** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 200000 UTC 00HR 20.6N 142.3E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 140.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 24.0N 138.0E 985HPA 27M/S P+72HR 27.0N 135.8E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 200000 *** WARNING 200000. WARNING VALID 210000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1000 HPA AT 20.8N 142.2E SOUTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 22.4N 140.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 24.7N 138.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 27.5N 135.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 20.8N 142.2E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 110NM FORECAST 24HF 210000UTC 22.4N 140.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 220000UTC 24.7N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 230000UTC 27.5N 135.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZ ED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.2N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.2N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.9N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, ** WTPN31 PGTW 200200 RRB *** 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.2N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.9N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 200200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.2N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 200200 RRC *** 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM ** WTPN31 PGTW 200200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.2N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.2N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.9N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, ** WTPN31 PGTW 200200 RRD *** SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, ** WTPN32 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192121Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 151.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 151.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.1N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.7N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 24.2N 147.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.9N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.4N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 150.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 192121Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 200233 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 0300Z SAT AUG 20 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 98.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 98.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 98.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.0N 100.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 98.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 200300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192121Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 151.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 151.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.1N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.7N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 24.2N 147.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.9N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 200300 RRB *** VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.4N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 150.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 192121Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192121Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 151.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 151.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.1N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.7N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 24.2N 147.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.9N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.4N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 150.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 192121Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 200241 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 30 KT AT 0000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A CLUSTER SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THERE IS ALSO A WARM SPOT IN INFRARED IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT IT IS TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS AN EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HILARY WITH 35 KT WINDS. HILARY IS MOVING BETWEEN 280-285 DEGREES AT 13-14 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR 48-72 HR...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD HILARY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR POSSIBLY EVEN NORTHWARD. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF TRACK MODELS DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH. THE 120 HR POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE MORE EASTWARD UKMET AND ECMWF. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS CALL FOR HILARY TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY MOTION OVER COLDER WATER AND GRADUAL WEAKENING. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL...AN EXPERIMENTAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 70% CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HR. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HILARY COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON A STRONGER SYSTEM...CLIMATOLOGY...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOWING A LARGE ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.7N 98.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 14.0N 100.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 14.5N 103.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 15.4N 106.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 200300 *** WARNING 200300. WARNING VALID 210300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) 1000 HPA AT 21.0N 141.9E SOUTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 22.8N 140.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 21.0N 141.9E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 110NM FORECAST 24HF 210300UTC 22.8N 140.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 220000UTC 24.7N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 230000UTC 27.5N 135.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 200418 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 2 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 20 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM MAWAR MOVING AWAY FROM NORTHERN MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. IT REMAINS UNLIKELY THAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AGRIHAN AND PAGAN SINCE DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESE ISLANDS. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAWAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 315 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 470 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN 515 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA...AND 545 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM MAWAR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 50 MPH...BUT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM MAWAR. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 98.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 98.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.0N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.5N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.4N 106.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.4N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 98.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 98.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.0N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.5N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 RRC *** 230000Z --- 18.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.4N 106.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.4N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILARY) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 98.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 98.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.0N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.5N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.4N 106.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.4N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.2N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.2N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.9N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 RRC *** 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.2N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 RRB *** 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.2N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.9N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 RRD *** SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.2N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.2N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.9N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.2N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 200526 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 98.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 RECENTLY NAMED HILARY VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2005 13.8N 98.5W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2005 14.0N 101.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.4N 104.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2005 14.6N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 14.6N 108.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 15.7N 110.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 17.9N 112.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 17.9N 114.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 18.7N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 20.3N 115.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 22.0N 116.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 23.6N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 24.7N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 68.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2005 21.5N 68.6W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2005 22.3N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2005 22.7N 73.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2005 22.9N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 23.0N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 23.5N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 23.7N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 24.6N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 24.5N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 26.0N 84.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 26.3N 86.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 26.1N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2005 27.1N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 14.7N 18.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.7N 18.6W WEAK 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.6N 23.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 13.6N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 15.5N 29.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 15.5N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 16.3N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 16.5N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 16.5N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 16.4N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200526