** WTSR20 WSSS 211800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 220019 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 ...OUTER BANDS OF HILARY MOVING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 485 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MANZANILLO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR. CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE ON MONDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...108.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC 00HR 26.9N 147.1E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 360KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 30.8N 145.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 36.6N 147.8E 988HPA 25M/S P+72HR 43.0N 155.0E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC 00HR 23.3N 139.4E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 25.4N 137.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 28.7N 136.3E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 32.6N 136.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 220000UTC 23.4N 139.3E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 230000UTC 24.6N 138.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 240000UTC 27.3N 137.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 250000UTC 30.7N 136.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 220000 *** WARNING 220000. WARNING VALID 230000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 23.4N 139.3E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 24.6N 138.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 27.3N 137.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 30.7N 136.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP22 RJTD 220000 *** WARNING 220000. WARNING VALID 230000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 980 HPA AT 26.9N 147.0E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 31.3N 145.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 37.2N 149.7E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 43.4N 160.2E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 220000UTC 26.9N 147.0E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230000UTC 31.3N 145.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 240000UTC 37.2N 149.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 250000UTC 43.4N 160.2E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 220000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL ANALYSIS POSITION 220000UTC 26.9N 147.0E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230000UTC 31.6N 145.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 240000UTC 37.5N 149.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 250000UTC 42.2N 156.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 220000 UTC. STS WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 139.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 139.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.1N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.7N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.4N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.0N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 39.3N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 44.9N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 139.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.0N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 29.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.4N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 40.9N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 147.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 220300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.0N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 29.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 220300 RRB *** 230000Z --- 32.4N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 40.9N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 147.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 139.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 139.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.1N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.0N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 29.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.4N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 40.9N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 147.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.7N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 139.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 139.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.1N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.7N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.4N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.0N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 39.3N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 44.9N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 139.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 RRC *** 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 28.4N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.0N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 RRD *** 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 39.3N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 44.9N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 139.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 220246 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z MON AUG 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.1W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 100SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.1W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 110.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 113.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 116.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ33 KNHC 220248 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 ...HILARY STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 525 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES... 445 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...17.7 N...109.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 220300 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 THE BANDING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN A LITTLE THIN THIS AFTERNOON... BUT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED THIS EVENING WITHIN A 100 NM DIAMETER CDO. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME UP... WITH 75 KT AND 978 MB FROM CIMSS AT 2130Z... WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO T5.0... WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 90 KT. HILARY IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 29C AND WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... BUT NOT LESS THAN 26C UNTIL BEYOND 36 HOURS... ALL WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR HILARY TO SOON REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS... WITH A MORE ACCELERATED DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/16... AVERAGING OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THROUGH SOME SMALL WOBBLES. ALL OF THE MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH... THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WILL ONLY SERVE TO SLOW HILARY DOWN AND NOT CAUSE IT TO RECURVE. HOWEVER... THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST HILARY WILL MOVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... AND IT ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. THIS FORECAST TAKES A MUCH WEAKENED HILARY WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 17.7N 109.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 18.6N 110.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 19.5N 113.1W 100 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 20.6N 116.3W 85 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 23.5N 139.2E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 24.7N 138.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 23.5N 139.2E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 24.7N 138.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 240000UTC 27.3N 137.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 250000UTC 30.7N 136.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 27.5N 147.1E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 32.5N 145.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 27.5N 147.1E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 32.5N 145.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 240000UTC 37.2N 149.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 250000UTC 43.4N 160.2E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 27.5N 147.1E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 32.5N 145.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 27.5N 147.1E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 32.5N 145.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 240000UTC 37.2N 149.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 250000UTC 43.4N 160.2E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 980 HPA AT 27.5N 147.1E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 32.5N 145.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 27.5N 147.1E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 32.5N 145.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 240000UTC 37.2N 149.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 250000UTC 43.4N 160.2E 270NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPZ33 KNHC 220546 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 ...OUTER BANDS OF HILARY STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... 590 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 365 MILES... 590 KM... SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES... 445 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...110.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT...MONDAY. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 220548 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.08.2005 HURRICANE HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 108.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2005 17.2N 108.1W STRONG 12UTC 22.08.2005 18.1N 110.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 19.3N 114.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 20.2N 115.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 20.3N 117.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 20.2N 118.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2005 20.3N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 20.9N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 21.8N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 22.3N 123.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 16.1N 101.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2005 16.1N 101.0W WEAK 12UTC 25.08.2005 16.4N 102.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 17.2N 104.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 17.9N 106.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 18.8N 108.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2005 19.4N 111.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2005 20.0N 113.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.1N 28.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2005 14.1N 28.0W WEAK 12UTC 22.08.2005 14.9N 30.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 15.2N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 16.1N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 16.1N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 16.9N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 16.9N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 17.9N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 18.8N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2005 19.6N 47.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220548