THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 500 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST KEYS WATERS...AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. OVER GULF WATERS OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO AROUND 10 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON. STORM TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE REGISTERED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THUS FAR FOR THIS STORM...AND EVEN HIGHER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KEYW 260726 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260930- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 315 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 300 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND KATRINA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. NO TOLLS WILL BE COLLECTED ON THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE THROUGH 500 AM THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 500 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST KEYS WATERS...AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. OVER GULF WATERS OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO AROUND 10 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON. STORM TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE REGISTERED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THUS FAR FOR THIS STORM...AND EVEN HIGHER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.7N 143.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. NWP RESULT IS MODIFIED BY CONSIDERING ERRONEOUS INITIAL FIELD OF NW P. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT52 KNHC 260757 *** TCEAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 4 AM EDT...0800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA AND ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 260803 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-261100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NOW... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT UPDATED WIND IMPACT UPDATED STORM SURGE/STORM TIDE ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 3 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND BISCAYNE BAY. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING WESTERN BROWARD...WESTERN MIAMI-DADE...INLAND COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE...AND WESTERN MIAMI DADE...THE FLORIDA BAY SIDE...COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 3 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA IS BACK OVER THE WATER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NOW THAT KATRINA IS MOVING OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE CAPE SABLE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM. WITH LANDFALL HAVING OCCURRED YESTERDAY EVENING...THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS RECEDING AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE OCEAN SHORELINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR AND AREA REPORTS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND MONROE...AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL WATERS OFF MAINLAND MONROE. WINDS ACROSS THESE AREA ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW END OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH STRONGER GUSTS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS OFF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES WHERE GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY NEAR AND AROUND WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN SQUALLS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS NEAR AND AROUND WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... AS OF 3 AM A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT RAIN GAUGE HAS RECORDED NEARLY 12 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR CUTLER RIDGE. ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL...SIMILAR RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN A BAND CENTERED FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO PERRINE...CUTLER RIDGE AND GOULDS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES IN SOME INSTANCES. OTHER RAINBANDS WILL COME ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING NORTHWARD NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY ONCE THE HURRICANE STARTS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACT... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN RAIN BANDS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM FRIDAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PS ** WTPN31 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260752AUG2005 RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 36.6N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.6N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.8N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.1N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 43.5N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 143.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 260832 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 0900Z FRI AUG 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.2W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.2W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 111.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 113.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.2N 119.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 260834 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LATEST GOES-10 AND GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0518Z AMSU PASS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.5 OR 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND UNCONTAMINATED 35-40 KT WINDS FROM A 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS...T.D. NINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IRWIN. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...PERHAPS ALLOWING IRWIN TO INTENSIFY TO A 50 KT STORM IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HOWEVER HOLDS IRWIN TO 50 KT BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK RELATIVE TO THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS WITH DISSIPATION STILL EXPECTED IN 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. IRWIN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON AN OVERALL WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS DISSIPATE IRWIN IN TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A CIRCULATION AND FORECASTS THE STORM TO MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.5N 108.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 111.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.2N 113.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 18.2N 119.1W 45 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 260900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260752AUG2005 RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 36.6N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.6N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.8N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS ** WTPN31 PGTW 260900 RRB *** --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.1N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 43.5N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 143.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252151Z AUG 05// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260751AUG2005 NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 143.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 143.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 13.5N 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.8N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.3N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.1N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 142.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 252151Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 252200). NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 260841 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0900Z FRI AUG 26 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.4N 83.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.9N 84.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.6N 85.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 33.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 39.