** WTIN20 DEMS 200618 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 20-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 200600 UTC 00HR 21.1N 141.6E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 139.9E 985HPA 27M/S P+48HR 25.0N 137.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 27.8N 135.2E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 200600 *** WARNING 200600. WARNING VALID 210600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1000 HPA AT 21.1N 141.7E SOUTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 22.7N 139.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 25.0N 137.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 28.0N 134.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 200600UTC 21.1N 141.7E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 110NM FORECAST 24HF 210600UTC 22.7N 139.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 220600UTC 25.0N 137.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 230600UTC 28.0N 134.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 200600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 200600UTC 21.1N 141.6E MOVEMENT WNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 210600UTC 22.4N 139.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 220600UTC 25.5N 137.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 230600UTC 28.0N 135.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZ ED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// RMKS/ SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.4N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.6N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 31.0N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 34.2N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 141.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 200837 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005 HILARY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES AND A SMALL CDO-LIKED FEATURE ...WITH TOPS TO -80C AND COLDER...DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT... 35 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE THAT HAS FORMED SINCE 0615Z. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...BASED ON MICROWAVE POSITION ESTIMATES DURING THE PAST 5 HOURS. THIS MOTION AND INITIAL POSITION ARE A LITTLE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACKS AND POSITIONS. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS MEXICO. THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO COULD BE MORE WESTWARD...BUT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE 24-72H PERIOD...AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER THAT AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HILARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. USUALLY SUCH MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO RAPID STRENGTHENING ...BUT A NORMAL INTENSIFICATION RATE OF 20 KT PER 24 HOURS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH SSTS AND VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT HIGHER THAN THE GFDL...WHICH ONLY BRINGS HILARY UP TO 70 KT IN 84 HOURS. RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.7N 100.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.0N 102.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.6N 105.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 16.4N 109.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 19.5N 115.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 200838 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0900Z SAT AUG 20 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 99.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.0N 102.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 002 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 150.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 150.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.1N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.8N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 24.7N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.8N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.8N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 150.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 200900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 002 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 150.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 150.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.1N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.8N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 24.7N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.8N 144.9E ** WTPN32 PGTW 200900 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.8N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 150.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 002 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 150.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 150.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.1N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.8N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 24.7N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.8N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.8N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 150.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// RMKS/ SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.4N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.6N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 31.0N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 34.2N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 141.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 200900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005// RMKS/ SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 200900 RRB *** 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.4N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.6N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 200900 RRC *** 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 31.0N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 34.2N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 141.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 200900 *** WARNING 200900. WARNING VALID 210900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1000 HPA AT 21.3N 141.6E SOUTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 22.8N 139.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 200900UTC 21.3N 141.6E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 110NM FORECAST 24HF 210900UTC 22.8N 139.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 220600UTC 25.0N 137.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 230600UTC 28.0N 134.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 99.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 99.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.0N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.6N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.5N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.4N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 RRC *** 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 99.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 99.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.0N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.6N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 99.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 99.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.0N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.6N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.5N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.4N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 RRB *** 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.5N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.4N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT