** WTCA42 TJSJ 240559 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE CERCA DE GREAT EXUMA ISLAND EN LAS BAHAMAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO A CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE... THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y NEW PROVIDENCE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA Y PARA LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA VERO BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.0 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU EN LAS BAHAMAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL MIERCOLES. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AERA ESTA EN RUTA PARA INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 CINCO PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...23.6 NORTE...76.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ FIGUEROA ** WTUS82 KEYW 240606 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-240630- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF THIS TIME...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK TODAY FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. VESSEL OWNERS MAY ALSO WISH TO USE TODAY TO ADD EXTRA LINES ON MOORED CRAFT BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KEYW 240610 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-240930- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF THIS TIME...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK TODAY FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. VESSEL OWNERS MAY ALSO WISH TO USE TODAY TO ADD EXTRA LINES ON MOORED CRAFT BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KEYW 240613 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-240930- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF THIS TIME...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK TODAY FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. VESSEL OWNERS MAY ALSO WISH TO USE TODAY TO ADD EXTRA LINES ON MOORED CRAFT BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 29.7N 136.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 33.5N 137.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 37.0N 141.0E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 39.4N 147.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 36.8N 153.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 40KM/H P+24HR 42.5N 161.5E 995HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 29.7N 137.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.8N 137.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 37.2N 141.6E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 41.7N 146.2E WITH 260 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 29.7N 137.0E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 33.8N 137.3E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 260600UTC 37.2N 141.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 270600UTC 41.7N 146.2E 260NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 36.8N 153.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 43.1N 162.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 46.0N 167.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 36.8N 153.2E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 43.1N 162.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 24KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 260600UTC 46.0N 167.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 240600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 240600UTC 29.7N 137.0E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 250600UTC 33.9N 137.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 260600UTC 37.3N 140.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 54KT 72HR POSITION 270600UTC 42.1N 145.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 240830 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0900Z WED AUG 24 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 300SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.8N 118.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.6N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.3N 121.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.8N 123.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.1N 127.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 240831 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 78.0W 50 X X X 50 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 25.9N 78.9W 31 1 X X 32 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 26.1N 80.0W 17 4 1 2 24 KEY WEST FL 1 4 3 5 13 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 3 3 MARCO ISLAND FL 2 9 4 3 18 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL 1 9 5 4 19 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 4 5 VENICE FL X 7 6 5 18 MYSM 241N 745W 22 X X X 22 TAMPA FL X 5 7 6 18 MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 6 8 15 MYAK 241N 776W 55 X X X 55 ST MARKS FL X X 2 8 10 MYNN 251N 775W 67 X X X 67 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 8 10 MYGF 266N 787W 28 1 1 X 30 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 7 8 MARATHON FL 3 6 2 4 15 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL 14 4 2 2 22 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3 W PALM BEACH FL 13 7 2 2 24 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL 5 11 3 3 22 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL 1 10 5 4 20 GULF 29N 85W X X 3 8 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 4 6 6 16 GULF 29N 87W X X X 7 7 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 3 8 11 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 240831 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1006.8 MB...29.73 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 240832 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0900Z WED AUG 24 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 76.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 76.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 76.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 240833 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005 A 0403Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE FEATURE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BAND NOW RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALSO REVEALS STABLE/DRYER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS...DEGENERATING FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.1N 117.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.8N 118.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.6N 120.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 23.3N 121.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 23.8N 123.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 27/0600Z 24.1N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 240844 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MIERCOLES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NOROESTE HASTA LAS BAHAMAS...ALCANZANDO FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO A CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE... THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y NEW PROVIDENCE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA Y PARA LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA VERO BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.4 OESTE O COMO A 95 MILLAS...150 KM...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU...Y COMO A 270 MILLAS...430 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIOMIENTO PODRIA TRAER AL CENTRO HASTA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE. LOS REPORTES DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...PRINCIPALMENTE EN TURBONADAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 CINCO PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS ...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...24.0 NORTE...76.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. UNA ADVERTENCI INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTUS82 KEYW 240845 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-241230- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 360 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB...OR 29.73 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF THIS TIME...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN TODAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT TODAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK TODAY FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. VESSEL OWNERS MAY ALSO WISH TO USE TODAY TO ADD EXTRA LINES ON MOORED CRAFT BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTPN32 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 36.7N 153.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 153.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.2N 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.4N 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 46.0N 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 153.9E. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT81 KNHC 240848 *** TCVAT1 JOSE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 .TROPICAL STORM JOSE ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTNT82 KNHC 240848 *** TCVAT2 TWELVE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-241500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-241500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...MLB... ** WTPN32 PGTW 240900 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 46.0N 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 153.9E. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 240900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 36.7N 153.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 153.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.2N 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.4N 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 36.7N 153.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 153.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.2N 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.4N 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 46.0N 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 153.9E. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 29.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.5N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.2N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.6N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 39.7N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 136.9E. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRC *** 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.6N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.5N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.2N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 29.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRD *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 39.7N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 136.9E. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRE *** HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 29.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.5N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.2N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.6N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 39.7N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 136.9E. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 29.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.5N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.2N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.6N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 39.7N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 136.9E. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRC *** 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 36.6N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.5N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.2N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 29.7N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 RRD *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 39.7N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 136.9E. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE ** WTNT42 KNHC 240857 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS... IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN 24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION. THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005. THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 117.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 117.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.8N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.6N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.3N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 23.8N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 24.1N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 24.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 24.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 30.1N 137.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 34.1N 137.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 30.1N 137.1E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 34.1N 137.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 260600UTC 37.2N 141.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 270600UTC 41.7N 146.2E 260NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 RRB *** 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.6N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.3N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 23.8N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 24.1N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 24.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 117.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 117.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.8N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 117.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 117.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.8N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.6N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.3N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 23.8N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 24.1N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 24.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 24.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 RRC *** VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 24.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 37.3N 154.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 44.2N 163.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 37.3N 154.1E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 44.2N 163.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 24KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 260600UTC 46.0N 167.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KMLB 241004 *** HLSMLB AMZ555-575-FLZ054-058-059-064-241609- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 603 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...ST LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE AND KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST ADVISORIES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE LATEST TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FORECASTED SLOW MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DECKER ** WTUS82 KMFL 241010 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-241615- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 610 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN THE METRO AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUE FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...LATER THIS MORNING. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 12 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IN THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REVISE THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND BE READY TO TAKE ANY PROPER ACTIONS IN CASE THE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAN FORECAST...THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED AS NEW FORECAST DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN MOVING ASHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED OUTCOME FOR THE BETTER OR THE WORST DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE..RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...AND THE LATEST FORECAST DATA...THE ACTUAL PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 50%. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE... SEAS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE LANDFALL AND WELL AFTER THE CENTER EXITS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. DUE TO THIS FORECASTED SLOW MOVEMENT... FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING ON SUNDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING FLOOD WATERS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ RADER/SANTOS ** WTNT32 KNHC 241154 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 400 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$