** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 95.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 95.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.8N 97.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.5N 99.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.0N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 RRC *** --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191321ZAUG05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 191330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 95.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 95.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.8N 97.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.5N 99.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.0N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.5N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.5N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.5N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191321ZAUG05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 191330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.// ** WTJP21 RJTD 191800 *** WARNING 191800. WARNING VALID 201800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0511 MAWAR (0511) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 20.5N 142.6E SOUTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 21.7N 140.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 23.5N 138.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 26.3N 137.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 191800UTC 20.5N 142.6E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 201800UTC 21.7N 140.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 211800UTC 23.5N 138.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 221800UTC 26.3N 137.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 191800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0511 MAWAR ANALYSIS POSITION 191800UTC 20.4N 142.5E MOVEMENT W 5KT PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 201800UTC 21.7N 140.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 211800UTC 23.8N 138.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 221800UTC 26.2N 136.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ43 KNHC 192031 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS BUT DEVOID OF AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS BY DAY 5. BECAUSE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SMALL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER GYRE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ON ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT ON A TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.6N 97.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 14.0N 100.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 102.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 192031 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 2100Z FRI AUG 19 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 97.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 100.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 102.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 97.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.2N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.8N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.7N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 29.6N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 32.6N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND HAS MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.2N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.8N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 RRC *** 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 29.6N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 32.6N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 RRB *** 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.7N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 RRD *** SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND HAS MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.2N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.8N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.7N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 29.6N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 32.6N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 142.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND HAS MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 97.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 97.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.0N 100.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.5N 102.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 192100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0511 MAWAR (0511) ANALYSIS PSTN 192100UTC 20.6N 142.4E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 202100UTC 22.0N 140.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 211800UTC 23.5N 138.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 221800UTC 26.3N 137.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN21 PGTW 192130 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 050819180000 2005081918 22.4 152.0 24.0 148.8 120 22.6 151.5 192130 0508192121 2 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 192121Z AUG 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192121Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192130)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.4N 152.0E TO 24.0N 148.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 191730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 151.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 202130Z. // WP, 90, 2005081618, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1582E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081700, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1574E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081706, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1565E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081712, , BEST, 0, 215N, 1557E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081718, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1554E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081800, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1551E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081806, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1549E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081812, , BEST, 0, 219N, 1545E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081818, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1538E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081900, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1529E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081906, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1524E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081912, , BEST, 0, 224N, 1520E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081918, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1515E, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 RRA *** 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 97.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 97.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.0N 100.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.5N 102.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.5N 108.0W ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 97.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 97.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.0N 100.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.5N 102.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 192204 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2 8 AM GUAM LST SAT AUG 20 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MAWAR NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AGRIHAN AND PAGAN SINCE DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THESE ISLANDS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAWAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 310 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 465 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 470 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 510 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA...AND 545 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM MAWAR IS MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPN21 PGTW 192130 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 050819180000 2005081918 22.4 152.0 24.0 148.8 120 22.6 151.5 192130 0508192121 2 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 192121Z AUG 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192121Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192130)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.4N 152.0E TO 24.0N 148.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 191730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 151.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 202130Z. // WP, 90, 2005081618, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1582E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081700, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1574E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081706, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1565E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081712, , BEST, 0, 215N, 1557E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081718, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1554E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081800, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1551E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081806, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1549E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081812, , BEST, 0, 219N, 1545E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081818, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1538E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081900, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1529E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081906, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1524E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081912, , BEST, 0, 224N, 1520E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081918, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1515E, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN21 PGTW 192130 RRB *** , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081818, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1538E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081900, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1529E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081906, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1524E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081912, , BEST, 0, 224N, 1520E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081918, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1515E, 20, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN21 PGTW 192130 RRA *** ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 050819180000 2005081918 22.4 152.0 24.0 148.8 120 22.6 151.5 192130 0508192121 2 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 192121Z AUG 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192121Z AUG 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192130)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.4N 152.0E TO 24.0N 148.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 191730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 151.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 202130Z. // WP, 90, 2005081618, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1582E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081700, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1574E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081706, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1565E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081712, , BEST, 0, 215N, 1557E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081718, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1554E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081800, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1551E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081806, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1549E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 90, 2005081812, , BEST, 0, 219N, 1545E, 10, 1008, DB, 0, ** WTPQ20 BABJ 192100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MAWAR 0511 (0511) INITIAL TIME 192100 UTC 00HR 20.5N 142.4E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 240KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 139.5E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 23.6N 137.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 26.6N 135.8E 990HPA 23M/S=