** WTCA42 TJSJ 250001 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA COMIENZA A MOVERSE MAS AL OESTE...AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO POCOS CAMBIOS EN FORTALEZA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERA EMITIDO PARA PORCIONES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA NOCHE. A LAS 8 PM...0000 EDT...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PUEDE SER REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASRA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DESDE EL PUENTE SEVEN MILES HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA SE ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.6 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS...105 KM...AL NORTE DE NASSAU...Y COMO A 165 MILLAS...270 KM...AL ESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. INFORMACION DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y EL RADAR INDICA QUE KATRINA HA COMENZADO A MOVERSE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE ESPERA EL JUEVES. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO HASTA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES...Y EN LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA OBSERVADA RECIETEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...26.0 NORTE...77.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 250019 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-250330- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR PEOPLE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS COMMUNITY OF OCEAN REEF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT PUBLIC SCHOOLS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN THURSDAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE THURSDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS MAY CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE HAZARDOUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTPN31 PHNC 242200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 023 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 117.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 117.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.9N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.9N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.8N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.4N 123.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 242200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 023 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 117.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 117.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.9N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.9N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 242200 RRB *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.8N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.4N 123.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 242200 RRB *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.8N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.4N 123.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 242200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 023 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 117.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 117.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.9N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.9N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.8N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.4N 123.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.// ** WTJP21 RJTD 250000 *** WARNING 250000. WARNING VALID 260000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 32.6N 137.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 34.5N 137.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 36.1N 139.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 39.1N 145.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 43.0N 149.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 32.6N 137.1E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 36.1N 139.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 270000UTC 39.1N 145.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 280000UTC 43.0N 149.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 250000 *** WARNING 250000. WARNING VALID 260000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 32.6N 137.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 34.5N 137.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 36.1N 139.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 39.1N 145.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 43.0N 149.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 32.6N 137.1E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM EAST 140NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 36.1N 139.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 270000UTC 39.1N 145.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 280000UTC 43.0N 149.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC 00HR 32.6N 137.0E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 37.0N 140.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 40.2N 144.5E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC 00HR 40.8N 160.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR NE 45KM/H= ** WTJP22 RJTD 250000 *** WARNING 250000. WARNING VALID 260000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 40.8N 160.4E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 28 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 46.5N 165.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 40.8N 160.4E FAIR MOVE ENE 28KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 46.5N 165.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 250000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME LOW 0512 GUCHOL ANALYSIS POSITION 250000UTC 40.8N 160.4E MOVEMENT ENE 29KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 251200UTC 44.3N 164.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HA S BECOME WARMER TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 32.6N 137.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 137.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.2N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 35.7N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.4N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 39.3N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 43.8N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 137.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 250237 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KATRINA IN A FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAN BAHAMA ISLAND JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 250237 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0300Z THU AUG 25 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 78.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 78.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 78.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 250238 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005 HILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE MID LEVEL CENTER CONSISTS OF RAGGED AREAS OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WHICH HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS DECOUPLED FROM THE MEAGER CONVECTION...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HILARY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 315/8. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS AND GUNA CONSENSUS. FORECASTER COBB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 23.0N 118.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 23.7N 119.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 24.6N 121.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1200Z 25.5N 122.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0000Z 26.0N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 250238 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z THU AUG 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 118.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 118.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.7N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.6N 121.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 122.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER COBB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 250243 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.0N 79.5W 55 X X X 55 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 26.0N 80.5W 30 1 X 1 32 KEY WEST FL 4 9 2 2 17 26.3N 81.5W 14 9 1 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL 11 10 1 2 24 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 1 2 FT MYERS FL 8 11 3 1 23 MUSN 216N 826W X X 1 1 2 VENICE FL 1 12 5 3 21 MUHA 230N 824W X 3 2 2 7 TAMPA FL 1 8 6 4 19 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 7 8 16 MYAK 241N 776W 1 X 1 2 4 ST MARKS FL X X 1 10 11 MYNN 251N 775W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 10 11 MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 9 9 MARATHON FL 11 6 1 1 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6 MIAMI FL 32 1 X X 33 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4 FT PIERCE FL 28 1 1 X 30 BURAS LA X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL 15 6 1 2 24 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3 DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 8 5 4 19 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 11 13 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 8 13 GULF 29N 87W X X X 9 9 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 250243 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 THE 2300Z RECONNAISSANCE FIX AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND THE BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE KATRINA TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...BRINGS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. BEYOND THREE DAYS...WHEN KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...SUGGESTING TRACKS WHICH COVER THE COAST FROM MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KATRINA NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING TROUGH...ON A TRACK WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A BETTER RADAR PRESENTATION. LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 2300 UTC DID NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND THE PRESSURE WAS NOT DROPPING. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AND MAKES KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SINCE THERE IS LOW SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG KATRINA'S PATH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BUT KATRINA COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE IT IS FORECAST THAT KATRINA BECOMES A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.0N 78.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 78.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 26.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 29/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 250245 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z THU AUG 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 118.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 118.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.7N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.6N 121.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 122.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER COBB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 250247 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z THU AUG 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 118.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 225SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 118.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.7N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.6N 121.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 122.