** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 29.2N 112.7E 999HPA 14M/S= P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 29.2N 111.8E 999HPA 14M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT44 KNHC 170228 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 A WARM SPOT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND THE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IRENE CONTINUES TO BE LARGELY SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG BELT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N LATITUDE. IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS 48 HOUR FORECAST OF A 68 KT HURRICANE OVER 15C WATER IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A BAROCLINIC KICK FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF IRENE VIGOROUS UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/8. IRENE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES IRENE'S LONGITUDE...THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY...AND CORRECTLY... TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 36.6N 60.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 37.1N 58.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 39.0N 55.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 43.3N 49.3W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 170229 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z WED AUG 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 60.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 250SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 60.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 37.1N 58.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 39.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.3N 49.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 200SE 200SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 350SE 250SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 60.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 170230 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI AUG 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 39.0N 55.0W 28 8 X X 36 ILE ST PIERRE X X 2 X 2 43.3N 49.3W X 22 5 X 27 CAPE RACE NFLD X 1 6 X 7 50.0N 42.0W X X 15 X 15 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 3 17 X 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 170230 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 ...IRENE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EASTWARD... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR ABOUT 790 MILES...1275 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...IRENE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AGAIN. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...36.6 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 170520 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 17.0N 114.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2005 17.0N 114.9W WEAK 12UTC 18.08.2005 16.7N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 16.9N 117.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 16.7N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 16.2N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 15.6N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2005 14.7N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.5N 60.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2005 36.5N 60.8W MODERATE 12UTC 17.08.2005 37.6N 59.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 39.1N 56.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170520