** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 260000 *** WARNING 260000. WARNING VALID 270000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985 HPA AT 36.1N 141.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 37.3N 144.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 38.0N 147.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 40.2N 151.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0511 MAWAR (0511) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 36.1N 141.0E GOOD MOVE NE 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM SOUTHEAST 20NM NORTHWEST 30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 38.0N 147.4E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 280000UTC 40.2N 151.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 35.9N 141.0E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR ENE 25KM/H P+24HR 38.0N 146.8E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTNT32 KNHC 260055 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA RELENTLESSLY POUNDING SOUTH FLORIDA...CALM OF THE LARGE EYE EXPERIENCED AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE KATRINA SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB... 29.06 INCHES. THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE JUST MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS82 KMFL 260111 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-260300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 911 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...EASTERN EYE WALL MOVES ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH WIND GUSTING TO 77 MPH AT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATE LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 9 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH...WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTHWEST OF MIAMI. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER ARE OPEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED...THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WILL RECEDE AND REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES WEST THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WATER TO BEGIN PILING UP ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHERE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 80 MPH ARE OCCURRING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF AROUND 65 KNOTS ARE CONTINUING TO OCCUR IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATER TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND...WITH A RAIN RATE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR...IS OVER SOUTH MIAMI-DADE EXTENDING IN A BAND FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO PINECREST... KENDALL...PERRINE...CUTLER RIDGE AND GOULDS. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS 4 TO 8 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND PERSONS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER TURN AROUND DON'T DROWNED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KEYW 260114 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260330- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 915 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHWEST METROPOLITAN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 900 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...WHICH IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND U.S. HIGHWAY 41 IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THIS IS ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF KEY LARGO... AND SOME 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB...OR 29.06 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. IN FACT... THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STRONGER SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS...PRODUCING POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH. DRIVING IS DISCOURAGED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF A GENERAL WEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE BUT GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTUS82 KTBW 260130 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-260400- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 930 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA BATTERS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE... SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 9 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...THIS POSITION WAS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. STEADIER RAINS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 30 TO 45 MPH FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE CENTER OF KATRINA PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... COUNTIES WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1130 PM AND MIDNIGHT. $$ RD/JLC ** WTCA42 TJSJ 260144 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA AZOTANDO IMPLACABLEMENTE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...LA CALMA DEL AMPLIO OJO EXPERIMENTADO EN EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES... ..... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE JUPITER INLET HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCULYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA DESDE KEY WEST HACIA EL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO TAMBIEN EMITIDA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY AL SUR Y AL ESTE HASTA EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLOIRDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER INLET HATA VERO BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMENECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCULYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 9 PM EDT...0100Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.4 OESTE ESTA POSICION ES JUSTO AL NOROESTE DEL SERVICIO NACIONA LDE METEOROLOGIA/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN EL CONDADO MIAMI-DADE. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA..KATRINA DEBE MOVERSE AUN MAS SOBRE TIERRA ADENTRO A LO LARGO DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. VIENTOS MAS FUERTES...ESPECIALMENTE EN RAFAGAS...SON POSIBLES EN EDIFICIOS ALTOS. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL A MEDIDA QUE KATRINA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS EVERGALDES ESTA NOCHE Y EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 984 MILIBARAS...29.06 PULGADAS. EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN MIAMI MIDIO UNA PRESION DE 985 MB...20.09 INCHES. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA FLORIDA. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA...SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 PULGADAS. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 PM EDT...25.8 NORTE...80.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 984 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 12.6N 144.0E POOR MOVE W 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 13.4N 141.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT52 KNHC 260154 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS INLAND OVER THE EVERGLADES ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF HOMESTEAD FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 35.9N 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 35.9N 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.1N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 38.4N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 40.2N 149.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 42.0N 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 141.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 260232 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 0300Z FRI AUG 26 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.3W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.3W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.9N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z FORECASTER COBB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 260233 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF T.D. NINE HAS NOT IMPROVED THIS EVENING AND THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 2.0 OR 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES WARM SSTS. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF HURRICANE HILARY. CONSEQUENTLY...MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST UNTIL THAT TIME. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. FORECASTER COBB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.2N 107.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 108.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 17.9N 111.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 18.2N 113.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 260300 RRB *** 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 38.4N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 40.2N 149.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 42.0N 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 141.