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER COBB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 250250 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-250300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-250300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-250300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-250300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ...MLB... ** WTNT82 KNHC 250255 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1012.050825T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-250900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-250900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1012.050825T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-250900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ...MLB... ** WTKO20 RKSL 250000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL ANALYSIS POSITION 250000UTC 40.8N 160.4E MOVEMENT ENE 29KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 251200UTC 44.3N 164.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTCA42 TJSJ 250300 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...KATRINA DIRIGIENDOSE AL OESTE AL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...AVISOS DE HURACAN EN EFECTO... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...UN AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR CERCA DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASRA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DESDE EL PUENTE SEVEN MILES HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA SE ESTIMADA POR EL RADAR DE MIAMI CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.0 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL SURESTE DE FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...AL ESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. KATRINA AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO EN LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN EL JUEVES ANTES DE LLEGAR AL SURESTE DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE OTRO AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO LLEGUE A KATRINA EN ALGUNAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. GRAND BAHAMA JUSTO REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 43 MPH...69KM/HR. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...26.0 NORTE...78.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 250312 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-250630- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR PEOPLE WHO MIGHT BE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS...BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...OR ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS COMMUNITY OF OCEAN REEF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT PUBLIC SCHOOLS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN THURSDAY...BUT IF THE STORM CHANGES TRACK THEN THE SCHOOL DAY MAY BE CURTAILED AND CHILDREN SENT HOME EARLY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE THURSDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS... BUT DOES CAUTION RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS MAY CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY. SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE HAZARDOUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 AM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ RIZZO/BROCK ** WTPN31 PHNC 250400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 118.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 118.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.7N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.6N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 25.5N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250400Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 118.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 41.0N 160.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 41.0N 160.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 45.5N 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 49.8N 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 42.1N 161.2E. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) ** WTUS82 KMLB 250345 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 251000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1145 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS THAT ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST THREAT SITUATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY... STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE DILIGENTLY ATTENDED TO OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. EVACUATIONS...AS NECESSARY...SHOULD BE CONDUCTED ACCORDING TO THE DIRECTION OF LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR ACTION PLAN...AND CHECK THE LATEST UPDATES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING FOR CHANGES TO THE THREAT SITUATION. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS FAR NORTH AS VERO BEACH. IMPORTANTLY...THE LATEST PROJECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MARTIN COUNTY THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTH AND INLAND INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN PASSING SQUALLS IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE LARGE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT... CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS...REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...AND THUS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER...THE STORM SURGE FOR MARTIN COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET... DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD. LARGE SURF... STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF KATRINA...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CORE OF THE STORM...WITH A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS MARTIN... SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. IF KATRINA MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IMPACTS FROM FLOODING RAINS COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER NORTHWARD TOWARD KISSIMMEE AND CAPE CANAVERAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE WELL INTO FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF TORNADOES TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE MODERATE THREAT AREA IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ELSEWHERE...A LOW TO VERY LOW THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY THURSDAY AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE MID DAY THURSDAY 20 TO 60 MILES EAST OF JUPITER INLET...SPREADING FURTHER WEST AND NORTH INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE FORECAST IN PASSING SQUALLS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR OVER THE WATERS FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...SO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. ALSO...INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE COAST RESULT IN A GREATER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM ...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DWS ** WTJP31 RJTD 250300 *** WARNING 250300. WARNING VALID 260300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 33.0N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 34.9N 138.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 36.3N 140.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 250300UTC 33.0N 137.3E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM EAST 130NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260300UTC 36.3N 140.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 270000UTC 39.1N 145.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 280000UTC 43.0N 149.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 250400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 118.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 118.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.7N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.6N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 25.5N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250400Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 118.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 41.0N 160.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 41.0N 160.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 45.5N 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 49.8N 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 42.1N 161.2E. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) ** WTUS82 KMFL 250402 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-251000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1142 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE.. UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED WIND IMPACT ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD... AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH...WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... SPECIFICALLY PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KATRINA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WARNING AREA. PERSONS ARE URGED TO INITIATE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN. MONITOR ADVICE FROM LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA OFFICIALS AND HEED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES GREATER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM TIDE FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS NEAR WHERE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL IF THE STORM REACHES HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THEN. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI IS NEAR 60 PERCENT. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS BETWEEN 8 TO 10 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES. EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PS/JL ** WTJP32 RJTD 250300 *** WARNING 250300. WARNING VALID 260300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 41.9N 161.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 28 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 45.7N 164.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 250300UTC 41.9N 161.7E FAIR MOVE NE 28KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260300UTC 45.7N 164.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 250535 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 118.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2005 22.2N 118.1W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2005 24.0N 119.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 25.5N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 26.4N 124.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 26.7N 126.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2005 26.2N 77.3W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2005 26.3N 78.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 26.8N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2005 26.8N 80.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2005 26.3N 81.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 26.2N 82.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 27.3N 82.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 28.0N 83.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 29.3N 82.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2005 31.5N 80.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 32.7N 78.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 34.6N 75.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 35.4N 73.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 17.8N 45.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2005 17.8N 45.1W WEAK 12UTC 26.08.2005 18.5N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2005 20.0N 47.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 22.1N 48.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 24.5N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 27.3N 50.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 30.2N 50.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 33.1N 50.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 35.4N 49.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 37.3N 50.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2005 39.0N 48.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250535 ** WTNT32 KNHC 250546 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...KATRINA CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE ...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ENROUTE TO KATRINA HAS HAD TO ABORT DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$