** WTJP21 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 24.6N 138.2E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 26.8N 136.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 30.4N 136.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 34.8N 136.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 24.6N 138.2E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 26.8N 136.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 241800UTC 30.4N 136.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 251800UTC 34.8N 136.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 29.9N 146.0E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 33.9N 148.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 37.9N 155.8E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 42.8N 165.4E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 29.9N 146.0E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 33.9N 148.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 241800UTC 37.9N 155.8E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 251800UTC 42.8N 165.4E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPZ43 KNHC 222031 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...PARTICULARLY IN THE INNER CORE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE MEAN OF THE DVORAK T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. HILARY COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS WAS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY WAS EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS SLOWING HAS OCCURRED A LITTLE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. A TURN TO THE WEST IS SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO AND MORE OR LESS THE SAME THEREAFTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 18.7N 112.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 222032 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 2100Z MON AUG 22 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.8W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......250NE 250SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 350SE 175SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.8W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 222032 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005 2100Z MON AUG 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.9N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.1N 98.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 222033 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION VERY SHORTLY TO HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION. BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY...AND HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. HOWEVER...ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE SYSTEM HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. SHOULD THE DEPRESSION BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FORMATION OF A SEASON'S 11TH STORM ON RECORD. RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD THEN FOLLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND THE GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE BAM OUTPUT...TAKING THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WOULD BE DELAYED...WITH MORE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...IF THE SYSTEM TOOK A PATH FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.6N 95.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 96.8W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 222033 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 95.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 222034 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.1N 98.3W 45 X X X 45 MMTM 222N 979W 14 X X X 14 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 44 X X X 44 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 29.9N 146.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 146.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 32.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 35.4N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 38.4N 152.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 41.9N 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 12W HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.8N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.2N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.0N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.1N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 36.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 41.2N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 48.5N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 137.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 11W HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 222100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 29.9N 146.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 146.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 32.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 35.4N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 222100 RRB *** 240600Z --- 38.4N 152.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 41.9N 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 12W HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 29.9N 146.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 146.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 32.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 35.4N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 38.4N 152.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 41.9N 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 12W HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.2N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.0N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.8N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 RRC *** 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.1N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 36.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 41.2N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 RRD *** BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 48.5N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 137.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 11W HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.8N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.2N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.0N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.1N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 36.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 41.2N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 48.5N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 137.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 11W HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 222105 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...CORRECTED FOR POTENTIAL EARLIEST 10TH... NOT 11TH... STORM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION VERY SHORTLY TO HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION. BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY...AND HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. HOWEVER...ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE SYSTEM HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. SHOULD THE DEPRESSION BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FORMATION OF A SEASON'S 10TH STORM ON RECORD. RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD THEN FOLLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND THE GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE BAM OUTPUT...TAKING THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WOULD BE DELAYED...WITH MORE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...IF THE SYSTEM TOOK A PATH FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.6N 95.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 96.8W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 112.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 112.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.2N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.9N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.3N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.8N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.// ** WTNT61 KNHC 222127 *** TCUAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...RECONNIASSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM JOSE... SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM CDT... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM JOSE WERE NEAR 45 MPH. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY... MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT61 KNHC 222127 *** TCUAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...RECONNIASSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM JOSE... SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM CDT... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM JOSE WERE NEAR 45 MPH. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY... MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.9N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.3N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 112.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 112.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.2N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.9N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.3N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.8N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.8N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 112.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 112.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.2N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPQ20 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 24.8N 138.0E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 27.3N 136.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 241800UTC 30.4N 136.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 251800UTC 34.8N 136.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 222100 *** WARNING 222100. WARNING VALID 232100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 950 HPA AT 24.8N 138.0E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 27.3N 136.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP32 RJTD 222100 *** WARNING 222100. WARNING VALID 232100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 985 HPA AT 30.5N 146.2E SOUTHEAST OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 34.5N 149.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 30.5N 146.2E FAIR MOVE N 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 34.5N 149.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 241800UTC 37.9N 155.8E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 251800UTC 42.8N 165.4E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT21 KNHC 222211 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005 2215Z MON AUG 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 222223 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 515 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AT 515 PM CDT... 2215 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 515 PM CDT...2215Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE JOSE MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 515 PM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 222224 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 515 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 515 PM CDT...2215Z...THE CENTER OF JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.9N 97.1W 53 X X X 53 MMTM 222N 979W 4 9 X X 13 20.1N 98.1W 30 1 X X 31 MMTX 210N 974W 27 1 X X 28 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 99 X X X 99 MMSO 238N 982W X 2 X X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 222226 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005 2215Z MON AUG 22 2005 ...CORRECTED TO EXTEND TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD... AT 515 PM CDT... 2215Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 222233 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 615 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOSE. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT... SUPPORTING ALMOST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE... WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. ADDITIONALLY... THE POSITION OF THE CENTER REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT WHILE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE WIND RADII FORECAST... BASED IN PART ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA... NECESSITATES EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOWER MOTION... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2215Z 19.6N 95.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$