** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 181434 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z THU AUG 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 47.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 40 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT 34 KT.......360NE 360SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 47.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.0N 47.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IRENE. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 181435 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005 ...IRENE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IRENE IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415 MILES ...665 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...45.0 N... 47.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IRENE. FUTURE INFORMATION...IF ANY...ON THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 181438 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005 IRENE HAS ACCELERATED FURTHER AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 40 KT. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY FROM SATELLITE PICTURES...SUCH A FAST FORWARD MOTION WOULD SUPPORT 50 KT WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED EXTRATROPICAL LOW JUST EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INDICATING THAT IRENE IS TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF IRENE WILL SOON BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE...AND SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IRENE. FUTURE INFORMATION...IF ANY...ON THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 45.0N 47.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 19/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 181453 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z THU AUG 18 2005 ...CORRECTED FORECAST VALID TIME TO 19/0000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 47.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 40 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT 34 KT.......360NE 360SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 47.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.0N 47.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IRENE. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 181722 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.2N 89.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2005 11.2N 89.8W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2005 12.2N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 12.7N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 12.8N 95.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 12.8N 97.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 13.6N 99.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.2N 103.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.08.2005 16.4N 105.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 17.9N 107.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 19.2N 109.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 19.7N 110.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 20.3N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2005 20.7N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 42.9N 49.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2005 42.9N 49.1W MODERATE 00UTC 19.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 59.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2005 18.1N 59.8W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 13.8N 17.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2005 13.8N 17.0W WEAK 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.3N 19.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 15.7N 23.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 16.4N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 16.7N 28.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2005 17.8N 30.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2005 18.7N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2005 20.5N 35.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181722