** WTIN20 DEMS 170715 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 17-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH-EAST BAY OF BENGAL, AND SOUTH-EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT44 KNHC 170832 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005 THE LAST COUPLE OF SSMI AND TRMM OVERPASSES CLEARLY INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THAT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS ERODED THE EYE FEATURE AND HAS TILTED IT EASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY AT LEAST 30 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO COME DOWN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/7...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS HAS BEEN 090/06. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COASTS IS INDUCING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LAGGING BEHIND IN WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND A BROAD FRONTAL LOW. HOWEVER...AS BOTH THE SHORTAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL LOW APPROACH IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE WHERE SSTS DROP OFF SHARPLY INTO THE 14-16C RANGE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THEREAFTER...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD HOOK UP WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS OF THE NOW TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE... IRENE WILL STILL BE OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER AND KEEP THE SYSTEM GOING AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A QUICK DEMISE TO THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 36.6N 60.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 37.7N 57.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 41.0N 52.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 46.7N 46.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/0600Z 54.7N 39.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 170833 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z WED AUG 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 60.1W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 65SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 250SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 60.1W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 60.6W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.7N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 65SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 41.0N 52.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.7N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 200SE 200SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 54.7N 39.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 350SE 250SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 170834 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED AUG 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT AUG 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 41.0N 52.8W 32 6 X X 38 ILE ST PIERRE X 2 X X 2 46.7N 46.5W X 14 6 X 20 CAPE RACE NFLD X 8 2 X 10 54.7N 39.2W X X 8 X 8 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 13 6 X 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 170837 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED AUG 17 2005 ...IRENE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT 785 MILES...1265 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...36.6 N... 60.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 170848 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 51 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 36.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.1 OESTE O COMO A 785 MILLAS... 1265 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CABO RACE TERRA NOVA. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE OCURRA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE O NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 85 MPH... 140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 983 MB...29.03 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...36.6 NORTE... 60.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 983 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$