** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 940 HPA AT 24.0N 138.8E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 25.8N 138.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 29.1N 136.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 33.5N 136.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 24.0N 138.8E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 25.8N 138.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 241200UTC 29.1N 136.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 251200UTC 33.5N 136.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 29.0N 146.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 33.2N 146.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 38.4N 152.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 44.1N 161.8E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 24.0N 138.9E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 137.4E 945HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.2N 136.2E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 33.9N 136.6E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 940 HPA AT 24.0N 138.8E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 25.8N 138.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 29.1N 136.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 33.5N 136.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 24.0N 138.8E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 25.8N 138.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 241200UTC 29.1N 136.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 251200UTC 33.5N 136.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 29.0N 146.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 33.2N 146.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 38.4N 152.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 44.1N 161.8E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 29.1N 146.4E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.4N 147.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 38.0N 154.4E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 43.0N 165.0E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 29.1N 146.4E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 33.4N 147.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 241200UTC 38.0N 154.4E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 251200UTC 43.0N 165.0E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 23KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 24.0N 138.9E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 137.4E 945HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.2N 136.2E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 33.9N 136.6E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 940 HPA AT 24.0N 138.8E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 25.8N 138.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 29.1N 136.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 33.5N 136.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 24.0N 138.8E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 25.8N 138.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 241200UTC 29.1N 136.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 251200UTC 33.5N 136.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 29.0N 146.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 33.2N 146.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 38.4N 152.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 44.1N 161.8E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 24.0N 138.9E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 137.4E 945HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.2N 136.2E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 33.9N 136.6E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 29.1N 146.4E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.4N 147.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 38.0N 154.4E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 43.0N 165.0E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 29.1N 146.4E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 33.4N 147.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 241200UTC 38.0N 154.4E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 251200UTC 43.0N 165.0E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 23KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPZ43 KNHC 221440 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT. FOR A FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLEAR EYE BUT THE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. A MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 8Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL NEARLY ENCIRCLED BY AN OUTER RAINBAND/EYEWALL. IT IS LIKELY THAT HILARY HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE HILARY REACHES COOLER WATERS. BY 36 HOURS HILARY WILL HAVE CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND THE INEVITABLE DECAY BLENDS THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HILARY WILL SLOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DEFLECTED NORTHWARD. A GRADUAL WESTWARD BEND IS EXPECTED AFTER HILARY PASSES THIS WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HILARY HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER BASED ON SHIP REPORTS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 18.6N 112.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.3N 113.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 20.0N 115.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 20.4N 117.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 128.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 221441 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 1500Z MON AUG 22 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.1W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......300NE 250SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 350SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.1W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 113.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 115.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.0N 128.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 29.4N 146.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 146.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.1N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 38.6N 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 41.7N 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 221500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 29.4N 146.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 146.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.1N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 29.4N 146.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 146.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.1N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 38.6N 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 41.7N 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 221500 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 38.6N 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 41.7N 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 221523 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MEXICO... AT 11 AM CDT...1600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT NOON EDT...1600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOMETIME TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE NOON EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 95.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 221524 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT NOON EDT...1600Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.9N 97.6W 46 X X X 46 MMTM 222N 979W 6 X X X 6 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 33 X X X 33 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 64 X X X 64 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 221524 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005 1600Z MON AUG 22 2005 AT 11 AM CDT...1600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.0W AT 22/1600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.0W AT 22/1600Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 94.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.7N 96.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 221534 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE CORE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS STILL BROAD. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG AND THE WATER IS WARM...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE VERY LONG OVER THE WATER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...I PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION IN FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST UNTIL LANDFALL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1600Z 19.5N 95.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.7N 96.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.6W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 221500 *** WARNING 221500. WARNING VALID 231500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 940 HPA AT 24.2N 138.6E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 25.9N 138.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 221500UTC 24.2N 138.6E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 231500UTC 25.9N 138.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 241200UTC 29.1N 136.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 251200UTC 33.5N 136.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 221500 *** WARNING 221500. WARNING VALID 231500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 29.4N 146.1E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 34.0N 147.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 221500UTC 29.4N 146.1E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231500UTC 34.0N 147.1E 90NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 241200UTC 38.0N 154.4E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 251200UTC 43.0N 165.0E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 23KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT =