** WTCA42 TJSJ 250600 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUA DIRIGIENDOSE AL OESTE HACIA EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...AVISOS DE HURACAN EN EFECTO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASRA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT Y PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTIMADA POR EL RADAR DE MIAMI ESTA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.4 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y COMO A 110 MILLAS...175 KM...AL ESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. KATRINA AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER HASTA EL RESTO DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE ESTA NOCHE Y AL CENTRO EN LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA EL JUEVES Y EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN EL JUEVES ANTES DE LLEGAR AL SURESTE DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO QUE ESTABA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR A KATRINA HA TENIDO QUE ABORTAR DEBIDO A ALGUNOS PROBLEMAS DE COMPUTADORA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS EN NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...26.1 NORTE...78.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 250623 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-250930- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS COMMUNITY OF OCEAN REEF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB...OR 29.53 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT PUBLIC SCHOOLS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN TODAY...HOWEVER...THIS MAY CHANGE...AND OFFICIALS MAY DECIDE TO SEND CHILDREN HOME EARLY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE TODAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM TODAY AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY. SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS TODAY...BECOMING MORE HAZARDOUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 33.4N 137.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 37.4N 141.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 40.4N 146.8E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 250600 *** WARNING 250600. WARNING VALID 260600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 33.4N 137.7E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 35.1N 139.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 36.7N 141.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 39.9N 148.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 43.6N 153.1E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 250600UTC 33.4N 137.7E GOOD MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM EAST 130NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260600UTC 36.7N 141.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 270600UTC 39.9N 148.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 280600UTC 43.6N 153.1E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 43.3N 163.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR NE 55KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 250600UTC 43.4N 163.1E FAIR MOVE NE 30KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260600UTC 47.5N 167.4E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 250600 *** WARNING 250600. WARNING VALID 260600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 43.4N 163.1E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 47.5N 167.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 250600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 250600UTC 33.4N 137.7E MOVEMENT NNE 9KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 260600UTC 37.0N 140.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 270600UTC 40.4N 147.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 280600UTC 44.0N 152.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HA S BECOME WARMER TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 5.REMARKS THIS IS FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512).= ** WTIN20 DEMS 250650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA NORTH AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPN31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 137.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 137.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.1N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.8N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 38.5N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.5N 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 45.5N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 138.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 250830 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...CENTER OF KATRINA PASSING SOUTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN FLORIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY... AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH AND A GUST TO 40 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 250831 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.3N 80.4W 50 1 X X 51 MARCO ISLAND FL 26 2 X 1 29 26.3N 81.4W 33 1 X X 34 FT MYERS FL 25 3 X 1 29 26.5N 82.5W 13 8 2 1 24 VENICE FL 12 9 2 1 24 MUHA 230N 824W X 2 1 2 5 TAMPA FL 7 10 3 2 22 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X 7 6 5 18 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 ST MARKS FL X X 3 10 13 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 2 3 APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 10 13 MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 10 11 MARATHON FL 16 2 X 1 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 8 8 MIAMI FL 44 X X X 44 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL 64 X X X 64 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5 FT PIERCE FL 46 X X X 46 BURAS LA X X X 6 6 COCOA BEACH FL 30 X 1 X 31 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL 10 7 2 2 21 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X 4 5 5 14 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 9 14 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 6 8 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 10 11 CHARLESTON SC X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 8 8 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4 KEY WEST FL 9 5 1 1 16 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 250832 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0900Z THU AUG 25 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 78.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 78.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.3N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 33.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 78.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 250834 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0900Z THU AUG 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 119.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 119.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.8N 122.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.3N 124.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.7N 126.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.0N 131.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 250835 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. FORTUNATELY...A TIMELY 0543Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS PROVED TO BE BENEFICIAL IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DROP...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING TREND...WITH DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 23.3N 119.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 120.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 24.8N 122.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1800Z 25.3N 124.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0600Z 25.7N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z 26.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 250836 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-087-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-856-876-251500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050825T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...MLB... ** WTPN31 PGTW 250900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 137.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 137.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.1N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 250900 RRB *** 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.8N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 38.5N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.5N 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT ** WTPN31 PGTW 250900 RRC *** BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 45.5N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 138.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 137.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 137.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.1N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.8N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 38.5N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.5N 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 45.5N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 138.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.// ** WTCA42 TJSJ 250845 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE KATRINA PASANDO AL SUR DE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...VIGILANCIA NUEVA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. A LAS 5 AM EDT...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA OESTE DESDE LA CIUDAD DE FLORIDA HASTA ENGLEWOOD...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA.PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASRA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT Y PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTIMADA POR EL RADAR DE MIAMI ESTA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.7 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS...35 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y COMO A 90 MILLAS...145 KM...AL ESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER HASTA EL RESTO DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE ESTA NOCHE Y AL CENTRO EN LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA HOY...Y CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE O EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN EL JUEVES ANTES DE LLEGAR AL SURESTE DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA ESTACION AAUTOMATIZADA EN E LPUEBLO DE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPOROT RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOTENIDOS DE 36 MPH Y UNA RAFAGA DE 40 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DE EL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS DE LLUVIA AL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...26.2 NORTE...78.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 250902 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 KATRINA IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. HOWEVER...THE RADAR APPEARANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND NO EVIDENCE OF THE EYE STRUCTURE SEEN AROUND 00Z. RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT AN INNER WIND CORE IS PRESENT...WHICH MAY BE THE SAME FEATURE SEEN IN THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 45 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7. KATRINA REMAINS SOUTH OF A COMPLEX WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE HAS ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKNESS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FLOW TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD OF LANDFALLS IN FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS TO NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT KATARINA WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOP OF MODEL GUIDANCE. KATRINA HAS BEEN BATTLING DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLE NORTHERLY SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT. SOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...WHICH WOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE COLD TOPS AND THE INNER WIND CORE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KATRINA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. KATRINA SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE RE-INTENSIFY UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 26.2N 78.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 26.2N 79.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 26.3N 80.4W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.4W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.5N 84.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 250902 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-251230- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ABOUT 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE STORM OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB...OR 29.53 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN TODAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE SOMETIME TODAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...WITH NEARSHORE AND BAY WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KEYW 250906 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-251230- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...AS WELL AS FROM FLORIDA CITY WEST TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ABOUT 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB...OR 29.53 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN TODAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE SOMETIME TODAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...WITH NEARSHORE AND BAY WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KMFL 250935 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-251600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 535 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE.. TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST STORM TIDE INFORMATION DETAILED AND UPDATED WIND INFORMATION DETAILED AND UPDATED PRECAUTIONS UPDATED SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INFORMATION EXPANDED AND UPDATED ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH... WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AT 8 AM EDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES... AND WILL CLOSE EARLY TODAY AND BE CLOSED FRIDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY. PALM BEACH COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ISSUED AN EVACUATION ORDER FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND MOBILE HOMES SOUTH OF LANTANA ROAD. SHELTERS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL OPEN AT 1 PM TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...PERSONS LIVING EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY OR IN MOBILE HOMES WERE URGED TO EVACUATE...AND SOME SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 2 PM. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION ANY ACTION TO SECURE BOATS FROM WIND AND RAIN...REMEMBERING TO ALLOW EXTRA LINE FOR THE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL STORM TIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND TIMING...THE COASTLINE FROM FORT LAUDERDALE NORTH TO WEST PALM BEACH INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND BEACHES CAN EXPECT THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MOST LIKELY NEAR THE HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM FRIDAY. SOME ROADS MAY BE UNDERWATER DUE TO STORM TIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE COULD BE FROM 17 TO 18 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLY FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTH TO MIAMI...BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER THAN 73 MPH...NEAR THE CENTER JUST BEFORE LANDFALL TONIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND CAN POSSIBLY DOWN POWER LINES AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGE FROM 57 TO 66 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST RANGE ARE ABOUT 50 PERCENT...AND THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST ARE ONLY ABOUT 4 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... ALL MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS TO SECURE BOATS AND OTHER MARINE CRAFT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 31 MPH GUSTING TO 39 MPH REPORTED AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AT 4 AM EDT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA OPPOSES THE NORTH FLOWING GULF STREAM. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES WILL MEAN A HIGHER CHANCE OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST...MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION ACTIONS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH SQUALLS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING LASTING ALL DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS TODAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTPN31 PHNC 251000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 23.1N 119.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 119.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 24.0N 120.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.8N 122.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.3N 124.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 25.7N 126.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 26.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.// ** WTUS82 KTBW 250944 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 540 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HEADED SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 5 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF FORT MYERS. KATRINA WAS GENERALLY MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT IN THE WATCH AREA. FOR TODAY...ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY OUTER FRINGES OF KATRINA...AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STEADIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY AT SUNSET...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF KATRINA'S INTENSITY AFTER LANDFALL...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT YET BEEN ISSUED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON KATRINA'S SURVIVAL AFTER LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG WITH AND AFTER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THOUGH THE PRIMARY RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF LEE COUNTY...THE STRONGER CONVERGING WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE. THIS COULD PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES...INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH. SHOULD KATRINA SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER EMERGING IN THE GULF...A STORM SURGE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SUNCOAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY FRIDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACH GALE FORCE. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS KATRINA REDEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 AM THIS MORNING. $$ BSG ** WTPN31 PHNC 251000 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 26.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 251000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 23.1N 119.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 119.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 24.0N 120.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.8N 122.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.3N 124.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 25.7N 126.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 26.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.// ** WTUS82 KMLB 250947 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 251602- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 546 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS THAT ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST THREAT SITUATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF FLORIDA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY... STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS MORNING. EVACUATIONS ...AS NECESSARY...SHOULD BE CONDUCTED ACCORDING TO THE DIRECTION OF LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR ACTION PLAN...AND STAY ON TOP OF THIS STORM THREAT SITUATION. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS FAR NORTH AS VERO BEACH. IMPORTANTLY...THE LATEST PROJECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MARTIN COUNTY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING NORTH AND INLAND INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN PASSING SQUALLS IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THESE WINDS COULD DAMAGE AWNINGS...BLOW DOWN TREES OR LARGE LIMBS CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS...REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER...THE STORM SURGE FOR MARTIN COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET... DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD. LARGE SURF... STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF KATRINA...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM...WITH A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. IF KATRINA MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IMPACTS FROM FLOODING RAINS COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER NORTHWARD TOWARD KISSIMMEE AND CAPE CANAVERAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TODAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE WELL INTO FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF TORNADOES TO IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE THREAT AREA IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ELSEWHERE...A LOW TO VERY LOW THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY TODAY AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY MID DAY 20 TO 60 MILES EAST OF JUPITER INLET...SPREADING FURTHER WEST AND NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE FORECAST IN PASSING SQUALLS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...SO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. ALSO...INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE COAST TODAY WILL RESULT IN A GREATER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION IF THIS STATEMENT...GO TO THE NWS MELBOURNE WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB. $$ DECKER ** WTJP31 RJTD 250900 *** WARNING 250900. WARNING VALID 260900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 33.9N 137.9E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 35.6N 139.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 37.2N 141.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 250900UTC 33.9N 137.9E GOOD MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM EAST 130NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260900UTC 37.2N 141.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 270600UTC 39.9N 148.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 280600UTC 43.6N 153.1E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT82 KNHC 250955 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-087-GMZ031-033-656-657-676-856-876-251500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050825T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-251500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...MLB... ** WTJP32 RJTD 250900 *** WARNING 250900. WARNING VALID 260900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 44.3N 163.9E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 28 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 48.0N 167.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 250900UTC 44.3N 163.9E FAIR MOVE NNE 28KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260900UTC 48.0N 167.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 251000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 23.1N 119.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 119.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 24.0N 120.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.8N 122.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.3N 124.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 25.7N 126.4W ** WTNT32 KNHC 251146 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 6 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 50 MPH...AND FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 251156 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT JUEVES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA ORGANIZANDOSE LENTAMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE AL OESTE HACIA EL SURESTE DE FLORIDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT Y PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS DE LA FLORIDA. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE FLORIDA CITY HASTA ENGLEWOOD...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.0 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS...45 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL ESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. KATRINA AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER HASTA EL RESTO DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE ESTA NOCHE Y AL CENTRO EN LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA HOY...Y CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE O EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO HOY Y ESTA NOCHE ANTES DE LLEGAR AL SURESTE DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN SETTLEMENT POINT DE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 43 MPH Y UNA RAFAGA DE 50 MPH...Y FREEPORT EN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TAMBINER EPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 43 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 999 MILIBARAS...29.50 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DE EL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS DE LLUVIA AL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...26.2 NORTE...79.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$