** WTSR20 WSSS 201800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 210000 UTC 00HR 22.0N 140.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 23.5N 138.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.6N 137.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 28.2N 136.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 210000 *** WARNING 210000. WARNING VALID 220000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 22.0N 140.7E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 23.4N 139.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 25.0N 138.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 28.0N 136.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 210000UTC 22.0N 140.7E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 220000UTC 23.4N 139.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 230000UTC 25.0N 138.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 240000UTC 28.0N 136.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 210228 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z SUN AUG 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 104.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 210229 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT HILARY HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. LATEST AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HILARY TO 90 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ERODED ON ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED SATES. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK BUT THEY ALL KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY THE GFDN...WHICH IS THE BASICALLY THE GFDL USING THE NOGAPS MODEL AS A BACKGROUND...TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD OVER BAJA. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND JUST NORTH OF HILARY REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 140.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 140.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.8N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.6N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.8N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 26.2N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 29.5N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.8N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 38.8N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 140.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SMALL EYE AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 140.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 140.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.8N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.6N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.8N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 26.2N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 29.5N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.8N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 38.8N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 140.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SMALL EYE AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 140.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 140.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.8N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.6N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.8N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 RRD *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.8N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 38.8N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 140.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SMALL EYE AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 RRC *** 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 26.2N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 29.5N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 149.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 149.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 25.1N 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.7N 147.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 28.2N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 29.3N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 31.1N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.9N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 37.2N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 148.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 149.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 149.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 25.1N 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.7N 147.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 RRB *** --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 28.2N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 29.3N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 31.1N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 149.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 149.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 25.1N 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.7N 147.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 28.2N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 29.3N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 31.1N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.9N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 37.2N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 148.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 RRC *** 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.9N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 37.2N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 148.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 104.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 104.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 14.9N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 15.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 16.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 17.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 210300UTC 22.2N 140.6E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 220300UTC 23.5N 139.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 230000UTC 25.0N 138.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 240000UTC 28.0N 136.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 210300 *** WARNING 210300. WARNING VALID 220300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0511 MAWAR (0511) 965 HPA AT 22.2N 140.6E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 23.5N 139.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 104.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 104.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 14.9N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 RRC *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 17.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 RRD *** ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 15.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 16.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 104.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 104.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 14.9N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 15.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 16.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 17.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 210300UTC 24.5N 148.5E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 220300UTC 27.3N 146.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 210540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.08.2005 HURRICANE HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 103.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.0N 103.9W MODERATE 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.5N 106.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 16.2N 109.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 16.5N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 17.1N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 17.3N 116.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 17.8N 118.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 18.0N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 18.7N 120.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 19.3N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.08.2005 19.7N 121.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 20.2N 122.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.1N 19.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2005 13.1N 19.7W WEAK 12UTC 21.08.2005 14.6N 25.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 14.8N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 15.7N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 15.6N 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 16.6N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 16.6N 36.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 17.5N 37.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2005 17.5N 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 17.5N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 16.3N 43.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 210540