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 260842 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC015-021-027-071-086-087-115-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-656-657- 676-853-856-873-876-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC011-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC057-081-103-GMZ830-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-261500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT72 KNHC 260843 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.4N 83.8W 48 X X X 48 VENICE FL 32 X X X 32 25.9N 84.6W 35 X 1 X 36 TAMPA FL 13 4 1 2 20 26.6N 85.4W 17 6 1 1 25 CEDAR KEY FL 4 7 4 3 18 MUHA 230N 824W 6 X X 1 7 ST MARKS FL X 4 6 7 17 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 1 X 2 APALACHICOLA FL X 6 6 6 18 MARATHON FL 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 7 8 17 MIAMI FL 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X 3 11 14 W PALM BEACH FL X 1 1 1 3 MOBILE AL X X 1 11 12 FT PIERCE FL 1 1 1 2 5 GULFPORT MS X X X 11 11 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 2 3 7 BURAS LA X X 1 10 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 4 4 10 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 8 8 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 5 10 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 5 5 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 5 6 GULF 29N 85W 2 9 5 4 20 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 2 7 8 17 KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 89W X X 3 10 13 MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 91W X X X 8 8 FT MYERS FL 53 X X X 53 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 260900 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.3N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.1N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 142.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 252151Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 252200). NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 260900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252151Z AUG 05// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260751AUG2005 NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 143.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 143.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 13.5N 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.8N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS ** WTPN32 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252151Z AUG 05// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260751AUG2005 NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 143.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 143.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 13.5N 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.8N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.3N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.1N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 142.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 252151Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 252200). NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 260851 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 260906 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD PATH TAKEN BY KATRINA OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ITS CENTER SPENT ONLY ABOUT SEVEN HOURS OVER LAND...AND MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE RELATIVELY MOIST EVERGLADES. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT... KATRINA DID NOT WEAKEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AT ABOUT 0530Z... EMERGING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST STILL DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE... WITH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH STILL QUALIFIES AS SOMEWHAT OF AN EYEWALL. A SECONDARY BUT STRONG CURVED BAND ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF THE CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE CHAIN OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND A LARGER OUTER BAND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA TO WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS. WHILE THE LATEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES ONLY SUPPORT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE... THESE VALUES ARE STEADILY CLIMBING... AND THE FIRST DVORAK ESTIMATES OVER THE GULF ARE A UNANIMOUS T4.0/65 KT. THEREFORE... KATRINA IS REASSIGNED HURRICANE STATUS WITH INTENSITY OF 65 KT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KATRINA HAS STARTED TO MOVE NEARLY DUE WESTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/4. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MIGRATE WESTWARD... ALLOWING KATRINA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING. THE NEW SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST... AS HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SEEMS EVEN MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH EMERGING AGAIN OVER WATER. AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING KATRINA TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.... BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 25.3N 81.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 25.2N 82.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 25.4N 83.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 25.9N 84.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 26.6N 85.4W 85 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 28.5N 86.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 31/0600Z 39.0N 79.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 260913 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA READQUIERE CATEGORIA DE HURACAN SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA FLORIDA KEYS Y PARA FLORIDA BAY DESDE DRY TORTUGAS HACIA EL NORTE...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA DEERFIELD BEACH...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL OESTE Y NORTE HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.5 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...85 KM...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UN LIGERO AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85...140 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS AL SUR DE VENICE Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE ESTA MANANA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE EL EXTTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y FLORIDA KEYS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA KEYS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...25.3 NORTE...81.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 987 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EDT Y 9 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 260915 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261200- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 515 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF EVERGLADES CITY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST FORECAST TAKES KATRINA MORE WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT FOR OUR REGION. GREATEST RISK REMAINS OVER OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS WHERE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CORE OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... HOWEVER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHWATER FLOODING STILL EXISTS AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE... DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS FROM PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES NORTH CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN RAINBANDS THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KATRINA MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HOLD OFF THE STORM SURGE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS. THE FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA AREAS COULD SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THESE HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING CLEARWATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIDES FROM PORT RICHEY TO CRYSTAL RIVER WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVENING. CEDAR KEY AND THE SOUTH EXPOSURE OF LEVY COUNTY WILL SEE TIDES 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EARLY MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 7 AND 730 AM. $$ JILLSON ** WTPQ32 PGUM 260945 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST FRI AUG 26 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W FORMS JUST WEST OF GUAM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST..0900Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 145 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM 190 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ROTA 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN...AND 460 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER... RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UNTIL IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...12.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 142.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM SATURDAY GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MCELROY ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 36.9N 144.0E FAIR MOVE ENE 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 39.0N 148.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 280600UTC 43.2N 152.1E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KEYW 260949 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260930- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 545 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN AT NOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 700 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 65 MPH WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. EVEN HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF KEY WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS...WITH SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 65 KNOTS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR 65 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 80 KNOTS...ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST OVER ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON. STORM TIDES WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM HAVE REGISTERED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 730 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTPN32 PHNC 261000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 107.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 107.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.8N 109.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.0N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.2N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 18.2N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 18.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 18.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.// ** WTUS82 KMFL 260953 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-261600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 553 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...SPIRAL BANDS AROUND KATRINA TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT UPDATED WIND IMPACT UPDATED STORM SURGE/STORM TIDE UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WEST AND NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND BISCAYNE BAY. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 7 AM TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING INLAND MIAMI-DADE...INLAND COLLIER AND INLAND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA IS BACK OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY. RESIDENTS OF COLLIER COUNTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS AND A SHELTER IS OPEN IN IMMOKALEE. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS AT THE HOTLINE NUMBER 239-774- 8444. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS DAWN COMES AND PEOPLE AWAKEN AND BEGIN TO INSPECT DAMAGE...DOWNED POWER LINES CAN KILL. WEAR STOUT SHOES WHEN WALKING AMID DEBRIS...NEVER GO BAREFOOT...AND STAY FAR AWAY FROM ANY DOWNED POWER LINES. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING POWER TOOLS TO CUT UP DOWNED TREES. MAKE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF VENTILATION FOR GENERATORS AS CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING IS A SILENT KILLER IN POORLY VENTED ROOMS WITH GENERATORS OPERATING. DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY ANYWHERE NEAR STANDING WATER BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED POWER LINES THAT CANNOT BE SEEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WINDS ARE OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND TIDES ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WATER IS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AT NAPLES WILL BE AROUND 8 PM...AND AGAIN AROUND 530 AM SATURDAY. THE ACTUAL HIGHEST STORM TIDES ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINES WILL LIKELY BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE FORECAST PATH OF KATRINA. TIDES ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COASTLINE INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY ARE NOW RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND HURRICANE KATRINA. THESE TIDES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL AS THE WIND DECREASES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AT MIAMI HARBOR ENTRANCE WILL BE FROM 2 TO 3 PM TODAY AND LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE AS MUCH AS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ARE STILL PUSHING WATER TOWARD THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. LAKE LEVELS ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHORES WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE AVERAGE LAKE LEVEL TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND THE LAKE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS COLLIER AND PARTS OF BROWARD COUNTIES. AT 5 AM EDT...A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT EVERGLADES CITY. IN THE NAPLES METRO AREA...WINDS WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 32 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WINDS WILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST FROM CAPE SABLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS WITH A GUST TO 56 KNOTS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT AT 5 AM EDT. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... AS OF 5 AM...ALMOST 12 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NEAR HOMESTEAD AND NEARLY 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NEAR CUTLER RIDGE CAUSING EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A WIDE AREA SOUTH OF KENDALL DRIVE INCLUDING CORAL GABLES AND KEY BISCAYNE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES PROBABLE. RAINFALL ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES WAS MUCH LESS... GENERALLY FROM 1.5 TO 4 INCHES...AND EVEN LESS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT BY KATRINA OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THESE SPIRAL BANDS CAN PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME...FURTHER AGGRAVATING ANY FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY PRESENT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA TODAY...SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN THE SPIRAL BANDS THAT WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 830 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTNT52 KNHC 260959 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 6 AM EDT...1000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 261001 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260930- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 600 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN AT NOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 700 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 65 MPH WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. EVEN HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF KEY WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS...WITH SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 65 KNOTS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR 65 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 80 KNOTS...ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST OVER ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON. STORM TIDES WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND THE MIDDLE KEYS...INCLUDING MARATHON...UNTIL 1145 AM EDT. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM HAVE REGISTERED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 730 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KEYW 261001 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260930- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 600 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN AT NOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 700 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 65 MPH WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. EVEN HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF KEY WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS...WITH SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 65 KNOTS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR 65 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 80 KNOTS...ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST OVER ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON. STORM TIDES WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS AND THE MIDDLE KEYS...INCLUDING MARATHON...UNTIL 1145 AM EDT. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM HAVE REGISTERED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 730 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTPQ21 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 13.0N 143.8E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 16.9N 144.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT32 KNHC 261056 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA CHURNING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM EDT... FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 261111 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...CORRECTED 13Z TO 11Z IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH... ...KATRINA CHURNING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM EDT... FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 261115 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261330- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 715 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE THE EVERGLADES... