** WTNT24 KNHC 172030 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z WED AUG 17 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 56.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 56.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 41.1N 52.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 47.1N 46.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 55.5N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 300SE 225SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...ABSORBED. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 56.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER COBB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 172030 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005 THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON IRENE AND THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE. AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK NUMBERS FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS PICKED UP TO 050/18...INDICATING THAT THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO 28N68W THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS OVER IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY LOWER SSTS WITHIN 12 HOURS...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVER THE COOLER WATERS AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS...OR SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS WEB PAGE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OUT TO 200 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM VESSEL ELVX2. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 38.5N 56.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 41.1N 52.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 47.1N 46.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/0600Z 55.5N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 172030 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 17 2005 ...IRENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AND ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...38.5 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 172031 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT AUG 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 47.1N 46.9W 26 5 X X 31 CAPE RACE NFLD 4 X X X 4 55.5N 40.5W X 12 X X 12 HIBERNIA OILFLD 24 3 X X 27 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH/COBB $$