** WTUS82 KEYW 251202 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-251530- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA MAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT PUBLIC SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE SOMETIME TODAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...WITH NEARSHORE AND BAY WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTSR20 WSSS 250600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC 00HR 34.4N 138.4E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 38.6N 143.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 42.0N 150.2E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTUS82 KMFL 251239 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-251600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 839 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...SPIRAL BANDS OF KATRINA MOVING ONSHORE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE.. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COUNTIES STORM TIDE INFORMATION FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE UPDATED ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 8 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES... AND WILL CLOSE EARLY TODAY AND BE CLOSED FRIDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY. PALM BEACH COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ISSUED AN EVACUATION ORDER FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND MOBILE HOMES SOUTH OF LANTANA ROAD. SHELTERS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL OPEN AT 1 PM TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...PERSONS LIVING EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY OR IN MOBILE HOMES WERE URGED TO EVACUATE...AND SOME SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 2 PM. IN DADE PERSONS IN MOBILE HOMES AND SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AND ONE SHELTER WILL LIKELY BE OPENED AROUND MID DAY...CHECK WITH DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. RESIDENTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THAT EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS IF POSSIBLE. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION ANY ACTION TO SECURE BOATS FROM WIND AND RAIN...REMEMBERING TO ALLOW EXTRA LINE FOR THE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL STORM TIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR WITH THE WAVE ACTION. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND TIMING...THE COASTLINE FROM FORT LAUDERDALE NORTH TO WEST PALM BEACH INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND BEACHES CAN EXPECT THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MOST LIKELY NEAR THE HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM FRIDAY. SOME ROADS MAY BE UNDERWATER DUE TO STORM TIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. BISCAYNE BAY WILL EXPERIENCE AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLY FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTH TO MIAMI...BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 73 MPH...NEAR THE CENTER JUST BEFORE LANDFALL TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR ANY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON THE PRESENT PATH WOULD BE FROM HOLLYWOOD NORTH TO WEST PALM BEACH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGE FROM 57 TO 66 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST RANGE ARE ABOUT 50 PERCENT...AND THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST ARE ONLY ABOUT 4 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... ALL MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS TO SECURE BOATS AND OTHER MARINE CRAFT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 31 MPH GUSTING TO 39 MPH REPORTED AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AT 4 AM EDT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA OPPOSES THE NORTH FLOWING GULF STREAM. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES WILL MEAN A HIGHER CHANCE OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST...MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION ACTIONS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH SQUALLS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING LASTING ALL DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF KATRINA MOVES FASTER THAN FORECAST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS TODAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTJP21 RJTD 251200 *** WARNING 251200. WARNING VALID 261200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 34.3N 138.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 36.2N 140.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 38.0N 143.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 40.7N 149.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 45.0N 154.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 251200UTC 34.3N 138.6E GOOD MOVE NE 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261200UTC 38.0N 143.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 271200UTC 40.7N 149.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 281200UTC 45.0N 154.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 251200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 251200UTC 45N 164E MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST = ** WTKO20 RKSL 251200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME LOW 0512 GUCHOL ANALYSIS POSITION 251200UTC 45.3N 164.3E MOVEMENT NNE 20KT PRES 992HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 251500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 34.4N 138.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 138.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 36.1N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.6N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 39.2N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 41.4N 150.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 46.6N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 34.8N 139.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 251300 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.6N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 39.2N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 41.4N 150.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 46.6N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL ** WTPN31 PGTW 251300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 34.4N 138.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 138.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 36.1N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 251300 RRC *** --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 34.8N 139.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 251300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 34.4N 138.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 138.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 36.1N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.6N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 39.2N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 41.4N 150.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 46.6N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 34.8N 139.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 251435 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM... EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 251435 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON CONTINUITY...AS THE CENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE IN INFRARED OR NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY...AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCHANGED IN GRADUALLY BENDING THE TRACK TO THE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HILARY IS OVER 22C SSTS AND IS NO LONGER GENERATING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING SINCE AN 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD NUMEROUS 40 KT VECTORS. IF NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...HILARY WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.7N 120.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 24.4N 121.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 26/1200Z 25.1N 123.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/0000Z 25.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 251436 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1500Z THU AUG 25 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.3W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.3W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.2N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.7N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.1N 84.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.0N 82.