** WTUS82 KEYW 241159 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-241530- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB...OR 29.73 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. VESSEL OWNERS MAY ALSO WISH TO USE TODAY TO ADD EXTRA LINES ON MOORED CRAFT BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 241202 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE ERRATICAMENTE AL NOROESTE HASTA LAS BAHAMAS...ALCANZANDO FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA Y PARA LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA VERO BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.6 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU...Y COMO A 250 MILLAS...400 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIOMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO HASTA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...PRINCIPALMENTE EN TURBONADAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICA QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ESTA JUSTO BAJO DE LA INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...76.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTSR20 WSSS 240600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT62 KNHC 241209 *** TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA... SHORTLY BEFORE 8 AM EDT...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 40 MPH ...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 241200UTC 30.6N 137.2E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 251200UTC 34.8N 138.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 261200UTC 38.1N 143.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 271200UTC 43.0N 148.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 241200 *** WARNING 241200. WARNING VALID 251200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 30.6N 137.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.6N 137.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 34.8N 138.3E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 38.1N 143.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 43.0N 148.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KMFL 241249 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-241600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 849 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...KATRINA IS BORN...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN THE METRO AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 8 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...LATER TODAY. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR A POSSIBLE EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE STORM IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOPSIDED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BEGIN THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND BE READY TO TAKE ADDITIONAL ACTION SHOULD THE WATCH BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM TIDE FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE... RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THE PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE...FROM 4 TO 5 PERCENT...OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE... SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES. AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KMLB 241250 *** HLSMLB AMZ555-575-FLZ054-058-059-064-241600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 831 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...ST LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...AND WILL BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA AT 11 AM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE AND KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST ADVISORIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FORECASTED SLOW MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE LATEST TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DECKER ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 241200 UTC 00HR 37.8N 155.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 45KM/H P+24HR 43.8N 162.5E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 241200 UTC 00HR 30.6N 137.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 34.4N 138.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 37.6N 142.2E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 40.4N 148.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTUS82 KMFL 241255 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-241600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WIND SPEEDS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 854 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...KATRINA IS BORN...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN THE METRO AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 8 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...LATER TODAY. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR A POSSIBLE EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE STORM IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOPSIDED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BEGIN THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND BE READY TO TAKE ADDITIONAL ACTION SHOULD THE WATCH BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM TIDE FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE... RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THE PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE...FROM 4 TO 5 PERCENT...OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE... SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES. AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KEYW 241258 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-241530- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 858 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB...OR 29.73 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. VESSEL OWNERS MAY ALSO WISH TO USE TODAY TO ADD EXTRA LINES ON MOORED CRAFT BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN K. KASPER ** WTJP22 RJTD 241200 *** WARNING 241200. WARNING VALID 251200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 37.9N 155.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 44.9N 164.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 47.0N 168.7E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 241200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 241200UTC 37.9N 155.2E FAIR MOVE NE 19KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 251200UTC 44.9N 164.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 24KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 261200UTC 47.0N 168.7E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 241500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 30.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.6N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 35.9N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.5N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 40.4N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 43.5N 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 137.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 241430 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005 HILARY IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION SO THAT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 4.0/4.0...I.E. 65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WITHIN 24 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING 22-23 DEG C WATERS...SO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SOON. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...IT MAY TAKE MORE TIME THAN USUAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS PREDICTION. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HILARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...A MORE WESTWARD COURSE...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWINDS...IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 21.6N 118.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 22.2N 119.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 24.1N 124.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1200Z 24.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 241430 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 1500Z WED AUG 24 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 118.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 300SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 118.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.2N 119.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.1N 124.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 132.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 241500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 37.8N 155.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 155.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.3N 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 45.6N 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 156.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 241433 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1500Z WED AUG 24 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 76.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 76.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 241433 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.9N 78.4W 49 X X X 49 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 26.0N 79.2W 34 X X X 34 KEY WEST FL 1 4 3 4 12 26.1N 80.1W 21 2 1 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL 5 7 4 3 19 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL 3 9 4 3 19 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 3 3 VENICE FL 1 8 5 4 18 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL X 7 5 5 17 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 4 5 CEDAR KEY FL X 2 5 7 14 MYSM 241N 745W X 1 1 2 4 ST MARKS FL X X 2 8 10 MYEG 235N 758W 15 X 1 X 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 8 10 MYAK 241N 776W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 8 9 MYNN 251N 775W 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6 MYGF 266N 787W 37 X X 1 38 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL 4 5 3 3 15 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4 MIAMI FL 18 3 1 1 23 BURAS LA X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL 20 3 1 1 25 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3 FT PIERCE FL 12 7 2 2 23 GULF 29N 85W X X 3 8 11 COCOA BEACH FL 4 9 4 3 20 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 7 8 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 5 6 4 15 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 4 6 10 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 241500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 37.8N 155.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 155.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.3N 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 45.6N 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 156.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 241500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 30.