** WTIN20 DEMS 230600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 23-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND A PART OF REST OF THE BAY EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT21 KNHC 230831 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005 0900Z TUE AUG 23 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING SHOULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 97.1W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 97.1W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 98.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.1N 99.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 97.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 230831 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 DATA FROM THE RADAR AT ALVARADO MEXICO INDICATED THAT JOSE BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH AN EYE FORMING. JUST HOW STRONG THE STORM GOT BEFORE LANDFALL IS UNKNOWN...AS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE EYE STARTED TO FORM TRMM DATA SHOWED THE CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED JOSE WELL SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE LANDFALL...BOTH THE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE WEAKENED...AND JOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO IN 24-36 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8. JOSE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS JOSE OR ITS REMNANTS TRAVERSE MEXICO. THE COASTAL WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.8N 97.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 98.3W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 99.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 230832 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...JOSE WEAKENING OVER EASTERN MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING SHOULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF JOSE MOVES FATHER INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 97.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 230833 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.1N 99.8W 47 X X X 47 MMTM 222N 979W 14 X X X 14 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 66 X X X 66 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED C FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU D FROM 1AM THU TO 1AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 230834 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0900Z TUE AUG 23 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 175SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 325SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 230835 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AN EARLIER 0418Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A 30 NM RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION REVEALS THAT THE WHITE BAND HAS NOW ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. NO CHANGES TO THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRYER AIR MASS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL...WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING IN 96 HOURS...DEGENERATING FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS HILARY MOVES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.4N 114.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 115.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.6N 118.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 123.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 230839 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL JOSE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MARTES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...JOSE SE DEBILITA SOBRE EL ESTE DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE VERACRUZ HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO ROJO. ESTE AVISO PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL JOSE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 96.7 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL NOROESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO Y COMO A 85 MILLAS...135 KM AL SUR-SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE JOSE SE MUEVA MAS HACIA TIERRA HACIA LAS MONTANAS DEL ESTE DE MEXICO HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. JOSE PUDIERA DEBILITARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA MAS HACIA TIERRA. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO DE JOSE A MEDIDA QUE SU CENTRO SE MUEVA MAS HACIA TIERRA...Y EL SISTEMA SERA ENTONCES DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN AREAS ALTAS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON JOSE. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PROVOCAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM...19.8 NORTE... 96.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 26.2N 137.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 29.1N 136.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 33.0N 135.6E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 37.5N 137.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 32.4N 147.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 37.0N 152.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 43.0N 163.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 945 HPA AT 26.3N 137.6E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 29.5N 136.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.2N 137.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 35.6N 138.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 26.3N 137.6E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 29.5N 136.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 250600UTC 33.2N 137.0E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 260600UTC 35.6N 138.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 32.4N 147.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 36.7N 153.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 41.0N 161.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 32.4N 147.2E GOOD MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 36.7N 153.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 250600UTC 41.0N 161.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 230600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 230600UTC 26.3N 137.6E MOVEMENT N 9KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 240600UTC 29.7N 136.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 250600UTC 33.2N 136.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 260600UTC 36.3N 137.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NO RTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 26.1N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.0N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.1N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 37.4N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.5N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.9N 153.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 137.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 26.1N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.0N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.1N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 37.4N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.5N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.9N 153.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 137.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 26.1N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.0N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.1N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 37.4N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.5N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 43.9N 153.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 137.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 32.3N 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 147.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 34.6N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 37.0N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.3N 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 147.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 230900 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.3N 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 147.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 230900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 32.3N 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 147.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 34.6N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 37.0N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 32.3N 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 147.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 34.6N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 37.0N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 39.3N 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 147.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 230900 *** WARNING 230900. WARNING VALID 240900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 945 HPA AT 26.6N 137.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 30.2N 136.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 26.6N 137.4E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 30.2N 136.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 250600UTC 33.2N 137.0E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 260600UTC 35.6N 138.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT31 KNHC 231153 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...JOSE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AT 7 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...EAST OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF JOSE MOVES FATHER INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 97.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 230900 *** WARNING 230900. WARNING VALID 240900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 32.8N 147.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 36.8N 153.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 32.8N 147.7E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 36.8N 153.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 250600UTC 41.0N 161.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =