** WTIN20 DEMS 180630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 18-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT44 KNHC 180823 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005 IRENE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST 6 HOURS NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS FULLY CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/30. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES BETWEEN 17/21Z AND 18/02Z. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AT FORWARD SPEEDS OF 35-40 KT...OR HIGHER...THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 41.3N 51.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 18/1800Z 46.0N 46.1W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 19/0600Z 54.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 180824 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z THU AUG 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 51.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 105SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 350SE 100SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 51.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 52.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.0N 46.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 54.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...175NE 250SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 51.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 180830 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005 ...IRENE ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 625 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR. THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS IRENE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...41.3 N... 51.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 180831 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN AUG 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 54.0N 40.0W 25 X X X 25 HIBERNIA OILFLD 12 X X X 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 180849 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 55 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST JUEVES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE ACELERANDO RAPIDAMENTE HACIA EL NORESTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS FRIAS DEL LEJANO ATLANTICO NORTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 41.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.0 OESTE O COMO A 385 MILLAS... 625 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE CABO RACE TERRANOVA. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 35 MPH... 56 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CON UN AMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO HOY A MEDIDA QUE IRENE SE MUEVE SOBRE AGUAS MAS FRIAS Y PIERDE SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 120 MILLAS... 195 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...41.3 NORTE... 51.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 35 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$