** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 171440 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE AND IS NOW EXPERIENCING WESTERLY SHEAR. AN AVERAGE OF THE DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL 34 AND 50 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0935 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 070/10...AND INDICATES SOME ACCELERATION OVER THE PREVIOUS AVERAGE 6 HOUR MOTION OF 080/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COASTS AND IS SWEEPING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. THIS SAME FEATURE HAS ALSO INTRODUCED THE STRONG WESTERLY MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY LOWER SSTS WITHIN 24 HOURS...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST TRACK THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED TO 36 HOURS. THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. BEYOND THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD HOOK UP WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 18-24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS. ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 37.1N 58.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 38.8N 55.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 43.0N 50.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 50.5N 44.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/1200Z 59.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 171440 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z WED AUG 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 58.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 225SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 58.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.8N 55.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 50.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 59.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 350SE 250SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 58.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER COBB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 171441 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED AUG 17 2005 ...IRENE WEAKENS TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...37.1 N... 58.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 171507 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED AUG 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT AUG 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 43.0N 50.5W 23 7 X X 30 CAPE RACE NFLD 1 3 X X 4 50.5N 44.0W X 12 5 X 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD 1 17 X X 18 59.5N 36.0W X X 8 X 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 171711 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.08.2005 HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.0N 59.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.08.2005 37.0N 59.3W MODERATE 00UTC 18.08.2005 37.8N 55.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.2N 88.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.08.2005 8.2N 88.1W WEAK 00UTC 18.08.2005 9.5N 87.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 10.2N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 11.0N 89.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 11.9N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 12.9N 93.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 13.7N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.5N 100.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.4N 103.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 16.3N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 17.7N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 18.7N 108.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 18.0N 113.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.08.2005 18.0N 113.1W WEAK 00UTC 18.08.2005 18.2N 114.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 18.2N 115.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 18.0N 117.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2005 18.8N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 18.5N 119.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2005 15.7N 120.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 15.7N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.7N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 14.5N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2005 14.0N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2005 12.7N 131.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 12.0N 134.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 12.9N 17.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2005 12.9N 17.0W WEAK 00UTC 21.08.2005 13.6N 18.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2005 14.5N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2005 13.3N 28.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2005 12.7N 31.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2005 12.7N 33.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2005 12.8N 36.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171711