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 260300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 35.9N 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 35.9N 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.1N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 35.9N 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 35.9N 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.1N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 38.4N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 40.2N 149.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 42.0N 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 141.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.6N 144.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT32 KNHC 260254 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...EYE OF KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF JUPITER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF HOMESTEAD. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES. EARLIER THIS EVENING A WIND GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECORDED AT MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND 81 MPH AT THE TAMIAMI AIRPORT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 80.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 260254 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0300Z FRI AUG 26 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF JUPITER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 80.7W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 80.7W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 80.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 80.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 260255 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 83.0W 45 X X X 45 FT MYERS FL 56 X X X 56 26.0N 84.0W 31 X 1 X 32 VENICE FL 37 X X X 37 26.5N 84.5W 22 3 1 1 27 TAMPA FL 19 2 2 1 24 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 X 1 2 CEDAR KEY FL 5 8 4 3 20 MUHA 230N 824W 7 2 1 X 10 ST MARKS FL X 5 5 7 17 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 1 2 4 APALACHICOLA FL X 6 6 6 18 MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 3 4 PANAMA CITY FL X 3 5 8 16 MARATHON FL 53 X X X 53 PENSACOLA FL X X 2 11 13 MIAMI FL 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X 1 9 10 W PALM BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 GULFPORT MS X X X 9 9 FT PIERCE FL 35 X X X 35 BURAS LA X X X 9 9 COCOA BEACH FL 4 3 3 4 14 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 7 7 DAYTONA BEACH FL 1 4 4 5 14 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 6 13 GULF 29N 85W 2 8 5 5 20 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 7 8 GULF 29N 87W X 2 5 9 16 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 10 11 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6 KEY WEST FL 40 1 X X 41 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 260255 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA FLC011-086-099-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-087-115-GMZ031-033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876- 260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC061-085-111-AMZ555-575-260900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC057-081-103-GMZ830-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-260900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 KEY-WEST-FL 24.55N 81.81W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...MLB... ** WTNT42 KNHC 260257 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY NEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS... FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG AND LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. THIS SOUTHWEST DIP HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE HIGH WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KATRINA ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 25.5N 80.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 260308 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-261000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1115 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...STRONGEST WINDS NOW WEST OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTY METRO AREAS BUT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT UPDATED WIND IMPACT UPDATED STORM SURGE/STORM TIDE ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH...WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE...INLAND COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS POSITION IS 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER ARE OPEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AFTER KATRINA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LANDFALL HAVING OCCURRED FIVE HOURS AGO...THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS RECEDING AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE OCEAN SHORELINE. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG EAST NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND AT THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 17 TO 18 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 14 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. BY FRIDAY MORNING AS KATRINA CONTINUES WEST THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WATER TO BEGIN PILING UP ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH SHORE OF THE LAKE AND A RECEDING OF WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SHORES. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER SOUTHWEST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...WEST OF THE METRO AREAS...WHERE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 80 MPH ARE OCCURRING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS NEAR 65 KNOTS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING IN SQUALLS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... AS OF 1030 PM A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT RAIN GAUGE HAS RECORED 8.88 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR CUTLER RIDGE. ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL...SIMILAR RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN A BAND CENTERED FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO PERRINE...CUTLER RIDGE AND GOULDS. OTHER RAINBANDS WILL COME ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND PERSONS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER TURN AROUND DON'T DROWNED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM FRIDAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KEYW 260315 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260530- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY LARGO... AND SOME 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KATRINA MOVING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. KATRINA IS STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB...OR 29.06 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. NO TOLLS WILL BE COLLECTED ON THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE THROUGH 500 AM FRIDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 100 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS DURING PASSING SQUALLS. DRIVING IS DISCOURAGED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. A GENERAL WEST WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT WILL SEE SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST KEYS WATERS...WITH GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR OR OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS...ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TONIGHT CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTUS82 KEYW 260322 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260530- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY LARGO... AND SOME 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KATRINA MOVING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. KATRINA IS STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB...OR 29.06 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. NO TOLLS WILL BE COLLECTED ON THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE THROUGH 500 AM FRIDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 100 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS DURING PASSING SQUALLS. DRIVING IS DISCOURAGED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY SUNDAY. A GENERAL WEST WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT WILL SEE SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST KEYS WATERS...WITH GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR OR OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS...ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TONIGHT CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTPN32 PHNC 260400 *** 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 106.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 106.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.5N 108.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 17.9N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 18.2N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 19.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 260400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 260333 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL OJO DE KATRINA MOVIENDOSE AL SUROESTE A TRAVES DE CONDADO DE MIAMI-DADE... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE JUPITER INLET HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCULYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA DESDE KEY WEST HACIA EL NORTE Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY AL SUR Y AL ESTE HASTA EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE JUPITER HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.7 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...AL SUROESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL NOROESTE DE LA CUIDAD DE HOMESTEAD. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE MUEVA AL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL A MEDIDA QUE KATRINA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 10 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS. TEMPRANO ESTA NOCHE UNA RAFAGA DE 87 MPH FUE REGISTRADA EN EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES Y 81 MPH EN EL AEROPUERTO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 984 MILIBARAS...29.06 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS POSIBLES. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...25.5 NORTE...80.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 984 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM EDT Y 3 AM EDT SEGUIDAS POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 260341 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-260600- HURRICANE (INSERT STORM NAME) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1141 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE LATEST TRACK HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLOOD AND WIND IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN EXPECTED AS RAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHWATER FLOODING STILL EXISTS AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES CAN NOW EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE RAINBANDS. MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS FROM PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES NORTH CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KATRINA PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HURRICANE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND WILL CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS. THE FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA AREAS COULD SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THESE HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET...REACHING THE CLEARWATER AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA FROM PORT RICHEY NORTH TO CEDAR KEY...TIDES WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER ON SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 130 AND 200 AM. $$ JLC/DN ** WTJP31 RJTD 260300 *** WARNING 260300. WARNING VALID 270300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 990 HPA AT 36.3N 141.6E EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 37.4N 144.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 38.1N 147.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 36.3N 141.6E GOOD MOVE ENE 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 38.1N 147.6E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 280000UTC 40.2N 151.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT52 KNHC 260359 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THIS POSITION IS INLAND OVER THE EVERGLADES IN EASTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 260410 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 260800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1159 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PENINSULA... ...NEW INFORMATION... FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SINCE KATRINA HAS MADE LANDFALL...AND ALSO MOVED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE EXPECTED PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF KATRINA HAVE BEEN LIMITED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOMESTEAD. KATRINA IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE STILL NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...KEEPING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...WHILE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE LOWER SOUTHWEST COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE LINGERING THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA...AS IT IMPACTS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ARE A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OCCURRING IN PASSING SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCAL STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED... LEAVING ONLY THE CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE NORTH OF JUPITER INLET IS NO LONGER A CONCERN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED ON KATRINA FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. FUTURE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF KATRINA PASSES UNEXPECTEDLY CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. $$ DWS ** WTPQ21 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 12.6N 144.0E POOR MOVE E SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 13.6N 141.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT62 KNHC 260442 *** TCUAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...AT 1240 AM EDT... 0440Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 260443 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA FLC011-086-099-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-087-115-GMZ031-033-656-657-676-853-856-873-876- 260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC061-085-111-AMZ555-575-260900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC057-081-103-GMZ830-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-260900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ075-260900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050826T0440Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W KEY-WEST-FL 24.55N 81.81W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 KEY-WEST-FL 24.55N 81.81W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...MLB... ** WTNT32 KNHC 260501 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING OVER MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN SOON OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...CHANGES TO WARNINGS ALONG FLORIDA EAST COAST... AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BOCA RATON NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA TO FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE KATRINA EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 260507 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION AND TO DISCONTINUE WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE... ...KATRINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING OVER MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN SOON OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...CHANGES TO WARNINGS ALONG FLORIDA EAST COAST... AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM BOCA RATON NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA TO FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE KATRINA EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 260507 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC099-AMZ650-670-260900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC011-260900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050826T0500Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-086-087-115-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-656-657- 676-853-856-873-876-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC057-081-103-GMZ830-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ AMZ610-260900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-260900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTUS82 KTBW 260520 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-260730- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 120 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...KATRINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA BUT WILL SOON RE-EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE LATEST TRACK HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLOOD AND WIND IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 1 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN EXPECTED AS RAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHWATER FLOODING STILL EXISTS AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES CAN NOW EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE RAINBANDS. MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS FROM PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES NORTH CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KATRINA PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND WILL CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS. THE FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA AREAS COULD SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THESE HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET...REACHING THE CLEARWATER AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY SEE TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA FROM PORT RICHEY NORTH TO CEDAR KEY...TIDES WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER ON SUNDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 3 AND 330 AM. $$ JLC/DN ** WTUS82 KEYW 260524 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260730- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED ALL SECTIONS TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KATRINA CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. NO TOLLS WILL BE COLLECTED ON THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE THROUGH 500 AM THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 300 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS BY 300 AM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST KEYS WATERS...AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. OVER GULF WATERS OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO AROUND 10 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON...AND WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 330 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KEYW 260530 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260730- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED ALL SECTIONS TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KATRINA CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. NO TOLLS WILL BE COLLECTED ON THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE THROUGH 500 AM THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 300 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS BY 300 AM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST KEYS WATERS...AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. OVER GULF WATERS OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO AROUND 10 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON...AND WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 330 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KEYW 260533 CCB *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260730- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED ALL SECTIONS TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... FLORIDA BAY...AND NOW INCLUDES THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KATRINA CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. NO TOLLS WILL BE COLLECTED ON THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE THROUGH 500 AM THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO THE AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...INCLUDING WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THROUGH 300 AM...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF KATRINA'S CORE...WILL AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MIDDLE KEYS. OVER THE LOWER KEYS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN SQUALLS BY 300 AM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL AFFECT KEYS WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR MORE OVER MOST KEYS WATERS...AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS OR MORE. OVER GULF WATERS OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO AROUND 10 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...WHILE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BAYSIDE AT MARATHON...AND WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS... ALONG THE BAYSIDE THE UPPER KEYS AND JEWFISH CREEK...MAINLY DURING THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MULTIPLE PASSING RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS SWEEP OVER THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 330 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTNT80 EGRR 260534 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 121.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2005 24.6N 121.5W MODERATE 12UTC 26.08.2005 25.5N 123.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 26.0N 125.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 106.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2005 17.2N 106.9W MODERATE 12UTC 26.08.2005 17.3N 108.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 18.2N 110.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 18.7N 113.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 19.2N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 79.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 79.6W STRONG 12UTC 26.08.2005 26.1N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 25.4N 83.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 25.2N 84.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 25.4N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 26.5N 85.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 28.6N 86.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 30.7N 85.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 33.7N 83.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 37.3N 80.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 19.8N 46.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2005 19.8N 46.9W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2005 20.1N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 21.7N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 23.5N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 24.9N 53.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.5N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2005 29.6N 54.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 32.8N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 34.4N 51.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 34.4N 51.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 35.4N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2005 34.3N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 8.7N 33.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2005 8.7N 33.0W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2005 10.4N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 12.1N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 12.9N 40.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 15.4N 43.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 16.3N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2005 17.7N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2005 19.7N 52.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 22.1N 53.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260534 ** WTCA42 TJSJ 260536 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT VIERNES 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA SE DEBILITA LIGERAMENTE MIENTRAS PASA SOBRE EL CONDADO DE MONROE FLORIDA...SE ESPERA QUE SE REINTENSIFIQUE PRONTO SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO... A LA 1 AM EDT...0500Z...LAS VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN DESDE BOCA RATON HACIA EL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET...Y PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE...HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADOS...Y EL AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO CAMBIADO A AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA HASTA FLORIDA CITY. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y PARA LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA DESDE DRY TORTUGAS HACIA EL NORTE...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HACIA EL NORTE HASTA DEERFIELD BEACH...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY HACIA EL SUR Y EL ESTE HASTA EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1 AM EDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.1 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS...AL SURESTE DE MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA...Y COMO A 60 MILLAS AL NORESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN REFORTALECIMIENTO GRADUAL DESPUES QUE KATRINA LLEGUE AL GOLFO DE MEXICO MAS TARDE EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...PUEDEN ESPERARSE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS AL SUR DE VENICE Y EN FLORIDA BAY. LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE ESTA MANANA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS POSIBLES. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1 AM EDT...25.4 NORTE...81.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...SUROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 3 AM EDT EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$