** WTIN20 DEMS 220612 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 22-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 28.2N 147.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 32.4N 146.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 38.4N 151.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 44.0N 161.0E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 23.7N 139.2E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 25.0N 138.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 27.7N 137.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 31.2N 136.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 23.7N 139.2E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 25.0N 138.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 240600UTC 27.7N 137.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 250600UTC 31.2N 136.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 23.7N 139.1E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 137.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.2N 136.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 33.4N 136.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 28.2N 146.9E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 32.4N 146.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 37.6N 153.2E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 42.1N 162.3E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 28.2N 146.9E FAIR MOVE N 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 32.4N 146.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 240600UTC 37.6N 153.2E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 250600UTC 42.1N 162.3E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 220600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 220600UTC 23.7N 139.1E MOVEMENT NNW 4KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230600UTC 25.4N 138.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT 48HR POSITION 240600UTC 28.4N 136.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT 72HR POSITION 250600UTC 31.9N 136.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 220600 UTC. STS WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 220831 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0900Z MON AUG 22 2005 AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELLED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 100SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 300SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 117.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 23.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 220831 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY HAS FORMED A POORLY DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORMATION HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYE...SO THAT THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT. THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16. HILARY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL FORM IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF HILARY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN 24-48 HR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO TURN HILARY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS HILARY PASSES SOUTH OF THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR HILARY TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION UNDER A RIDGE WEST OF THE WEAKNESS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A WESTWARD BEND OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE OF HILARY ARE STARTING TO COOL...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE STILL 28C-29C. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HR FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKER THAN SHIPS BY 96-120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 18.1N 110.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 20.2N 116.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.6N 117.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 120.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 126.0W 25 KT $$ ** WTPZ33 KNHC 220832 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...HILARY MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELLED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES... 680 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...110.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HILARY UNLESS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY. THE NEXT FORECAST/ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 139.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 139.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.7N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.9N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.3N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.0N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.9N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 39.5N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 46.2N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 138.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 28.1N 146.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 146.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.7N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.8N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 36.9N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 39.9N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 46.9N 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 146.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH- EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TY 11W IMPINGES ON ITS OUTFLOW LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 12W HAS INCREASED SPEED AND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY TRACK POLEWARD INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO STEADILY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 28.1N 146.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 146.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.7N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.8N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 36.9N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 39.9N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 46.9N 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 146.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH- EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TY 11W ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 RRC *** IMPINGES ON ITS OUTFLOW LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 12W HAS INCREASED SPEED AND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY TRACK POLEWARD INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO STEADILY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.9N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.3N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 139.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 139.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.7N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 RRC *** 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.0N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.9N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 RRD *** 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 39.5N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 46.2N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 138.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 139.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 139.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.7N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.9N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.3N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 29.0N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.9N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 39.5N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 46.2N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 138.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 28.1N 146.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 146.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.7N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.8N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 36.9N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 39.9N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 46.9N 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 146.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH- EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TY 11W IMPINGES ON ITS OUTFLOW LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 12W HAS INCREASED SPEED AND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY TRACK POLEWARD INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO STEADILY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 23.9N 139.0E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 25.1N 138.4E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 23.9N 139.0E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 25.1N 138.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 240600UTC 27.7N 137.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 250600UTC 31.2N 136.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.9N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.7N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.2N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.6N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.5N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 110.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 RRD *** NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 110.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.6N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.5N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.9N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.7N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.2N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.9N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.7N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.2N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.6N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.5N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 110.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 28.8N 146.6E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 32.8N 146.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 28.8N 146.6E FAIR MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 32.8N 146.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 240600UTC 37.6N 153.2E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 250600UTC 42.1N 162.3E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT =