** WTNT31 KNHC 222359 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 10 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE JOSE MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 95.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 25.4N 137.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 27.7N 136.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 31.5N 135.4E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 36.2N 136.4E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 25.4N 137.8E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 28.0N 136.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.0N 135.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 36.0N 136.1E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 25.4N 137.8E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 28.0N 136.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 250000UTC 32.0N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 260000UTC 36.0N 136.1E 290NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 31.0N 146.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 35.6N 149.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 42.5N 160.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 31.1N 146.2E EAST OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 35.3N 150.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 38.9N 158.4E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 44.0N 165.0E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 31.1N 146.2E FAIR MOVE N 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 35.3N 150.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 250000UTC 38.9N 158.4E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 260000UTC 44.0N 165.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 230000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL ANALYSIS POSITION 230000UTC 31.4N 146.2E MOVEMENT N 13KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 240000UTC 36.1N 150.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 250000UTC 39.8N 158.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NO RTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 137.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 137.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.7N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.3N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.2N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.3N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 37.2N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 42.1N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 48.1N 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 137.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 31.1N 146.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 146.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 34.0N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 36.5N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 38.9N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.7N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 12W HAS EXHIBITED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 137.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 137.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.7N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.3N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.2N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.3N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 37.2N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 42.1N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 48.1N 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 137.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 RRC *** 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.3N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 37.2N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 RRD *** OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 42.1N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 48.1N 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 137.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 137.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 137.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.7N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.3N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.2N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 31.1N 146.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 146.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 34.0N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 36.5N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 38.9N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.7N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 12W HAS EXHIBITED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 230300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 31.1N 146.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 146.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 34.0N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 36.5N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS ** WTPN32 PGTW 230300 RRB *** --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 38.9N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.7N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 12W HAS EXHIBITED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 230235 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z TUE AUG 23 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 175SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 325SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.2N 116.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 119.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.0N 126.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.5N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER COBB/KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 230235 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005 0300Z TUE AUG 23 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 96.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 96.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.1N 98.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 96.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 230237 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM JOSE NEARING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY ONSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM... NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 230238 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.1N 98.3W 52 X X X 52 MMTM 222N 979W 14 X X X 14 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 50 X X X 50 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED C FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED D FROM 7PM WED TO 7PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 230245 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 THE WEAKENING TREND NOTED ON THE LAST ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE HURRICANE STILL LACKING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A TRACK ACROSS COOLER WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF HILARY AND THE STORM MAY BEGIN ENTRAINING SOME OF THIS AIR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH STEADIER WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME AS HILARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AS THE GFDL. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY HAS SLOWED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...295/9. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND A MUCH WEAKER HILARY SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE GIVEN THE SAME GENERAL REASONING. BOTH THE 34 KT WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE SE QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM SHIP WITH CALL SIGN MHCO7. FORECASTER COBB/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.1N 113.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.6N 115.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.2N 116.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 119.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 126.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 230254 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL JOSE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT LUNES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...PEQUENA TORMENTA TROPICAL JOSE CERCA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ...LLUVIAS FUERTES Y VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL YA ESTAN SOBRE LA COSTA... ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE VERACRUZ HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO ROJO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL JOSE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 96.2 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS...65 KM...AL NORTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO Y COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KM AL SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE JOSE CRUCE LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAYORES DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN AREAS AISLADAS ALTAS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON JOSE. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PROVOCAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM...19.8 NORTE... 96.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 230257 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB. HOWEVER... FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES IS 280/7. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND ASSUMING THIS MOTION CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED MIGHT OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL. JOSE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY... AND BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.8N 96.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 113.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 113.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.6N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.2N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.8N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 25.8N 137.7E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 28.5N 136.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 250000UTC 32.0N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 260000UTC 36.0N 136.1E 290NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 230300 *** WARNING 230300. WARNING VALID 240300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 945 HPA AT 25.8N 137.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 28.5N 136.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 113.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 113.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.6N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 RRC *** 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 113.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 113.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.6N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.2N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.8N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.2N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.8N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTJP32 RJTD 230300 *** WARNING 230300. WARNING VALID 240300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 31.8N 146.5E EAST OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 35.8N 151.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 31.8N 146.5E GOOD MOVE N 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 35.8N 151.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 250000UTC 38.9N 158.4E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 260000UTC 44.0N 165.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 230529 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.08.2005 HURRICANE HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 113.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2005 18.7N 113.3W INTENSE 12UTC 23.08.2005 19.6N 114.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 21.1N 116.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 22.0N 118.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.08.2005 22.8N 119.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 23.4N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 23.7N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 95.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2005 19.7N 95.0W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2005 20.8N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 21.3N 97.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 73.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2005 21.2N 73.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2005 22.2N 74.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 23.7N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 25.2N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 26.2N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 26.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2005 25.5N 80.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 25.6N 81.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 25.6N 83.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 26.2N 84.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2005 27.1N 85.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2005 27.8N 86.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230529 ** WTNT31 KNHC 230536 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 ...CENTER OF JOSE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...WAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AT LANDFALL... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT ALVARADO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF JOSE HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM... NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH... 14 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ALVARADO RADAR INDICATED THAT JOSE WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL MAY HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 230548 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL JOSE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT MARTES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE JOSE TOCA TIERRA EN LA COSTA DE MEXICO...ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR EN TIERRA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE VERACRUZ HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO ROJO. ESTE AVISO PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. INFORMACION DESDE EL RADAR EN ALVARADO MEXICO INDICA QUE EL CENTRO DE JOSE HA TOCADO TIERRA EN LA COSTA ESTE DE MEXICO. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL JOSE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 96.8 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL NOROESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO Y COMO A 90 MILLAS...145 KM AL SUR-SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE JOSE SE MUEVA MAS HACIA TIERRA HACIA LAS MONTANAS DEL ESTE DE MEXICO HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. JOSE PUDIERA DEBILITARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA MAS HACIA TIERRA. EL RADAR EN ALVARADO MEXICO INDICABA QUE JOSE SE ESTABA ORGANIZANDO MEJOR EN LAS HORAS PASADAS ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA...Y QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AL TOCAR TIERRA PUDIERAN HABER SIDO MAYOR DE 50 MPH. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN AREAS ALTAS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON JOSE. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PROVOCAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM...19.8 NORTE... 96.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN