** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 180226 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005 THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MOTION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF IRENE WAS GREATLY AIDED BY MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS THIS EVENING. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2225Z INDICATED THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING AT 060/17...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO DISENGAGE FROM THE STILL STRONG CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2150Z SHOWED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 60 KT...BUT THAT THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED INWARD. IN PARTICULAR...THE CIRCULATION IS SHRINKING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST THINKING...WHICH HAS IRENE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER... THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS ALREADY TAKEN IRENE TOO QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFS SHOWS IRENE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...BUT GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS IT MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER FOR IRENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 38.8N 54.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 41.9N 50.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 48.0N 44.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 180227 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z THU AUG 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 54.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 105SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 350SE 100SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 54.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 41.9N 50.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...175NE 250SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 180228 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED AUG 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT AUG 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 48.0N 44.5W 25 X X X 25 HIBERNIA OILFLD 18 X X X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 180228 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED AUG 17 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES... 885 KM... SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...38.8 N... 54.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 180546 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.08.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 11.2N 89.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2005 11.2N 89.3W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2005 12.2N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 12.8N 92.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 13.6N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 13.8N 98.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.7N 101.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.5N 104.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2005 17.1N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 18.7N 109.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 20.2N 111.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 21.1N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2005 21.5N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N 55.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2005 38.6N 55.5W MODERATE 12UTC 18.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180546