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 251437 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.2N 81.0W 48 X X X 48 FT MYERS FL 35 1 X X 36 26.3N 82.0W 32 1 X X 33 VENICE FL 24 4 1 X 29 26.7N 83.0W 15 8 2 1 26 TAMPA FL 17 6 2 1 26 MUHA 230N 824W X 2 1 2 5 CEDAR KEY FL 3 9 4 4 20 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 ST MARKS FL X 1 6 8 15 MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 5 9 15 MARATHON FL 18 1 X 1 20 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 10 13 MIAMI FL 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X X 10 10 W PALM BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X X 7 7 FT PIERCE FL 53 X X X 53 GULFPORT MS X X X 7 7 COCOA BEACH FL 32 X X 1 33 BURAS LA X X X 7 7 DAYTONA BEACH FL 14 4 2 2 22 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 5 5 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 5 4 6 16 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 7 9 GULF 29N 85W X 1 8 8 17 CHARLESTON SC X X 1 5 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 2 10 12 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X X X 9 9 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5 KEY WEST FL 12 3 1 1 17 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL 34 X X X 34 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 251440 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-252100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-087-GMZ031-033-656-657-676-856-876-252100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-252100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-252100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-252100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...MLB... ** WTPZ23 KNHC 251441 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 1500Z THU AUG 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.4N 121.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.1N 123.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.6N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 133.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 251445 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-251730- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ADDED TORNADO IMPACT INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...AND ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND KATRINA MAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS REMAIN OPEN TODAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...WITH NEARSHORE AND BAY WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 251504 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 KATRINA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW ISOLATED DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 68 KT AT 9000-10000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THE AVERAGE DOPPLER VELOCITIES OVER A 1-NMI STRETCH HAVE BEEN AROUND 55 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 50-KT SURFACE WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WITH SFMR CAPABILITY IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KATRINA... AND A RECENT REPORT INDICATES THE PRESSURE IS NOW LOWER AT 990 MB. HOWEVER... THIS PRESSURE DROP HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/5. 06Z AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 32N LATITUDE. THIS HAS CREATED A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KATRINA MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE UKMET IS THE EASTERNMOST AND FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS KATRINA ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFDL IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS TRACK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SOME DEGREE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFDL IS TAKING KATRINA TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS GRADUALLY BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KATRINA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR INTO THE INNER CORE AND HAS CAUSED THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE AND MIAMI INDICATE NUMEROUS SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING IN THE LARGE DRY SLOT TO THE NORTH...AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OVER THE VERY WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...KATRINA COULD STILL POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.2N 79.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 26.2N 80.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 26.2N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 82.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 83.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 28.1N 84.3W 70 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 82.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 251506 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA FORTALECIENDOSE GRADUALMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DE LOS ESTRECHOS DE LAS FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY... INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA...BIMINI...Y LAS ISLAS BERRY EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO PARA EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE-CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT Y PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL EXTREMO OESTE DEL PUENTE SEVEN MILE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLORIDA CITY. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HASTA ENGLEWOOD...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS... 85 KM...AL ESTE DE FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEBE ESTAR CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY Y ESTA NOCHE...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION DE OBSERVACION AUTOMATIZADA EN SETTLEMENT POINT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 33. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...TAMBIEN PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREA CON VIENTO HACIA TIERRA EN LAS BAHAMAS. LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN GRADUALMENTE EN LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA...SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...26.2 NORTE...79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM EDT Y 3 PM EDT SEGUIDAS POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 251506 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA FORTALECIENDOSE GRADUALMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DE LOS ESTRECHOS DE LAS FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY... INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA...BIMINI...Y LAS ISLAS BERRY EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO PARA EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE-CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT Y PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL EXTREMO OESTE DEL PUENTE SEVEN MILE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLORIDA CITY. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HASTA ENGLEWOOD...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS... 85 KM...AL ESTE DE FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEBE ESTAR CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY Y ESTA NOCHE...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION DE OBSERVACION AUTOMATIZADA EN SETTLEMENT POINT EN LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 33. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...TAMBIEN PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREA CON VIENTO HACIA TIERRA EN LAS BAHAMAS. LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN GRADUALMENTE EN LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA...SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...26.2 NORTE...79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM EDT Y 3 PM EDT SEGUIDAS POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 251600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 120.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 120.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.4N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 25.1N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 25.6N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 26.0N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 26.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.// ** WTUS82 KMLB 251529 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 252200- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1128 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS THAT ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST THREAT SITUATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION MAY SLOW BEFORE THE CENTER PUSHES ASHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT KATRINA MAY REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY... STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS MORNING. EVACUATIONS ...AS NECESSARY...SHOULD BE CONDUCTED ACCORDING TO THE DIRECTION OF LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR ACTION PLAN...AND STAY ON TOP OF THIS STORM THREAT SITUATION. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS FAR NORTH AS VERO BEACH. IMPORTANTLY...THE LATEST PROJECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO MARTIN COUNTY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING NORTH AND INLAND INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN PASSING SQUALLS IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THESE WINDS COULD DAMAGE AWNINGS...BLOW DOWN TREES OR LARGE LIMBS CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS...REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER...THE STORM SURGE FOR MARTIN COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET...DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD. LARGE SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF KATRINA...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM...WITH A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. IF KATRINA MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IMPACTS FROM FLOODING RAINS COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TODAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE WELL INTO FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE THREAT AREA IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ELSEWHERE...A LOW TO VERY LOW THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NUMEROUS SQUALLS FROM ABOUT CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD AFFECT THE WATERS FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN SQUALLS. STEEP AND VERY HAZARDOUS WAVES NEAR 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF STREAM... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. ALSO...BATTERING WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION IF THIS STATEMENT...GO TO THE NWS MELBOURNE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB. $$ LASCODY ** WTUS82 KTBW 251532 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251800- HURRICANE (INSERT STORM NAME) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1130 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST...ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS GENERALLY MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA. FOR TODAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STEADIER RAINS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG WITH AND AFTER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH INTO SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES...INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. SHOULD KATRINA SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER EMERGING IN THE GULF...A STORM SURGE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SUNCOAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY FRIDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACH GALE FORCE. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS KATRINA REDEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 130 AND 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ RKR/RD ** WTUS82 KMFL 251539 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-252200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1028 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA MOVING STRAIGHT WEST TOWARD FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE.. UPDATED STORM SURGE/TIDE INFORMATION UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND TODAY AND KATRINA COULD BECOME CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI- DADE COUNTIES...PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED TODAY AND TONIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASING SQUALLS. IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER WILL LIKELY BE OPENED LATER TODAY...CHECK WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS. IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BEGIN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER WILL BE OPENED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE LANDFALL OCCURS NEAR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AT 148 AM THE STORM TIDE ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...THE ACTUAL HEIGHT OF THE WATER AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ALONG WITH THIS LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL HIT THE OCEAN SHORELINE. BISCAYNE BAY WILL EXPERIENCE AN OFFSHORE WIND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE... ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLY FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTH TO MIAMI...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 73 MPH...NEAR THE CENTER JUST BEFORE LANDFALL EARLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND IN THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGE FROM 73 TO 84 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST RANGE ARE ABOUT 50 PERCENT...AND THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST ARE ONLY ABOUT 5 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... ALL MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS TO SECURE BOATS AND OTHER MARINE CRAFT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 31 MPH GUSTING TO 39 MPH REPORTED AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AT 4 AM EDT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA OPPOSES THE NORTH FLOWING GULF STREAM. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES WILL MEAN A HIGHER CHANCE OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST...MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION ACTIONS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH SQUALLS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LAST ALL DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAIN AROUND KATRINA MAY FAVOR HEAVIER RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THIS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROWARD AND ALL OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIES RAIN BANDS...SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THESE HEAVIER BANDS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NOW UNTIL SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 5 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTNT52 KNHC 251547 *** TCEAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 12 PM EDT...1600Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT52 KNHC 251547 *** TCEAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 12 PM EDT...1600Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 251500 *** WARNING 251500. WARNING VALID 261500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 965 HPA AT 34.8N 139.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 36.5N 141.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 38.2N 144.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 251500UTC 34.8N 139.2E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261500UTC 38.2N 144.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 271200UTC 40.7N 149.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 281200UTC 45.0N 154.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 251600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 120.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 120.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.4N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 25.1N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 25.6N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 26.0N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 251600 RRB *** --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 26.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 251600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 120.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 120.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.4N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 25.1N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 25.6N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 26.0N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 26.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.// ** WTNT52 KNHC 251547 *** TCEAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 12 PM EDT...1600Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 251500 *** WARNING 251500. WARNING VALID 261500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 965 HPA AT 34.8N 139.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 36.5N 141.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 38.2N 144.