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST FORECAST TAKES KATRINA MORE WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT FOR OUR REGION. GREATEST RISK REMAINS OVER OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS WHERE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 7 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CORE OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... HOWEVER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHWATER FLOODING STILL EXISTS AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE... DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS FROM PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES NORTH CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN RAINBANDS THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KATRINA MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HOLD OFF THE STORM SURGE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS. THE FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA AREAS COULD SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THESE HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING CLEARWATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIDES FROM PORT RICHEY TO CRYSTAL RIVER WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVENING. CEDAR KEY AND THE SOUTH EXPOSURE OF LEVY COUNTY WILL SEE TIDES 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EARLY MONDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 900 AND 915 AM. $$ RKR ** WTUS82 KEYW 261117 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-261330- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 720 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE CITY OF MARATHON HAS REQUESTED THAT PEOPLE REMAIN IN THEIR HOMES AND DO NOT DRIVE OUT ON CITY STREETS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS TREES...SOME POWER LINES AND SIGNS DOWN ON ROADWAYS. LIKEWISE...ALL KEYS RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE THEIR HOMES OR PLACE OF LODGING THIS MORNING. MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN AT NOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MAINLAND AIRPORTS DUE TO THE ROUGH WEATHER. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS AND NOT DRIVE ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS AND SOME SIGNS HAVE FALLEN. THROUGH 900 AM...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHER DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME ROOFS AND OVERHANGS...AND POWER LINES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. EVEN HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF KEY WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS...WITH SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 65 KNOTS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR 65 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 80 KNOTS...ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON. STORM TIDES UP TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE BAYSIDE MAINLY IN THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS NEAR KEY LARGO. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS TODAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER KEYS INCLUDING BIG PINE KEY...AND THE MIDDLE KEYS...INCLUDING MARATHON...UNTIL 1145 AM EDT. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM INCLUDE 5 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS...4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 930 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 261123 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA FLORIDA KEYS Y PARA FLORIDA BAY DESDE DRY TORTUGAS HACIA EL NORTE...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA DEERFIELD BEACH...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL OESTE Y NORTE HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 AM EDT...1100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.8 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...85 KM...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA...Y VOMO A 60 MILLAS AL SUR DE NAPLES FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UN LIGERO AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS AL SUR DE VENICE Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE ESTA MANANA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y FLORIDA KEYS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS HOY SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA Y EN FLORIDA KEYS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM EDT...25.3 NORTE...81.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 987 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 AM EDT...SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT52 KNHC 261150 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND 60 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 261159 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-261600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 759 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...SPIRAL BANDS AROUND KATRINA TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WEST AND NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND BISCAYNE BAY. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 7 AM TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING INLAND MIAMI-DADE...INLAND COLLIER AND INLAND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA IS BACK OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY. RESIDENTS OF COLLIER COUNTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS AND A SHELTER IS OPEN IN IMMOKALEE. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS AT THE HOTLINE NUMBER 239-774- 8444. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PEOPLE BEGIN TO INSPECT DAMAGE...DOWNED POWER LINES CAN KILL. WEAR STOUT SHOES WHEN WALKING AMID DEBRIS...NEVER GO BAREFOOT... AND STAY FAR AWAY FROM ANY DOWNED POWER LINES. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING POWER TOOLS TO CUT UP DOWNED TREES. MAKE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF VENTILATION FOR GENERATORS AS CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING IS A SILENT KILLER IN POORLY VENTED ROOMS WITH GENERATORS OPERATING. DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY ANYWHERE NEAR STANDING WATER BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED POWER LINES THAT CANNOT BE SEEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WINDS ARE OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND TIDES ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WATER IS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AT NAPLES WILL BE AROUND 8 PM...AND AGAIN AROUND 530 AM SATURDAY. THE ACTUAL HIGHEST STORM TIDES ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINES WILL LIKELY BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE FORECAST PATH OF KATRINA. TIDES ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COASTLINE INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY ARE NOW RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND HURRICANE KATRINA. THESE TIDES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL AS THE WIND DECREASES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AT MIAMI HARBOR ENTRANCE WILL BE FROM 2 TO 3 PM TODAY AND LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE AS MUCH AS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ARE STILL PUSHING WATER TOWARD THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. LAKE LEVELS ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHORES WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE AVERAGE LAKE LEVEL TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND THE LAKE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS COLLIER AND PARTS OF BROWARD COUNTIES. AT 6 AM EDT...A WIND GUST TO 39 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT EVERGLADES CITY. IN THE NAPLES METRO AREA...WINDS WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WINDS WILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES WEST FROM CAPE SABLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS WITH A GUST TO 47 KNOTS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT AT 7 AM EDT. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... AS OF 7 AM...OVER 12.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT HOMESTEAD AIR FORCE BASE AND NEARLY 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NEAR CUTLER RIDGE CAUSING EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. SEVERAL HOMES WERE REPORTED FLOODED IN GOULDS AND HOMESTEAD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A WIDE AREA SOUTH OF KENDALL DRIVE INCLUDING CORAL GABLES AND KEY BISCAYNE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES PROBABLE. RAINFALL ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES WAS MUCH LESS...GENERALLY FROM 1.5 TO 4 INCHES...AND EVEN LESS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT BY KATRINA OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THESE SPIRAL BANDS CAN PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME...FURTHER AGGRAVATING ANY FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY PRESENT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY EVEN THOUGH KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. BECAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MUCH LOWER IN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THOSE AREAS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA TODAY...SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN THE SPIRAL BANDS THAT WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 1130 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST