** WTUS82 KEYW 241801 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-242130- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB...OR 29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS MAY CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTNT32 KNHC 241755 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 241801 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-242130- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB...OR 29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS MAY CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTCA42 TJSJ 241811 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL KATINA SE FORTALECE SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES... ...SE ACRECIENTE LA AMENAZA DE FUERTES LLUVIAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DURANTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY. ESTOS REEMPLAZAN LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE Y CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA A LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA MEDIANOS Y ALTOS DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLORIDA CITY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY.UN AVISO DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LAS BAHAMAS NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA SE ESTABA REFORMANDO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.0 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS...50 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE NASSAU...Y COMO A 200 MILLAS...320 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE U OESTE NOROESTE CON UNA VELOCIDAD LEVEMENTE MENOR MAS TARDE DURANTE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. ESTE MOVIOMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO HASTA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES HOY Y AL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE O JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON ESTIMADO EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA OBSERVADA RECIETEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO FUE DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...25.2 NORTE...77.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT32 KNHC 241755 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 241812 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL KATINA SE FORTALECE SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES... ...SE ACRECIENTA LA AMENAZA DE FUERTES LLUVIAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DURANTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY. ESTOS REEMPLAZAN LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE Y CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA A LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA MEDIANOS Y ALTOS DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLORIDA CITY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY.UN AVISO DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LAS BAHAMAS NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA SE ESTABA REFORMANDO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.0 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS...50 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE NASSAU...Y COMO A 200 MILLAS...320 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE U OESTE NOROESTE CON UNA VELOCIDAD LEVEMENTE MENOR MAS TARDE DURANTE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. ESTE MOVIOMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO HASTA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES HOY Y AL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE O JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON ESTIMADO EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA OBSERVADA RECIETEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO FUE DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...25.2 NORTE...77.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 241800 UTC 00HR 39.2N 157.8E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 45KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 241800 *** WARNING 241800. WARNING VALID 251800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 31.5N 137.0E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.9N 137.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 36.1N 139.3E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 39.0N 142.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 42.5N 147.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 241800UTC 31.5N 137.0E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 251800UTC 36.1N 139.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 261800UTC 39.0N 142.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 271800UTC 42.5N 147.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 241800 UTC 00HR 31.3N 137.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 35.2N 138.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 38.1N 143.0E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 40.6N 148.7E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 241800 *** WARNING 241800. WARNING VALID 251800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 39.4N 157.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 45.6N 164.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 241800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 241800UTC 39.4N 157.2E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 251800UTC 45.6N 164.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 31.5N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.2N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 34.9N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.3N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.8N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 41.2N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 44.2N 155.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 137.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 242025 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 2100Z WED AUG 24 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY...AND FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 77.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 77.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.9N 77.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.1N 78.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.2N 79.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.4N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 28.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 77.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 242026 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005 THE COLD WATER IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON HILARY. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS. NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE CONVECTION...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HILARY IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 330/7. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFDL CAPTURED THIS MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND I HAVE EDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS HILARY WEAKENS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HILARY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 22.2N 117.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.9N 118.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.9N 119.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 24.8N 121.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/1800Z 25.4N 123.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 242026 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 2100Z WED AUG 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 117.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 300SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 117.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.9N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.9N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.8N 121.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.4N 123.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 242026 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.1N 78.8W 47 X X X 47 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 26.2N 79.7W 31 1 X X 32 KEY WEST FL 2 4 3 4 13 26.3N 80.7W 19 3 1 1 24 MARCO ISLAND FL 8 7 2 3 20 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL 7 8 3 3 21 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 VENICE FL 2 10 4 4 20 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 5 6 TAMPA FL 1 9 5 4 19 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X 3 6 7 16 MYEG 235N 758W X X 1 1 2 ST MARKS FL X X 3 9 12 MYAK 241N 776W 5 1 1 2 9 APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 9 12 MYNN 251N 775W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 8 10 MYGF 266N 787W 48 X X X 48 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6 MARATHON FL 5 4 3 3 15 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4 MIAMI FL 20 2 1 1 24 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 W PALM BEACH FL 26 2 X 1 29 BURAS LA X X X 4 4 FT PIERCE FL 19 3 2 1 25 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL 9 7 3 3 22 GULF 29N 85W X 1 4 8 13 DAYTONA BEACH FL 1 7 5 4 17 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 8 9 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 7 12 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 242027 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-250300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-250300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-250300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-250300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ...MLB... ** WTNT82 KNHC 242033 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-250300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC009-AMZ550-570-250300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W TITUSVILLE-FL 28.64N 80.63W $$ AMZ610-250300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050824T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-250300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ...MLB... ** WTNT32 KNHC 242034 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY...AND FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 39.3N 157.