** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 18.7N 121.5E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.4N 117.4E 985HPA 30M/S P+48HR 24.0N 114.6E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.9N 113.2E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120300 UTC 00HR 19.1N 120.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 19.2N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 116.8E 985HPA 30M/S P+48HR 24.1N 114.4E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 26.0N 113.0E 995HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120900 UTC 00HR 19.5N 119.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 116.0E 985HPA 30M/S P+48HR 25.3N 113.5E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.4N 115.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 27.8N 112.5E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 17.6N 124.7E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 120.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.5N 118.5E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.4N 116.4E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 21.2N 118.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.8N 115.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 28.4N 112.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 122100 UTC 00HR 22.2N 117.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 22.9N 117.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.8E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.4N 110.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 22.9N 117.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.8E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.4N 110.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 110900 UTC 00HR 17.9N 124.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 120.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.9N 118.1E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.6N 116.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 23.3N 116.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT34 KNHC 162027 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 ...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...THREAT TO SHIPPING... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 830 MILES...1335 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...36.5 N... 61.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 162027 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z TUE AUG 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 61.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 61.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.2N 60.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.0N 52.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 250SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 47.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 180SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 420SE 420SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 56.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 240SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 162029 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI AUG 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.8N 57.3W 27 6 X X 33 ILE ST PIERRE X X 1 2 3 42.0N 52.5W 1 18 8 X 27 CAPE RACE NFLD X 1 6 3 10 47.0N 46.0W X X 13 4 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 12 4 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 23.8N 116.8E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.6E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.6N 110.4E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 24.3N 116.4E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.7N 113.6E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 30.2N 110.3E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 24.8N 115.7E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.9N 111.5E HPA M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 24.8N 115.7E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.9N 111.5E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTNT44 KNHC 162127 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED AND ITS EMBEDDED DISTANCE WITHIN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS WAS LARGE ENOUGH TO YIELD A T NUMBER OF 5.0 AT 18Z...CORRESPONDING TO 90 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT AND THE EYE BECAME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KNOTS. IRENE'S CONTINUED EASTWARD TRACK HAS KEPT THE HURRICANE MOSTLY SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG BELT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N LATITUDE. IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE LOOKS SUSPECT... SINCE IT KEEPS IRENE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS...BY WHICH TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 37 KNOTS WITH A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEG C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING THAN SHIPS...BUT MAINTAINS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM OUT TO 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSOREBED BY...OR MERGE WITH...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. IRENE HAS CONTINUED ITS UNEXPECTEDLY PROLONGED EASTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SOON BE APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD INTRODUCE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...AND INDUCE A LEFTWARD TURN IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AT THAT FORECAST TIME. BY THEN...HOWEVER...IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY NO LONGER HAVE RETAINED ITS IDENTITY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 36.5N 61.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 37.2N 60.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 42.0N 52.5W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1800Z 47.0N 46.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1800Z 56.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131500 UTC 00HR 25.3N 115.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 26.2N 115.2E 996HPA 17M/S P12HR N 25KM/H P+24HR 30.6N 114.2E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 26.2N 115.2E 996HPA 17M/S P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 30.6N 114.2E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 26.8N 115.0E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 31.0N 114.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 27.5N 114.5E 999HPA 14M/S P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 31.3N 113.4E 1002HPA 10M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 28.5N 113.1E 999HPA 14M/S P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 110.2E 1002HPA 10M/S=