** WTUS82 KEYW 251816 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-251930- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 215 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...AND ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND KATRINA MAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS REMAIN OPEN TODAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. GREYHOUND KEYS SHUTTLE SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL MEET THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF BUS SERVICE BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE KEYS NEEDS TO BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 330 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 35.2N 139.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 38.8N 145.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 42.3N 152.6E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 251800UTC 35.3N 139.8E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261800UTC 37.8N 145.9E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 271800UTC 40.0N 151.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 251800 *** WARNING 251800. WARNING VALID 261800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 975 HPA AT 35.3N 139.8E EASTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 36.8N 142.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 37.8N 145.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 40.0N 151.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT32 KNHC 251858 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARING THE FLORIDA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST ...OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND KATRINA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 251901 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-252201- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG BROWARD COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE.. UPDATED WIND IMPACT UPDATED STORM SURGE/TIDE ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 3 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 3 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY IN CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL AND KATRINA COULD BECOME CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER WILL LIKELY BE OPENED LATER TODAY...CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER WILL BE OPENED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL PREDICTED THIS EVENING THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR LOW TIDE WITH STORM TIDE HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. BISCAYNE BAY WILL EXPERIENCE AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT 245 PM SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 70 MPH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 30 MILES OFFSHORE HOLLYWOOD. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH OR POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER WILL LIKELY MOVE ASHORE IN SOUTHEAST BROWARD AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS EVENING. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY REACH HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 73 MPH...NEAR THE CENTER FROM AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE TO AN HOUR AFTER LANDFALL EARLY TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF 60 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LAST ALL DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAIN AROUND KATRINA MAY FAVOR HEAVIER RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THIS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROWARD AND ALL OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS...SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THESE HEAVIER BANDS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NOW UNTIL SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KEYW 251911 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-252130- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 310 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 300 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...AND ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND KATRINA MAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS REMAIN OPEN TODAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. GREYHOUND KEYS SHUTTLE SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL MEET THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF BUS SERVICE BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE KEYS NEEDS TO BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTCA42 TJSJ 251920 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 3 PM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA JUSTO DEBAJO DE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DE LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA... ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY... INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA...BIMINI...Y LAS ISLAS BERRY EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO PARA EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. POSIBLEMENTE SE DESCONTINUARA EL AVISO MAS TARDE HOY O DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE-CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT Y PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL EXTREMO OESTE DEL PUENTE SEVEN MILE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLORIDA CITY. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HASTA ENGLEWOOD...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 3 PM EDT...1900Z...REPORTES DESDE RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA Y UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA INDICARON QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE FORT LAUDERDALE Y COMO A 35 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEBE ESTAR CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA Y RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 70 MPH... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY Y ESTA NOCHE...Y KATRINA TODAVIA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...110 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. RAFAGAS DE VIENTO HASTA 37 MPH HAN SIDO REPORTADAS RECIENTEMENTE A LO LARGO DE AREAS COSTERAS INMEDIATAS DE LOS CONDADOS DE PALM BEACH Y BROWARD EN FLORIDA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...TAMBIEN PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREA CON VIENTO HACIA TIERRA EN LAS BAHAMAS. LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN GRADUALMENTE EN LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA...SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 PULGADAS. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 3 PM EDT...26.2 NORTE...79.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT62 KNHC 251940 *** TCUAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE... SHORTLY BEFORE 330 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD THE NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED HURRICANE-FORCE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM WFO MIAMI. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 251942 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252200- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 345 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA HAS INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 3 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THESE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STEADIER RAINS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 20 TO 35 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG WITH AND AFTER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE FREQUENT GUSTS INTO SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES...INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. SHOULD KATRINA SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER EMERGING IN THE GULF...A STORM SURGE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SUNCOAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY FRIDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACH GALE FORCE. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS KATRINA REDEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 530 AND 600 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ RKR/RD ** WTUS82 KMFL 251943 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-252200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 340 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 3 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 3 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY IN CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER WILL LIKELY BE OPENED LATER TODAY...CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER WILL BE OPENED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL PREDICTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR LOW TIDE WITH STORM TIDE HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. BISCAYNE BAY WILL EXPERIENCE AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT 345 PM SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 80 MPH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE HOLLYWOOD. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH OR POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER WILL LIKELY MOVE ASHORE IN SOUTHEAST BROWARD AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS EVENING. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY REACH HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 73 MPH...NEAR THE CENTER FROM AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE TO AN HOUR AFTER LANDFALL EARLY TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF 65 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LAST ALL DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAIN AROUND KATRINA MAY FAVOR HEAVIER RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THIS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROWARD AND ALL OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS...SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THESE HEAVIER BANDS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NOW UNTIL SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTNT52 KNHC 251945 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 4 PM EDT...2000Z... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... AS WELL NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST... OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 251957 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-252130- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 400 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA NOW A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 300 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...AND ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL TONIGHT. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES AT MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE MADE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. GREYHOUND KEYS SHUTTLE SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL MEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF BUS SERVICE BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE KEYS NEEDS TO BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...BEGINNING THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTUS82 KEYW 251959 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-252130- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 400 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 CORRECTED TIME IN FIRST SENTENCE UNDER STORM INFORMATION ...KATRINA NOW A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...AND ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL TONIGHT. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES AT MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE MADE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. GREYHOUND KEYS SHUTTLE SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL MEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF BUS SERVICE BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE KEYS NEEDS TO BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...BEGINNING THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTPZ23 KNHC 252032 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 2100Z THU AUG 25 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 121.2W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 121.2W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.1N 122.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.6N 124.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.9N 126.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N 129.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 135.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 121.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 252033 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB...WHICH ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES. CONVECTION IS STILL A LITTLE THIN...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF HURRICANE HILARY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE GFDL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 7 KT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.2N 106.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.6N 107.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 112.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 252033 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 HAVING FAILED TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...HILARY NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF HILARY PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 24.5N 121.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.1N 122.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 26/1800Z 25.6N 124.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.9N 126.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 252033 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092005 2100Z THU AUG 25 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.6N 107.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 19.5N 124.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 35.2N 139.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 139.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.9N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 38.5N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.4N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 42.7N 153.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 35.6N 140.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 252039 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 2100Z THU AUG 25 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 79.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 79.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.4N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 83.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 79.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 252040 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.1N 81.7W 49 X X X 49 VENICE FL 32 1 X X 33 26.4N 82.8W 28 1 1 X 30 TAMPA FL 23 2 1 1 27 27.0N 83.7W 10 10 2 1 23 CEDAR KEY FL 5 9 4 3 21 MUHA 230N 824W 1 2 X 1 4 ST MARKS FL X 2 6 8 16 MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 6 9 16 MARATHON FL 23 1 X X 24 PANAMA CITY FL X X 4 10 14 MIAMI FL 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 10 11 W PALM BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X X 9 9 FT PIERCE FL 58 X X X 58 GULFPORT MS X X X 8 8 COCOA BEACH FL 30 X X X 30 BURAS LA X X X 8 8 DAYTONA BEACH FL 13 4 2 2 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 7 7 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 7 4 5 17 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA X 1 3 7 11 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X X 2 6 8 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 85W X 3 7 7 17 WILMINGTON NC X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X 3 10 13 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 9 10 KEY WEST FL 17 1 X 1 19 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6 MARCO ISLAND FL 47 X X X 47 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL 46 X X X 46 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 252100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 35.2N 139.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 139.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.9N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 252100 RRB *** 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 38.5N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.4N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 42.7N 153.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 35.6N 140.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 35.2N 139.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 139.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.9N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 38.5N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.4N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 42.7N 153.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 35.6N 140.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 252050 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE KATRINA BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED AT BOCA RATON. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 252054 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA FLC011-086-099-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-260300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC115-GMZ853-873-260300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ FLC061-085-111-AMZ555-575-260300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC057-081-103-GMZ830-260300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-260300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-087-GMZ031-033-656-657-676-856-876-260300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ AMZ610-260300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-054-074-260300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 KEY-WEST-FL 24.55N 81.81W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-260300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...MLB... ** WTNT42 KNHC 252108 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 KATRINA IS NOW A HURRICANE BASED ON NOAA RECON SFMR REPORTS OF SURFACE WINDS TO 64 KT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY NOAA-MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT 3000 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 67 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE MOST RECENT NOAA RECON PRESSURE WHILE COMPOSING THIS DISCUSSION HAS FALLEN 2 MB IN THE PAST HOUR TO 985 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO KATRINA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THE WEST SIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN IS FOECAST TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A SLOW NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT MODEL IN TAKING KATRINA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFDL...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED WIDELY TO THE WEST AND BRING KATRINA INLAND BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA AND GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVEN LESS WEIGHT GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT MUCH FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS STILL A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KATRINA TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL ...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE HURRICANE EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...RESTRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT KATRINA IS NOT FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL ...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IN CONTRAST...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 90 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE TREND IN THE GFDL MODEL... ALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODEL MAKES KATRINA A 118-KT CATEGORY 4 STORM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 26.1N 79.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/1800Z 26.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/0600Z 26.4N 82.8W 50 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 83.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 027 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 120.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 120.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 25.1N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.6N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 15 FEET.// ** WTCA42 TJSJ 252115 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...HURACAN KATRINA ACERCANDOSE RAPIDAMENTE A LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA MIENTRAS SE INTENSIFICA... ...NUEVOS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS PARA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE JUPITER INLET. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE JUPITER INLET HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCULYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. A LAS 5 PM EDT...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA DESDE KEY WEST HACIA EL NORTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO TAMBIEN EMITIDA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA DESDE LONGBOAT KEY AL SUR Y AL ESTE HASTA EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLOIRDA DESDE EL NORTE DE JUPITER INLET HATA VERO BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA GRAND BAHAMA...BIMINI...Y LAS ISLAS BERRY EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTE AVISO PUEDE SER DESCONTINUADO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. A LAS 5 PM EDT... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE LONGBOAT KEY HASTA ANCLOTE KEY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMENECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCULYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.9 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE FORT LAUDERDALE Y COMO A 25 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEBE ESTAR CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA Y RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 75 MPH... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA KATRINA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION LEVE ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA...CON UN DEBILITAMIENTO ESPERADO DESPUES DE QUE KATRINA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS EVERGALDES ESTA NOCHE Y EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...UNA RAFAGA DE 64 MPH FUE REPORTADO EN BOCA RATON. INFORMACION DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA Y EL RADAR DOPPLER INDICO QUE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESTAN MOVIENOD TIERRA ADENTRO EN LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE PALM BEACH...BROWARD...Y MIAMI-DADE EN EL SURESTE DE FLORIDA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...TAMBIEN PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREA CON VIENTO HACIA TIERRA EN LAS BAHAMAS. LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN GRADUALMENTE EN LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA...SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 PULGADAS. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...26.1 NORTE...79.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 985 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM EDT Y 9 PM EDT SEGUIDAS POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 252118 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-260000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 452 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA NEAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED FLOOD IMPACTS UPDATED WIND IMPACTS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY IN CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER ARE OPEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL BE BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH TIDES. A STORM TIDE HEIGHT AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL OCCUR. THE STORM TIDE WILL GRADUALLY FALL REACHING NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. BISCAYNE BAY IS EXPERIENCING AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH IS RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TONIGHT. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE FORT LAUDERDALE 65 MPH...BOCA RATON 64 MPH ...POMPANO BEACH 60 MPH. WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT 445 PM SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 75 MPH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 15 MILES OFFSHORE MIAMI BEACH. WIND GUSTS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF AROUND 65 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND...WITH A RAIN RATE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR...REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WHILE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR FLOODING SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 7 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KMFL 252118 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-260000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 452 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA NEAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED FLOOD IMPACTS UPDATED WIND IMPACTS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY IN CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER ARE OPEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL BE BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH TIDES. A STORM TIDE HEIGHT AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL OCCUR. THE STORM TIDE WILL GRADUALLY FALL REACHING NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. BISCAYNE BAY IS EXPERIENCING AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH IS RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TONIGHT. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE FORT LAUDERDALE 65 MPH...BOCA RATON 64 MPH ...POMPANO BEACH 60 MPH. WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT 445 PM SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 75 MPH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 15 MILES OFFSHORE MIAMI BEACH. WIND GUSTS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF AROUND 65 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND...WITH A RAIN RATE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR...REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WHILE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR FLOODING SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 7 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTPN31 PHNC 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 027 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 120.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 120.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 25.1N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.6N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 15 FEET.// ** WTUS82 KEYW 252147 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-252300- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA NOW A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...OR 75 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TAKING THE CENTER OF KATRINA WEST OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 985 MB...OR 29.09 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. GREYHOUND KEYS SHUTTLE SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL MEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF BUS SERVICE BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE KEYS NEEDS TO BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 730 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTUS82 KEYW 252149 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-252300- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA NOW A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...OR 75 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING. KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TAKING THE CENTER OF KATRINA WEST OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 985 MB...OR 29.09 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. GREYHOUND KEYS SHUTTLE SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL MEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF BUS SERVICE BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE KEYS NEEDS TO BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 730 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTUS82 KTBW 252150 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-260000- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 550 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA STRENGTHENING AS IT BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE... SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST...ABOUT 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE OR ABOUT 125 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. STEADIER RAINS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 30 TO 45 MPH FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE CENTER OF KATRINA PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... COUNTIES WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 730 AND 800 PM TONIGHT. $$ RKR/RD/JLC ** WTJP31 RJTD 252100 *** WARNING 252100. WARNING VALID 262100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985 HPA AT 35.8N 140.3E EASTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 36.9N 142.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 37.8N 145.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 252100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0511 MAWAR (0511) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 252100UTC 35.8N 140.3E GOOD MOVE NE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 20NM NORTHWEST 30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 262100UTC 37.8N 145.8E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 271800UTC 40.0N 151.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT52 KNHC 252152 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 10 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 252202 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 260400- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA AIMING FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST AT 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA...AS IT IMPACTS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL BE A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THESE HAZARDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. HOWEVER... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...IN THE WARNING AREAS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING PASSING SQUALLS. THESE WINDS COULD DAMAGE AWNINGS...BLOW DOWN TREES OR LARGE LIMBS CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF KATRINA...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 3 FEET IN MARTIN COUNTY...DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN RAINBANDS THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION IF THIS STATEMENT...GO TO THE NWS MELBOURNE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB. $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KMLB 252209 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 260400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 555 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA AIMING FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST AT 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA...AS IT IMPACTS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL BE A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THESE HAZARDS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. HOWEVER... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...IN THE WARNING AREAS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING PASSING SQUALLS. THESE WINDS COULD DAMAGE AWNINGS...BLOW DOWN TREES OR LARGE LIMBS CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF KATRINA...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 3 FEET IN MARTIN COUNTY...DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN RAINBANDS THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION IF THIS STATEMENT...GO TO THE NWS MELBOURNE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB. $$ DWS ** WTPN32 PHNC 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 105.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 105.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.6N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.0N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.5N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 19.5N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS82 KMFL 252231 CCA *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-260000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR STORM INFORMATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 452 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA NEAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED FLOOD IMPACTS UPDATED WIND IMPACTS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY IN CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER ARE OPEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL BE BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH TIDES. A STORM TIDE HEIGHT AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL OCCUR. THE STORM TIDE WILL GRADUALLY FALL REACHING NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. BISCAYNE BAY IS EXPERIENCING AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH IS RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TONIGHT. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE FORT LAUDERDALE 65 MPH...BOCA RATON 64 MPH ...POMPANO BEACH 60 MPH. WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT 445 PM SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 75 MPH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 15 MILES OFFSHORE MIAMI BEACH. WIND GUSTS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF AROUND 65 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND...WITH A RAIN RATE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR...REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WHILE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR FLOODING SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 7 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KMFL 252232 CCA *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-260000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR STORM INFORMATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 452 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA NEAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED FLOOD IMPACTS UPDATED WIND IMPACTS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH...WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY IN CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER ARE OPEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL BE BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH TIDES. A STORM TIDE HEIGHT AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL OCCUR. THE STORM TIDE WILL GRADUALLY FALL REACHING NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. BISCAYNE BAY IS EXPERIENCING AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH IS RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TONIGHT. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE FORT LAUDERDALE 65 MPH...BOCA RATON 64 MPH ...POMPANO BEACH 60 MPH. WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT 445 PM SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 75 MPH WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 15 MILES OFFSHORE MIAMI BEACH. WIND GUSTS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF AROUND 65 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND...WITH A RAIN RATE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR...REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WHILE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR FLOODING SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 7 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTNT32 KNHC 252252 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH. AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 80.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 252308 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-260200- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 715 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA... MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE... SARASOTA...MANATEE...DESOTO...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FROM 2 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 7 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST...THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. STEADIER RAINS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 30 TO 45 MPH FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE CENTER OF KATRINA PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... COUNTIES WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL KATRINA PASSES BY THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 930 AND 1000 PM TONIGHT. $$ RKR/RD/JLC ** WTUS82 KEYW 252308 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-260100- HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 715 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTY LINE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY AROUND TO LONGBOAT KEY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST...WHICH IS ON THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH. THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO... OR SOME 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA MOVES WEST NEAR 6 MPH...INLAND AND ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB...OR 29.09 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL REMAIN OPEN FRIDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS AND NO SHELTERS WILL OPEN. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN OPEN WATERS...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 930 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTUS82 KMFL 252351 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-260100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 725 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA MADE LANDFALL ON THE BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE BORDER... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATE STORM SURGE/TIDE IMPACT UPDATE WATCH/WARNING SECTION ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH...WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST AT THE BROWARD... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LINE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER ARE OPEN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH LANDFALL HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED...THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WILL RECEDE AND REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY 10 PM TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE PORT EVERGLADES 92 MPH...VIRGINIA KEY 87 MPH...FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 69 MPH...PEMBROKE PINES 64 MPH...MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 53 MPH AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SWEETWATER 57 MPH. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF AROUND 65 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND...WITH A RAIN RATE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR...REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WHILE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR FLOODING SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 7 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTNT52 KNHC 252353 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS INLAND BETWEEN OPA-LOCKA AND MIAMI LAKES FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT52 KNHC 252353 *** TCEAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS INLAND BETWEEN OPA-LOCKA AND MIAMI LAKES FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA $$