** WTPQ20 BABJ 210600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 210600 UTC 00HR 22.4N 140.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 23.9N 138.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.0N 137.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 29.1N 135.6E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 210600 *** WARNING 210600. WARNING VALID 220600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 22.4N 140.5E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 23.3N 139.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 25.1N 138.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 28.2N 136.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 22.4N 140.5E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 23.3N 139.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 230600UTC 25.1N 138.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 240600UTC 28.2N 136.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 25.0N 148.4E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 28.2N 146.7E 120NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 230600UTC 31.5N 144.7E 180NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 240600UTC 35.9N 145.1E 250NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 210600 *** WARNING 210600. WARNING VALID 220600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0512 GUCHOL (0512) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 25.0N 148.4E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 28.2N 146.7E WITH 120 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 31.5N 144.7E WITH 180 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 35.9N 145.1E WITH 250 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 210600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 210600UTC 22.4N 140.5E MOVEMENT NNW 4KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 220600UTC 24.0N 138.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 230600UTC 26.2N 137.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 240600UTC 29.2N 136.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 210730 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 21-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH AND NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTKO20 RKSL 210600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL ANALYSIS POSITION 210600UTC 25.0N 148.4E MOVEMENT NNW 9KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 220600UTC 27.7N 146.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT 48HR POSITION 230600UTC 30.9N 144.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 240600UTC 35.0N 143.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS GUCHOL 0512 (0512) INITIAL TIME 210600 UTC 00HR 25.0N 148.4E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 360KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 28.2N 146.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 31.6N 144.6E 988HPA 25M/S P+72HR 35.0N 144.9E 988HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 210833 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0900Z SUN AUG 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.7N 112.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 210833 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE IS SLOWLY INCREASING...WITH A VERY COLD CDO ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...WERE 77 AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. HILARY HAS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THIS SHEAR WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE PARAMETERS SHOWN TO BE IMPORTANT IN THE STATISTICAL SCHEME FOR FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...SUCH AS AN ABUNDANCE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERE... ARE PRESENT. CURIOUSLY... HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. MICROWAVE FIXES FROM SSM/I...AMSU...AND WINDSAT...HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. USING THESE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/11...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE TO THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENT...HILARY IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT 4-5 DAYS IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 14.6N 105.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 15.2N 107.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 15.9N 109.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 16.7N 112.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 114.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 140.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 140.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.3N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.1N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 25.1N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 30.3N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 36.2N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 41.4N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 140.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED EYE AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 210900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 140.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 140.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.3N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 210900 RRC *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 30.3N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 210900 RRD *** 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 36.2N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 41.4N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 140.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED EYE AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 210900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.1N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 25.1N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 140.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 140.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.3N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.1N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 25.1N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 30.3N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 36.2N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 41.4N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 140.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED EYE AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 148.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 148.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 26.8N 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 28.8N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 31.3N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 34.1N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 38.9N 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 148.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TY 11W HAS SHEARED THE CON- VECTION OF TS 12W EQUATORWARD AND RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 210900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 148.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 148.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 26.8N 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 28.8N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 31.3N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 34.1N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT ** WTPN32 PGTW 210900 RRB *** DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 38.9N 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 148.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TY 11W HAS SHEARED THE CON- VECTION OF TS 12W EQUATORWARD AND RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 148.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 148.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 26.8N 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 28.8N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 31.3N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 34.1N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 38.9N 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 148.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TY 11W HAS SHEARED THE CON- VECTION OF TS 12W EQUATORWARD AND RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 104.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 104.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.2N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.9N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.7N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.5N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 22.6N 140.3E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 23.0N 139.6E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 230600UTC 25.1N 138.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 240600UTC 28.2N 136.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 210900 *** WARNING 210900. WARNING VALID 220900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 955 HPA AT 22.6N 140.3E SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 23.0N 139.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 104.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 104.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.2N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.5N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.9N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.7N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 104.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 104.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.2N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.9N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.7N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.5N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 RRD *** NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 25.2N 148.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 28.0N 146.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 230600UTC 31.5N 144.7E 180NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 240600UTC 35.9N 145.1E 250NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT =