** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 22.9N 139.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 138.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.5N 136.2E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 31.3N 136.6E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 26.0N 147.6E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 360KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 29.8N 145.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 35.2N 145.4E 988HPA 25M/S P+72HR 40.5N 149.0E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 22.9N 139.8E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 23.7N 139.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 26.0N 138.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 29.6N 136.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 22.9N 139.8E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 23.7N 139.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 231800UTC 26.0N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 241800UTC 29.6N 136.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 992 HPA AT 26.3N 147.5E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 29.8N 145.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 35.6N 147.4E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 41.1N 156.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 26.3N 147.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 29.8N 145.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 231800UTC 35.6N 147.4E 170NM 70% MOVE N 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 241800UTC 41.1N 156.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 22KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 139.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 139.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.9N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.8N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.1N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.6N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.8N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 37.5N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 43.3N 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 139.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.8N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.1N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 139.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 139.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.9N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 RRC *** 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.6N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.8N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 139.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 139.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.9N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.8N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.1N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.6N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.8N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 37.5N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 43.3N 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 139.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRMED THAT HILARY INDEED HAD MOVED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ALONG A RAPID CYCLONICALLY CURVED ARC THAT ALREADY APPEARS TO BE BENDING BACK TO THE LEFT AND SLOWING. THE OVERALL MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS IS 295/13. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WHEN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AS TO HOW HILARY WILL RESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TURNING HILARY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN HILARY AND THE TROUGH...AND INDEED TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 96 HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. SAVE FOR A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ON THE UKMET/NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL BALL OF -80C CONVECTION...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS NEAR THE CORE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND ADDITIONAL BANDS FARTHER OUT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOT CLOSE...90 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS ABOUT 80 KT...T4.7...WHILE AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO RAISE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY A LITTLE...TO 75 KT. ONLY MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND HILARY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SHIPS APPEARS TO DECAY THE CYCLONE TOO SLOWLY OVER THE COLD WATER...WHERE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.6N 107.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W 90 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 212036 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 2100Z SUN AUG 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.8W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 200SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.8W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 35SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 26.2N 147.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 147.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 28.2N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.7N 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.8N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 37.1N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 42.4N 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 147.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 RRB *** 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.8N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 37.1N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 42.4N 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 147.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 RRC *** 211800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 26.2N 147.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 147.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 28.2N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.7N 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 26.2N 147.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 147.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 28.2N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.7N 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.8N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 37.1N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 42.4N 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 147.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 107.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 107.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.4N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.4N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.3N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 107.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 107.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.4N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.4N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.3N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 RRD *** NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 107.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 107.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.4N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.4N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.3N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 212100 *** WARNING 212100. WARNING VALID 222100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 23.2N 139.6E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 23.9N 139.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 23.2N 139.6E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 23.9N 139.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 231800UTC 26.0N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 241800UTC 29.6N 136.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 212100 *** WARNING 212100. WARNING VALID 222100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 992 HPA AT 26.6N 147.2E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 30.9N 144.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 26.6N 147.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 30.9N 144.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 231800UTC 35.6N 147.4E 170NM 70% MOVE N 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 241800UTC 41.1N 156.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 22KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPZ33 KNHC 212234 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 ...HILARY PRODUCES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN OUTER BANDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... AT 330 PM PDT... 2230 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 330 PM PDT...2230Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. MANZANILLO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 430 PM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...108.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 212234 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 2230Z SUN AUG 21 2005 AT 330 PM PDT... 2230 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.2W AT 21/2230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.2W AT 21/2230Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 212240 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING TRANSMITTED TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND TO EXPAND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII. REPORTS FROM MANZANILLO MEXICO WITHIN THE PAST HOUR INDICATE SUSTAINED 35 KT WINDS ARE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN AN OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE HILARY... AND TWO SHIPS JUST OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST 90 MINUTES. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2230Z 16.9N 108.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W 90 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W 30 KT $$