** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 211200 *** WARNING 211200. WARNING VALID 221200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 22.6N 140.1E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 23.3N 139.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 25.6N 138.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 29.5N 138.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 22.6N 140.1E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 23.3N 139.6E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 231200UTC 25.6N 138.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 241200UTC 29.5N 138.1E 220NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 22.7N 140.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.3N 138.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.3N 136.6E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.6N 135.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 25.4N 148.0E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 360KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 28.7N 146.5E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 32.2N 144.8E 988HPA 25M/S P+72HR 35.9N 145.8E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 22.7N 140.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.3N 138.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.3N 136.6E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.6N 135.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 211200 *** WARNING 211200. WARNING VALID 221200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 998 HPA AT 25.5N 147.9E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 29.0N 145.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.4N 145.3E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 39.3N 150.9E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 25.5N 147.9E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 29.0N 145.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 231200UTC 33.4N 145.3E 170NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 241200UTC 39.3N 150.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 22.7N 140.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.3N 138.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.3N 136.6E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.6N 135.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.4N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.5N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.7N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 27.4N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 31.7N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 37.6N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 43.0N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 211400 RRD *** 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 37.6N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 43.0N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 211400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.4N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 211400 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.5N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.7N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 211400 RRC *** 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 27.4N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 31.7N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 211400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.4N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.5N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.7N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 27.4N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 31.7N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 37.6N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 43.0N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.0N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 29.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.4N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 40.9N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 147.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 211432 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 TWO MICROWAVE PASSES...A TRMM PASS AT 0950Z AND AN AQUA PASS AT 0907Z...SUGGEST THAT HILARY MAY NOT BE QUIRE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS OVERNIGHT. THE TRMM PASS IN PARTICULAR SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE BANDING OR EYEWALL-LOOKING FEATURE WITH A CENTER NORTH OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO...ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUR THE CENTER LOCATION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT PENDING VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND HOPEFULLY SOME MORE CLARITY ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. HILARY IS MAINTAINING VERY COLD CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE HILARY REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FASTER DECAY OVER THE COLD WATER...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THE MICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE PRIOR TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11. HILARY IS SOUTH OF A MINOR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT WILL SHORTLY BYPASS THIS WEAKNESS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY AND STILL APPEARS TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENT ESTIMATE OF 11 KT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE MOTION THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS ALSO SOMEWHAT ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF A FAIRLY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 15.6N 106.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 107.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.3N 110.4W 85 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 18.1N 112.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 211432 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 1500Z SUN AUG 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 107.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.1N 112.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 211500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.0N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 29.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 211500 RRB *** 230000Z --- 32.4N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 40.9N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 147.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.0N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 29.4N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.4N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 40.9N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 147.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 211600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 105.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 105.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.4N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.3N 110.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.1N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.8N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 211500 *** WARNING 211500. WARNING VALID 221500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 930 HPA AT 22.8N 139.9E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 23.3N 139.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 22.8N 139.9E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 23.3N 139.5E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 231200UTC 25.6N 138.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 241200UTC 29.5N 138.1E 220NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 211600 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.8N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY ** WTPN31 PHNC 211600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 105.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 105.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.4N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 211600 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.3N 110.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.1N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 211600 RRD *** NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 211600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 105.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 105.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.4N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.3N 110.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.1N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.8N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 25.9N 147.4E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 29.5N 145.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 231200UTC 33.4N 145.3E 170NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 241200UTC 39.3N 150.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 211725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.08.2005 HURRICANE HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 105.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2005 14.8N 105.6W STRONG 00UTC 22.08.2005 16.9N 107.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 17.7N 110.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 18.6N 112.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 19.4N 114.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 19.8N 115.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 20.3N 115.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2005 21.0N 116.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 21.6N 117.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 22.4N 118.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 23.0N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 14.9N 30.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.08.2005 14.9N 30.8W 00UTC 23.08.2005 15.7N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 16.0N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 16.3N 38.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 16.3N 40.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211725