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 39.3N 157.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.9N 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 47.1N 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 40.2N 158.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 kNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA42 TJSJ 242058 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES... ...NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS PARA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERA EMITIDO PARA PORCIONES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA NOCHE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE Y CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PUEDE SER REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. A LAS 5 PM EDT...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASRA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DESDE EL PUENTE SEVEN MILES HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TITUSVILLE...INCLUYENDO TODAS LAS ISLAS MERRITT. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KATRINA SE ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.2 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...70 KM...AL NORTE NORESTE DE NASSAU...Y COMO A 185 MILLAS...300 KM...AL ESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE U OESTE CON UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LEVEMENTE MENOR MAS TARDE SE ESPERA DURANTE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. ESTE MOVIOMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO HASTA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES...Y EN LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON ESTIMADO EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA OBSERVADA RECIETEMENTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO FUE DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...25.6 NORTE...77.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTNT42 KNHC 242100 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI... AND THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE KATRINA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED AND REMAINS QUITE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF RECON WIND...38 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...AND PRESSURE DATA...1002 MB OR ROUGHLY 43 KT...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE TO SOUTHWEST OF THE 1949Z RECON POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ZERO-ISODOP PATTERN NOTED IN THE NOAA/NWS MIAMI DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE CENTER POSITION. I HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE POSITIONS FROM RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST RECON POSITION CAN BE SEEN AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THAT VORTEX MAY END UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT THE CENTER DOES END UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION ...THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA TO KEEP BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD...WHICH ULTIMATELY FORCES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN 36-48 HOURS...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE AND WHEN KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE GFDN IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO NEW ORLEANS...WHEREAS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS AND TAKE KATRINA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO 111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING. OWING TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 25.6N 77.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 25.9N 77.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 26.1N 78.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 79.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 80.7W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.4N 83.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 85.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W 65 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 242110 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-250400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 414 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD... PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 PM...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FORWARD SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KATRINA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH...74 MPH OR GREATER...IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. PERSONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT NEED EXTRA TIME FOR PREPARATIONS SUCH AS MARINERS...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED. LISTEN FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WHO WILL BE TAKING ACTIONS RELATED TO EVACUATION AND SHELTERING ON THURSDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES GREATER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM TIDE FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES ASHORE. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THE PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 55 TO 60 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE...AROUND 7 PERCENT...OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES. AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KEYW 242125 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-250030- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR PEOPLE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH THROUGH MERRITT ISLAND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 205 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD WEST NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS MAY CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE HAZARDOUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTUS82 KMLB 242133 *** HLSMLB AMZ555-575-FLZ047-053-054-058-059-064-147-250400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 520 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...ST LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE AND KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST ADVISORIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF KATRINA...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE STORM... PRIMARILY ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES... WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. IF THE STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IMPACTS FROM FLOODING RAINS COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER NORTHWARD TOWARD ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE WELL INTO FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE LATEST PROJECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS...REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE EAST COAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3 TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. LARGE SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE COAST RESULT IN A GREATER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SPRATT/SHARP ** WTJP31 RJTD 242100 *** WARNING 242100. WARNING VALID 252100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 32.1N 137.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 34.1N 137.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 36.3N 139.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 242100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 242100UTC 32.1N 137.1E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 252100UTC 36.3N 139.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 261800UTC 39.0N 142.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 271800UTC 42.5N 147.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 242100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 242100UTC 40.0N 158.9E FAIR MOVE NE 26KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 252100UTC 45.7N 165.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 242100 *** WARNING 242100. WARNING VALID 252100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 40.0N 158.9E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 45.7N 165.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KEYW 242258 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-250030- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 700 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR PEOPLE PLANNING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS... BE AWARE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO VERO BEACH AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH THROUGH MERRITT ISLAND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 205 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD WEST NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS OFFICIALS SAY PUBLIC SCHOOLS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN THURSDAY. A DECISION REGARDING FRIDAY CLASSES WILL BE MADE THURSDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS...BUT CAUTIONS RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS MAY CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE HAZARDOUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEY WEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTNT32 KNHC 242338 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...KATRINA BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AT 8 PM...0000 EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NORTH OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$