** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 190530 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 143.9E TO 22.1N 140.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 050230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200530Z. // WP, 92, 2005081800, , BEST, 0, 203N, 1437E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081806, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1435E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081812, , BEST, 0, 205N, 1433E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081818, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1431E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081900, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1429E, 15, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN21 PGTW 190530 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 143.9E TO 22.1N 140.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 050230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200530Z. // WP, 92, 2005081800, , BEST, 0, 203N, 1437E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081806, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1435E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081812, , BEST, 0, 205N, 1433E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081818, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1431E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 92, 2005081900, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1429E, 15, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN21 PGTW 190530 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 190521Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 143.9E TO 22.1N 140.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 050230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 143.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONGLY IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY FOR APPROXIMATELY THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WEAK WESTWARD STEERING. CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200530Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 190530 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 190521Z AUG 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 143.9E TO 22.1N 140.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 050230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 143.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONGLY IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY FOR APPROXIMATELY THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WEAK WESTWARD STEERING. CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200530Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 190548 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.7N 119.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2005 17.7N 119.0W WEAK 12UTC 19.08.2005 17.8N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 17.9N 121.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 17.3N 123.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 17.2N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2005 16.2N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 15.6N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 14.5N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 13.7N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 13.0N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 12.8N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 12.9N 139.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 13.1N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.2N 91.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2005 12.2N 91.6W WEAK 12UTC 19.08.2005 12.9N 93.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2005 13.5N 95.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 13.6N 98.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 13.8N 100.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.2N 103.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.08.2005 16.3N 105.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 17.7N 108.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 18.8N 110.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 19.4N 111.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 20.2N 112.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 21.1N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 21.7N 113.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 14.7N 18.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.7N 18.4W WEAK 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.6N 21.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 16.8N 24.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 17.0N 28.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 17.0N 31.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 17.1N 33.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 18.1N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 19.5N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2005 20.4N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190548