** WTIN20 DEMS 190600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 19-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPN21 PGTW 190530 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 190521Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 143.9E TO 22.1N 140.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 190230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 143.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONGLY IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY FOR APPROXIMATELY THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WEAK WESTWARD STEERING. CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200530Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TIME OF METSAT IMAGERY USED TO DETERMINE POSITION.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 190530 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 190521Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 143.9E TO 22.1N 140.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 190230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 143.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONGLY IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY FOR APPROXIMATELY THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WEAK WESTWARD STEERING. CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200530Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TIME OF METSAT IMAGERY USED TO DETERMINE POSITION.//