** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 27.8N 137.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 136.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 35.4N 137.0E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 39.4N 140.6E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 34.4N 149.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 39.4N 155.0E 995HPA 23M/S P+48HR 44.0N 165.0E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 34.4N 149.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 39.4N 155.0E 995HPA 23M/S P+48HR 44.0N 165.0E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 27.8N 137.0E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 31.8N 137.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 35.8N 139.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 38.0N 143.6E WITH 260 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 27.8N 137.0E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 31.8N 137.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 251800UTC 35.8N 139.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 261800UTC 38.0N 143.6E 260NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 34.4N 149.3E FAIR MOVE NE 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 38.5N 157.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 251800UTC 43.6N 163.5E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 34.4N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 38.5N 157.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 43.6N 163.5E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPZ43 KNHC 232022 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005 THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHRINKING AND CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT 70-KNOT WINDS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.2N 116.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 20.9N 117.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 21.7N 119.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 24.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 232022 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 2100Z TUE AUG 23 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 116.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 150SE 150SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 116.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.5N 129.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 134.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 232025 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 2100Z TUE AUG 23 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 75.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 232025 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.0N 77.7W 50 X X X 50 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 9 11 25.7N 78.5W 36 X X 1 37 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 26.0N 79.4W 19 6 1 1 27 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 3 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X 5 3 5 13 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 5 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X 9 4 5 18 MYSM 241N 745W 60 X X X 60 FT MYERS FL X 7 6 5 18 MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 VENICE FL X 3 7 7 17 MYAK 241N 776W 50 X X X 50 TAMPA FL X 1 7 8 16 MYNN 251N 775W 53 X X X 53 CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 10 13 MYGF 266N 787W 20 6 1 1 28 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8 MARATHON FL 2 8 2 4 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7 MIAMI FL 7 11 2 2 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL 3 14 3 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X 12 5 4 21 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 8 9 COCOA BEACH FL X 7 6 6 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 6 8 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 27.9N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.8N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.7N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.3N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.6N 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 40.3N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 44.5N 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 136.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS DUE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AND A SHARPER RECURAVATURE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS TY 11W INTERACTS WITH THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 27.9N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.8N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 RRC *** OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.3N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.7N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 27.9N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.8N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.7N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.3N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.6N 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 40.3N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 44.5N 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 136.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS DUE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AND A SHARPER RECURAVATURE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS TY 11W INTERACTS WITH THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 RRE *** 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 RRD *** --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.6N 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 40.3N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 44.5N 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 136.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS DUE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AND A SHARPER RECURAVATURE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS TY 11W INTERACTS WITH THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 27.9N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.8N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.8N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.7N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.3N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.6N 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 40.3N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 44.5N 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 136.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS DUE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AND A SHARPER RECURAVATURE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS TY 11W INTERACTS WITH THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 232038 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 232040 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 2100Z TUE AUG 23 2005 CORRECTED WARNING SECTION AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 75.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 232042 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 CORRECTED WARNING SECTION ...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND ...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 34.5N 149.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 149.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 37.0N 152.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.8N 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.9N 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 150.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.9N 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 150.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 20.0N 115.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 115.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.9N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.7N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 24.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 24.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 24.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 34.5N 149.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 149.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 37.0N 152.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.8N 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 34.5N 149.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 149.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 37.0N 152.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.8N 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.9N 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 150.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTNT42 KNHC 232108 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800 FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL. THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.2N 75.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 232108 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 12 SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS... ...SE EMITEN AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE. ESTO INCLUYE A CAT ISLAND...LAS EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE...LAS ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLAND...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND Y NEW PROVIDENCE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA SECTORES DEL SUR DE FLORIDA TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOCE SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.5 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...280 KM...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS INDICADOS POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y POR OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DE LAS BAHAMAS...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE TRES A CINCO PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA DEL CENTRO A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM CDT...23.2 NORTE...75.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT...SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ FIGUEROA ** WTJP31 RJTD 232100 *** WARNING 232100. WARNING VALID 242100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 28.3N 136.9E SOUTH OF SHIONOMISAKI MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 32.2N 136.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 28.3N 136.9E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 32.2N 136.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 251800UTC 35.8N 139.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 261800UTC 38.0N 143.6E 260NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 232100 *** WARNING 232100. WARNING VALID 242100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 35.1N 150.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 39.2N 157.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 35.1N 150.1E FAIR MOVE NE 18KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 39.2N 157.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 251800UTC 43.6N 163.5E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT32 KNHC 232359 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$