** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 240032 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 1A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MARTES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO A CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE...THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y NEW PROVIDENCE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA SECTORES DEL SUR DE FLORIDA TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.8 OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS...255 KM...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DE LAS BAHAMAS...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 3 A 5 CINCO PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...23.3 NORTE...75.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB $$ FIGUEROA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 35.7N 151.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 35KM/H P+24HR 41.0N 159.0E 995HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 28.7N 136.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 32.6N 137.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 36.4N 139.9E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 39.0N 145.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 28.7N 136.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.6N 137.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 36.3N 140.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 38.2N 143.8E WITH 260 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 28.7N 136.9E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 32.6N 137.1E 90NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 260000UTC 36.3N 140.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 270000UTC 38.2N 143.8E 260NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 35.6N 151.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 39.9N 159.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 44.0N 164.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 35.6N 151.2E FAIR MOVE NE 19KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 39.9N 159.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 260000UTC 44.0N 164.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NO RTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 240000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL ANALYSIS POSITION 240000UTC 35.6N 151.2E MOVEMENT NE 21KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 241200UTC 37.9N 155.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 24HR POSITION 250000UTC 41.0N 159.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ23 KNHC 240236 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z WED AUG 24 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 125SE 125SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 300SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.1N 117.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.9N 119.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.5N 120.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER COBB/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 240237 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005 HILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE. IN ADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY IS WRAPPING DRY STABLE AIR AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE IN THE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA AVERAGE 4.0...65 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. HILARY IS CROSSING SUB 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECASTER COBB/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 20.5N 116.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 21.1N 117.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.9N 119.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 120.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 35.7N 151.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 151.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 38.2N 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.4N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 44.9N 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 152.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-EASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.6N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.5N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 35.8N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 38.7N 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 42.0N 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 136.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 240300 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 44.9N 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 152.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-EASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN32 PGTW 240300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 35.7N 151.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 151.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 38.2N 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.4N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 35.7N 151.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 151.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 38.2N 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.4N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 44.9N 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 152.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-EASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 RRD *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 38.7N 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 42.0N 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 136.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 42 FEET. ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 RRC *** 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 35.8N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 RRE *** NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.6N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.5N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.6N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.5N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 35.8N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 38.7N 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 42.0N 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 136.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 240248 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 0300Z WED AUG 24 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.0W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.0W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.2N 76.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.1N 77.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 76.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 240248 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA EAST COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.4 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 240249 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.1N 77.7W 52 X X X 52 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 9 11 25.7N 78.5W 36 1 X X 37 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 26.1N 79.5W 18 6 1 1 26 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 3 4 KEY WEST FL 1 5 3 5 14 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 10 4 4 18 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 1 4 6 FT MYERS FL X 8 5 5 18 MYSM 241N 745W 47 X X X 47 VENICE FL X 4 7 6 17 MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X 2 7 7 16 MYAK 241N 776W 51 X X X 51 CEDAR KEY FL X X 5 9 14 MYNN 251N 775W 54 X X X 54 ST MARKS FL X X 1 8 9 MYGF 266N 787W 21 5 1 X 27 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 8 9 MARATHON FL 4 7 2 3 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7 MIAMI FL 9 9 2 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL 4 13 3 2 22 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL 1 11 5 3 20 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 9 10 COCOA BEACH FL X 7 6 6 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 7 7 15 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 240259 *** TCVAT2 GERT WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 .TROPICAL STORM GERT ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTNT42 KNHC 240300 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... PRIOR TO DEPARTING THE DEPRESSION AFTER ABOUT 2230Z... CONTINUED TO REPORT A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1007 MB... AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THIS MISSION NEVER EXCEEDED THE 39 KT OBSERVED SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE CENTER HAS BEEN NEAR GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... WHERE 1007 MB AND NEARLY CALM WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED. LACKING ANY DATA TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. HOWEVER... RECENTLY A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION... WITH SOME TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... HAS STRENGTHENED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THIS BAND COULD WRAP SUFFICIENTLY AROUND THE CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GREAT EXUMA ALSO DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS CURVED BAND OF RAINFALL BENEATH THESE CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING ERRATICALLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/6 KT... A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE A RESULT OF THE DEPRESSION LYING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SINCE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN MUCH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A SLOW MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH A WESTWARD BEND BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE... EXCEPT FOR THE GFS... GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER FORECASTING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER FLORIDA BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE SLOW TREND THIS EVENING TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT TIME... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC FOR MANY REASONS... NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS WIDELY DIFFERING MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND PERHAPS A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST... AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005. THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 23.4N 76.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.2N 76.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.1N 77.