** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 191330 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 94.5W TO 13.7N 98.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 191145Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 94.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201330Z. // EP, 90, 2005081718, , BEST, 0, 101N, 878W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081800, , BEST, 0, 104N, 888W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081806, , BEST, 0, 108N, 897W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081812, , BEST, 0, 111N, 907W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 917W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 90, 2005081900, , BEST, 0, 117N, 925W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 941W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 90, 2005081912, , BEST, 0, 126N, 949W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, ** WTPN21 PGTW 191330 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 94.5W TO 13.7N 98.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 191145Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 94.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201330Z. // EP, 90, 2005081718, , BEST, 0, 101N, 878W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081800, , BEST, 0, 104N, 888W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081806, , BEST, 0, 108N, 897W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081812, , BEST, 0, 111N, 907W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 917W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 90, 2005081900, , BEST, 0, 117N, 925W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 90, 2005081906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 941W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 90, 2005081912, , BEST, 0, 126N, 949W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, ** WTPN21 PHNC 191330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191321Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 94.5W TO 13.7N 98.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191145Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 94.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.6N 94.9W, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201330Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 191200UTC 20.8N 142.9E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 201200UTC 21.3N 140.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190521Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.3N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.9N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.6N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.7N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.7N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 142.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190521Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 190530) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190521Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.3N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.9N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.6N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.7N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.7N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 142.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190521Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 190530) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 191500 RRB *** 210000Z --- 22.6N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.7N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.7N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 191500 RRC *** 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 142.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190521Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 190530) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 191500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190521Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.3N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.9N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPZ23 KNHC 191435 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005 1500Z FRI AUG 19 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.8N 97.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 99.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 95.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 191451 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT THE GFDL AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE LATTER MAKES THE DEPRESSION A POWERFUL 100-KT HURRICANE. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS...SO THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD LEVEL OFF. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 13.2N 95.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.8N 97.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.5N 99.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 103.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/191321Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 95.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 95.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.8N 97.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.5N 99.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.0N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.5N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.5N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.5N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191321ZAUG05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 191330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 191500UTC 20.8N 142.8E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 201500UTC 21.3N 140.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 191556 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 2 AM GUAM LST SAT AUG 20 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W FORMS NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AGRIHAN AND PAGAN SINCE FORECAST DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THESE ISLANDS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 245 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 285 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 455 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 505 MILES NORTH OF ROTA...AND 540 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...21.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.7 DEGREES EAST...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM SATURDAY GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ HENDRICKS/ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 191714 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 93.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2005 13.0N 93.3W WEAK 00UTC 20.08.2005 13.8N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 14.4N 98.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.4N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2005 14.8N 103.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.08.2005 16.2N 106.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 17.2N 108.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 18.1N 110.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 18.7N 111.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 19.6N 112.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 20.3N 112.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2005 21.5N 112.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2005 23.2N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 15.7N 20.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2005 15.7N 20.3W WEAK 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.5N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 14.8N 27.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 14.0N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 15.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 15.7N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 16.7N 39.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 18.2N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 18.3N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2005 19.3N 46.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191714