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 251500UTC 34.8N 139.2E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261500UTC 38.2N 144.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 271200UTC 40.7N 149.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 281200UTC 45.0N 154.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT32 KNHC 251642 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST ...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN21 PHNC 251630 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251621Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 104.3W TO 16.9N 108.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 251145Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED 16.7N 104.9W, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 261630Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 251500 *** WARNING 251500. WARNING VALID 261500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 965 HPA AT 34.8N 139.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 36.5N 141.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 38.2N 144.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 251500UTC 34.8N 139.2E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261500UTC 38.2N 144.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 271200UTC 40.7N 149.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 281200UTC 45.0N 154.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KEYW 251705 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-251930- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 105 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...AND ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND KATRINA MAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS REMAIN OPEN TODAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OFFICIALS EXPECT FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR AIRLINES SERVING KEY WEST TO MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AIRPORTS. LESS OF AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO SERVICE TO AND FROM FORT MYERS...TAMPA... ORLANDO...AND ATLANTA. PASSENGERS WITH RESERVATIONS SHOULD CHECK WITH AIRLINES PRIOR TO GOING TO AIRPORTS. GREYHOUND KEYS SHUTTLE SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL MEET THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF BUS SERVICE BETWEEN MIAMI AND THE KEYS NEEDS TO BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...WITH BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 330 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTNT32 KNHC 251642 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST ...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 251721 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 130 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 1 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...ABOUT 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE WATCH AREA. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THESE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STEADIER RAINS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 20 TO 35 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG WITH AND AFTER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE FREQUENT GUSTS INTO SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES...INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. SHOULD KATRINA SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER EMERGING IN THE GULF...A STORM SURGE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SUNCOAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY FRIDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACH GALE FORCE. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS KATRINA REDEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 330 AND 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ RKR/RD ** WTUS82 KTBW 251721 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 130 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 1 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...ABOUT 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 6 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE WATCH AREA. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THESE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STEADIER RAINS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 20 TO 35 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG WITH AND AFTER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE FREQUENT GUSTS INTO SATURDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES...INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. SHOULD KATRINA SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER EMERGING IN THE GULF...A STORM SURGE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SUNCOAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY FRIDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACH GALE FORCE. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS KATRINA REDEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 330 AND 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ RKR/RD ** WTCA42 TJSJ 251730 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DE LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY... INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA...BIMINI...Y LAS ISLAS BERRY EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO PARA EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. POSIBLEMENTE SE DESCONTINUARA EL AVISO MAS TARDE HOY O DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE-CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT Y PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL EXTREMO OESTE DEL PUENTE SEVEN MILE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLORIDA CITY. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HASTA ENGLEWOOD...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 PM EDT...1700Z...REPORTES DESDE RADARES DOPPLER DE NOAA Y UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA INDICARON QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.5 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEBE ESTAR CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 65 MPH... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY Y ESTA NOCHE...Y KATRINA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN LA FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS...TAMBIEN PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREA CON VIENTO HACIA TIERRA EN LAS BAHAMAS. LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN GRADUALMENTE EN LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA...SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA UN EVENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE 15 PULGADAS. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM EDT...26.2 NORTE...79.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 3 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 251741 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 119.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2005 23.7N 119.8W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2005 24.4N 121.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 25.3N 122.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 25.1N 124.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 16.3N 105.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2005 16.3N 105.3W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2005 17.2N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2005 17.1N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2005 17.1N 110.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 17.2N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 79.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2005 26.2N 79.0W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2005 26.1N 80.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 25.3N 82.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2005 24.2N 83.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 24.0N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 24.4N 86.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 25.3N 87.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 26.3N 88.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2005 27.9N 89.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 30.4N 88.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 33.1N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 35.0N 84.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 31.08.2005 37.3N 81.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251741 ** WTNT52 KNHC 251748 *** TCEAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z... THE CENTER OF SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN MIAMI TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST... OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$