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 241500 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.6N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 241500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 37.8N 155.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 155.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.3N 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 45.6N 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: ** WTPN31 PGTW 241500 RRC *** OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 35.9N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.5N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 241500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 30.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.6N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 35.9N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 37.5N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 40.4N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 43.5N 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 137.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 241500 RRB *** 241500Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 156.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 241500 RRD *** 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 40.4N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 43.5N 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 137.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 241445 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 241451 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 .TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-242100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1012.050824T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1012.050824T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-242100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC011-061-085-099-111-AMZ555-575-650-670-242100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-242100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...MLB... ** WTNT42 KNHC 241501 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI... AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 241502 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-241830- TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB...OR 29.71 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING TODAY SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTNT42 KNHC 241501 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI... AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 241501 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI... AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 241511 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATINA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION SE FORTALECE HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL KATINA SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES... ...SE EMITE VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA FLORIDA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY. ESTOS REEMPLAZAN LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 35 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE Y CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA A LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA MEDIANOS Y ALTOS DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLORIDA CITY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY.UN AVISO DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LAS BAHAMAS NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.7 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE NASSAU...Y COMO A 230 MILLAS...375 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. KATRINA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE CON UNA VELOCIDAD LEVEMENTE MENOR MAS TARDE HOY. ESTE MOVIOMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO HASTA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. MAS TEMPRANO SE RECIBIERON REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICO VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. DEBIDO A SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LENTA SE ESPERA QUE KATRINA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...CON ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS POSIBLES CON CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO EN LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...24.7 NORTE...76.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTPN31 PHNC 241600 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 21.4N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.2N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.6N 122.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 24.1N 124.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 24.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 24.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 24.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.// ** WTUS82 KMLB 241534 *** HLSMLB AMZ555-575-FLZ054-058-059-064-242200- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1134 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...ST LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH. THE STORM IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE AND KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST ADVISORIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF KATRINA...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE STORM. IF THE STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE WELL INTO FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. IF THE THREAT FOR FLOODING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE LATEST PROJECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM KATRINA BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS...REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE EAST COAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. LARGE SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SPRATT ** WTUS82 KMFL 241540 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-242200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD... PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND METRO AREAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...LATER TODAY AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THURSDAY. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR A POSSIBLE EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THE WARNING AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KATRINA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM TIDE FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED. ...WIND IMPACTS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THE PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 55 TO 60 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE...AROUND 7 PERCENT...OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE... SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES. AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTJP31 RJTD 241500 *** WARNING 241500. WARNING VALID 251500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 31.2N 137.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 33.1N 137.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 35.2N 138.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 241500UTC 31.2N 137.2E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 251500UTC 35.2N 138.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 261200UTC 38.1N 143.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 271200UTC 43.0N 148.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 241600 RRA *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 21.4N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.2N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 241600 RRC *** DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 24.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 241600 RRB *** 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.6N 122.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 24.1N 124.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 24.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 24.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT ** WTPN31 PHNC 241600 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 21.4N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.2N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.6N 122.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 24.1N 124.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 24.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 24.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 24.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 241500 *** WARNING 241500. WARNING VALID 251500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 38.4N 156.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 45.4N 164.3E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 241500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 241500UTC 38.4N 156.2E FAIR MOVE NE 19KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 251500UTC 45.4N 164.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 23KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 261200UTC 47.0N 168.7E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 241720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.08.2005 HURRICANE HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 117.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2005 21.2N 117.9W STRONG 00UTC 25.08.2005 22.7N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 23.6N 121.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 24.7N 124.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 26.1N 126.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 26.3N 128.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 26.5N 130.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 76.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2005 24.5N 76.6W WEAK 00UTC 25.08.2005 25.4N 77.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 26.2N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2005 26.2N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 26.0N 82.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 27.0N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 27.9N 83.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 28.7N 83.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2005 30.2N 81.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 31.9N 79.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2005 33.0N 76.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 18.2N 44.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2005 18.2N 44.5W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2005 18.0N 45.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2005 18.8N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2005 18.0N 49.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 20.9N 49.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241720 ** WTNT32 KNHC 241755 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$