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 85.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 240304 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MARTES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL ORGANIZANDOSE GRADUALMENTE Y MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE... ...VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDA PARA SECTORES DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO A CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE... THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y NEW PROVIDENCE. UNA AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...SE EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA Y PARA LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA VERO BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.0 OESTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS...230 KM...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 CINCO PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...23.4 NORTE...76.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB $$ FIGUEROA ** WTUS82 KMFL 240305 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-241000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1105 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN THE METRO AREAS OF MIAMI- DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE... AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST MAY BE NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 12 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN MOVING ASHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THESE COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR PALM BEACH IS 45 PERCENT AND 39 PERCENT FOR MIAMI. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FORECASTED SLOW MOVEMENT...FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING ON SUNDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING FLOOD WATERS. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 116.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 116.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.9N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.9N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.5N 120.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 23.5N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 240307 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...CORRECTED TO CLARIFY CONVECTIVE BAND IN FIRST PARAGRAPH AND POTENTIAL TIMELINE OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN NEXT TO LAST PARAGRAPH... THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... PRIOR TO DEPARTING THE DEPRESSION AFTER ABOUT 2230Z... CONTINUED TO REPORT A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1007 MB... AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THIS MISSION NEVER EXCEEDED THE 39 KT OBSERVED SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE CENTER HAS BEEN NEAR GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... WHERE 1007 MB AND NEARLY CALM WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED. LACKING ANY DATA TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. HOWEVER... RECENTLY A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION... WITH SOME TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... HAS STRENGTHENED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THIS BAND COULD WRAP SUFFICIENTLY AROUND THE CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO SOON MAKE THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GREAT EXUMA ALSO DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS CURVED BAND OF RAINFALL BENEATH THESE CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING ERRATICALLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/6 KT... A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE A RESULT OF THE DEPRESSION LYING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SINCE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN MUCH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A SLOW MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH A WESTWARD BEND BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE... EXCEPT FOR THE GFS... GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER FORECASTING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER FLORIDA BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE SLOW TREND THIS EVENING TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT TIME... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC FOR MANY REASONS... NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS WIDELY DIFFERING MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST... AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005. THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 23.4N 76.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.2N 76.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.1N 77.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 85.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTNT82 KNHC 240310 *** TCVAT2 TWELVE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-240900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC087-GMZ031-052-053-072-073-240900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...MLB... ** WTNT82 KNHC 240328 *** TCVAT2 TWELVE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-240900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-240900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...MLB... ** WTUS82 KEYW 240332 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-240630- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST...OR ABOUT 300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF THIS TIME...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS NOT ISSUED ANY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...AND ALL GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE OPEN ON WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY BULLETINS FROM OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SOURCES THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. VISITORS ENJOYING FLORIDA KEYS LODGING SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR FRONT DESK WEDNESDAY FOR ANY OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH OCEAN REEF...AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS IN YARDS AND ON BALCONIES WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT IN STRONG WINDS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 8 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VESSEL OWNERS MAY ALSO WISH TO USE WEDNESDAY TO ADD EXTRA LINES ON MOORED CRAFT BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO SIGNFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TIDES MAY RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL...WITH POSSIBLE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF DOCKS AND LOW COASTAL STREETS ALONG THE BAYSIDE OF NORTH KEY LARGO AND JEWFISH CREEK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO ** WTJP31 RJTD 240300 *** WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 29.2N 136.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 33.2N 137.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 29.2N 136.8E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 33.2N 137.3E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 260000UTC 36.3N 140.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 270000UTC 38.2N 143.8E 260NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 116.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 116.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.9N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 RRB *** 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.9N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.5N 120.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 116.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 116.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.9N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.9N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.5N 120.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 23.5N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 RRC *** NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 23.5N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.// ** WTUS82 KMLB 240350 *** HLSMLB AMZ555-575-FLZ054-059-064-241000- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1149 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF MARTIN...ST LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTHWEST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE AND KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST ADVISORIES. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE LATEST TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FORECASTED SLOW MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING WATERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ GLITTO ** WTJP32 RJTD 240300 *** WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 36.4N 152.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 41.0N 160.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 36.4N 152.1E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 41.0N 160.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 260000UTC 44.0N 164.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 240531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2005 HURRICANE HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 116.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2005 20.4N 116.5W STRONG 12UTC 24.08.2005 21.1N 117.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2005 22.2N 119.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 23.6N 120.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 24.7N 122.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 25.6N 124.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 26.2N 126.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 75.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2005 23.2N 75.5W WEAK 12UTC 24.08.2005 24.6N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 25.5N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 26.1N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2005 26.1N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2005 25.5N 81.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2005 25.5N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2005 25.3N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2005 26.4N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2005 26.4N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2005 27.2N 86.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2005 27.9N 88.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240531 ** WTNT32 KNHC 240550 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE NEAR GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$